Urbanisation vs Ruralisation: From COVID-19 to the promised land

Social distancing may be here to stay for a longer period. Therefore, mechanisms should be perused in setting up a new culture of ‘working from home’ (WFH) wherever possible. Limited number of essential employees needed in the office physically needs to be identified while all others requiring to work from home under proper supervision and reporting

By Dr. Dinesh Watawana

The days of globalisation as we know it may be numbered! Global migrations may just see an about-turn in the wake of the COVID-19 onslaught with masses around the world rushing back to their roots.  

Ruralisation may just be the new normal as social distancing seems set to take root, halting urbanisation, perhaps, for the time being. It is in this hiatus we call ‘lockdown’ the Government may find a rare chance to correct course and restore some balance between urbanisation and rural inequality that leads to the exodus.

Sri Lankans are among a global exodus of migrants desperate to rush back to their homelands and the phenomena may not just be a knee-jerk reaction, as events unfold in the coming weeks, months and perhaps years.  

Even more noteworthy may be internal migrations, which may see impact on its curve. As the world hurtles down into a deep recession, economic migrations will be blocked by most countries while internal migrations will suffer due to lack of opportunity. Ironically, the corona pandemic may also be our greatest opportunity yet!

We may be upon the age of ruralisation, enforced by the powers of nature – as a last-gap resort to saving mankind from self-annihilation. There are tell-tale signs that the blue planet is healing already – even as two-third of the world is imprisoned into frustrating lockdowns.  

People are off the streets, so are the world’s vehicle population; factories are taking breathers and once rumbling metropolises and industrialised cities are beginning to look like ghost towns. Climate change is in house-arrest and the world heals! But this window of opportunity may soon fade away as the rush to reopen the country gathers momentum.

The Government may need to respond with lightning speed. First, to save the people from the corona pandemic and prevent anarchy setting in! Secondly, to appoint a new order built on the new norm of social distancing.

It is not incorrect to pin globalisation on man’s insatiable appetite for riches. On the other hand, unequal distribution of wealth and opportunity has drawn us into the red zone of calamitous disasters, highlighted by the sufferings of the masses during the lockdowns.  

Now, it is up to the Government to seize the window of opportunity offered by the corona pandemic to reverse the pandemic of urbanisation with politics no longer a stumbling block to prudent policy decisions. The invitation here is to seize the ‘moment’ to explore ‘crisis opportunity’ which allows a rare window for creating a balance between urbanisation and rural inequality.

Action outline

For the Government of Sri Lanka, the current debacle presents an invaluable opportunity to correct course. The current ‘crisis-opportunity’ involves the following areas:

Reverse the trend for urbanisation 

Create self-sufficient townships and keep people closer to home

The current crisis lends immense opportunity to correct course in steering towards SDGs. By creating new empowered economic and administrative zones, the Government may make its previous attempts at decentralising the administration more efficient.  

State institutions, as well as, private sector may be required, as part of social distancing, to decentralise operations, whereby negating the need for constant travel between districts. Reassigning employees to areas which also facilitates the education of their children in their own localities holds plenty of promise, going forward.  

Creating good infrastructure by deploying the private sector into decentralising its own operations will be a good start. This may be an invaluable opportunity to build the future city of Hambantota as a role model and develop all other areas as well. We may need to look at a new admin paradigm.  

One of the most vital aspects to restoring a balance between urban and rural landscapes is creating some equality in infrastructure, operating systems, wealth, education, employment, housing and supply chain etc. 

While the world is on pause, think-tanks around the world are burning the midnight oil while governments struggle to cope with the unfolding crises. It is in our own interest to grab the lessons and opportunity!  If there ever was a time to do the spadework it is now!

Positive impact: Negates need for migration, community health, family wellbeing, time and resource saving, minimising traffic congestions and pollution, and economic and social equality.

Introduce vehicle distancing

This is also a great opportunity to introduce Vehicle Distancing. What is being proposed is a system of demarcating and restricting entry into congested cities by affording opportunity locally. 

The gains clocked on the climate change front cannot be reversed and the Government must build on the prevailing restrictions by considering the following developmental alternatives which will lead to levelling out the need for migration and disproportionate travel between districts especially into urban centres.

Capitalise on social distancing to create satellite schools  

Make e-learning a considerable portion of the five-day week and for the foreseeable future a requisite as we protect our children from an unknown enemy. 

As we take measured steps to reopen, consider possibility of creating satellite schools administered around popular urban schools which could be asked to separate student rosters into zones i.e. Colombo North, East and South and establish smaller clusters run by the same administration and same staff – only new, smaller centres of excellence, where students could be schooling near home.  

Consider the time and resources saved and the wellbeing of youth. In the long-term, this system could evolve into permanent branches of elite schools also established in other districts in order to mitigate the need for urbanisation. There is also a compelling need to re-engineer our education system to sync with the times and this again is the time!

Positive impact: Smaller classes and better learning, community health, student wellbeing, time and resource saving, minimising traffic congestions and pollution, and economic and social equality.

Work from home or a branch near you

Social distancing may be here to stay for a longer period. Therefore, mechanisms should be perused in setting up a new culture of ‘working from home’ (WFH) wherever possible. Limited number of essential employees needed in the office physically needs to be identified while all others requiring to work from home under proper supervision and reporting.  

