Thank you, Mr. President

• What Sri Lankans can expect out of the unconstitutional coup by you!

By An Activist of the 2015 social media group

Already the feeling of uncertainty, lethargy and frustration is clearly seen among the ordinary Sri Lankans as the President of the country overnight plunged the country into a state of paralysis by his unlawful grab of power and handing over the same to a Prime Minister that has not been recognised by any international player, or the countrymen for that matter.

The repercussions to Sri Lanka are many and they will unfold one by one if this crisis is not resolved within the next few days as we are reaching two weeks since the dictatorial action was taken by the President.

Tourism the first casualty

Barely a week from the announcement by Lonely Planet that our island was the best destination for the global travellers for 2019, our so-called leader decided to make it an island that has international travel warnings. 

Indeed, tourism investors both local and foreign have taken risks but would have never dreamed or anticipated such an undemocratic action in the oldest democracy in Asia that would ruin their industry overnight. Now investments are at risk, thousands of jobs and potential jobs are at risk, the total domestic tourism supply chain and value chains will start yielding negative outcome.

Foreign Direct Investment

One would wonder why global capital inflows will come to Sri Lanka as such political instability is created every two to three years and dramatic policy changes occur. At the whims and fancies of politicians, tax adjustments are done and investment policies are changed. 

Within days of the political coup international outflow from the stock exchange and the bond market is clearly visible and local deal-making businessmen are trying to prop up the CSE artificially to support political favourites, making investor confidence lose further credibility in the long run.

Exports and services sector will be the next hit

Due credit has to be given for the work done by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe for working tirelessly to put export industry back on track, getting the fisheries ban lifted, GSP+ back, developing a national export strategy, expanding the political corporation with all countries and developing the market access tools such as FTAs and inward investment zones with a new trade policy to bring back export-led growth which has now increased to 16+% from 13% of GDP in 2014. 

Now that the world has clearly indicated that the President’s decision and the new Government is not recognised by any of them, it will be a matter of time that market access will start getting closed. Slowly but steadily, Sri Lanka’s buyers will move to other countries to secure supply chains for sourcing. This political miscalculation will be a huge hit for the export sector and the services sector that depend on it for years to come.

Interest rates and depreciation will get worse

interest rates and deprecation will depend on both local and external factors; it’s likely that by 2019 the rupee will further depreciate and interest rates will go up due to furthering of the deficit and increasing inflation due to money printing and populist political measures that will have to be taken by both parties due the current calamity to satisfy mostly the uneducated large voter base of Sri Lanka. Likely that economic growth and the debt situation will worsen as the damage done by this move is not short term but medium to long term.

Visas and travel restrictions will come into play for both business and holiday travellers 

Like it or not if you are a Sri Lankan passport