Introducing staggered working hours too may be considered. Meetings could be continued on audio/video conferencing as a continuing practice. New business model recommended. In the old system, employees spent hours commuting to and from work and then spent half the ‘work time’ simply conforming to strict stipulations where employers spent time and money on building efficiency models and schemes for supervising.  

At the same time, attitudes and work ethic of modern-day people have evolved scarily where a revolutionary paradigm shift is now called for and again, this is the time! A new WFH culture based on quality over quantity and rewarded on performance may be how we will create opportunity in the future. As we look to build a self-sufficient society, it will also provide people time for their families and to engage in extra economic activity like home- gardening on self-employment.

Positive impact: Community health, employee wellbeing, time and resource saving, minimising traffic congestions and pollution, enhanced efficiency and economical use of resources, cost-cuttings, and economic and social equality.

Grow locally

Immediate diversification and value-addition opportunities for businesses in hiatus and will remain non-functional for a considerable period of time must be established by way of a Business Incubator and creating a new supplier network to expand businesses in demand and/or to expand existing large businesses through broadening of supply chain. Such incubators should be dispersed across the country connected to a well-oiled network. 

The current crisis demands that we take a deep dive into areas like food production and distribution along with other essential commodities and services. Should we not look inward as pitfalls of globalisation cast a gloom? Perhaps, a better balancing act? While the world is healing, we have also been forced to cut our import bill. On the other hand, shortages will loom. Can we explore identifying new industries and empowering local productions under the blanket of the COVID-19?  

Identification of components/appliances/raw material in demand and has been affected due to import restrictions and initiating a plan for new local manufacturing by channelling existing factories, as well as, encouraging diversification. This requires a thorough analysis on our existing capabilities, and maintaining a database on those, which should be updated on frequent time intervals and encouraging setting up of factories with global brands and our very own!

Identify value-addition, resourceful business amplification i.e. new products in demand, converting hotels into up-scale offices, resorts into high-tech crop incubators, pooling excess vehicles and shipping to African continent to tap into thriving market; there’s an ideas galore.  

The world war disrupted lives and sent unemployment skyward but governments created war economies and sent unemployed youth into factories – the rest is history and it’s time we create our own piece of history!

Business migration mechanism 

As small businesses face the threat of collapse and unemployment raises its ugly head, troubled businesses and individuals should be encouraged to move into expanding sectors like agriculture and local food production which suddenly see recognition.

Perusal of ‘crisis opportunity’ in the global market and preparing the way for local businesses to respond to the demand are need of the hour. The crisis on a global scale is opening up exciting opportunity for Sri Lanka through export opportunity. Make a robust export reorientation plan for immediate execution.

Identification of natural inland resources and setting up a well-orchestrated system of tapping into same giving due consideration to sustainable goals are a must! Make use of the opportunity to install green practices and fair trade, as well as, a new order in doing business through setting up of mechanisms, enforcement, incentives and creating awareness.

Positive impact: Creation of self-sufficiency, balance of trade, economic healing, improved gdp, and localised opportunity in rural areas.

Grow a new economy in the vast oceans

Action plan to maximise oceanic resources merits immediate attention, not just for internal consumption but for exports, as well as, a contingency plan of self-sufficiency being an island, combining with agriculture. 

In fact, with Sri Lanka’s forest cover dwindling to little over 25%, why not look at building an entire ‘Ocean Economy’ or a ‘Floating Economy’ with the Indian Ocean, our new playground of exciting opportunity powered by renewable energy?

Positive impact: A new world of opportunity.

New value-chain

E-commerce is a life-saver today and we may be able to train a fair quota of the population to order online or on the phone, again cutting down traffic, resources and the need for close human contact. These training should cover both urban and rural segments by combining the concept with an innovative, well-coordinated logistics system which is already taking shape in urban areas during the lockdown. There are obviously many teething problems and needs to be examined and developed.

Global value creation

Opportune and timely promotion of the island as ‘world’s best’ wellbeing/healing destination. Market Sri Lanka’s acclaimed response to crisis management/humanitarian ops by creating a new organisation ready to respond to global emergences.

Mechanism for greater equity participation in troubled SMEs by offering a gateway to bring back large sums of money parked outside our shores. Resource centre/multi-media campaigns to support new idea/opportunity creation.

As the world literally heals, administrators have a duty to ensure we do not let the advantages slip.  The new work order must ensure environmental protection and should see to enforcing new societal habits that protect nature while creating better public health.

The recommendations made in this proposal are in brief form and is only designed to compliment existing efforts and must be further examined by ideally appointing a task force commissioned to be Sri Lanka’s new engine of growth. Cohesive implementation, monitoring and value-addition mechanism needs to be developed. Crisis intervention and crisis opportunity are interlaced where one cannot happen without the other and this is why COVID-19 is our greatest opportunity yet!  

(This article is based on a proposal submitted to the President of Sri Lanka by Contingency Intelligence and Response Agency, a think-tank and catalyst for an overarching disaster response mechanism in SAARC countries bringing scientific research, international cooperation and private sector resources together in support of the governments to be ‘crisis-ready’. Headquartered in Sri Lanka, CIRA will develop a base model in Sri Lanka while seeking to bring in regional partners to the task force. The SAARC Development Fund, University of Colombo and Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry are among CIRA’s partners in this exhaustive and challenging mission.)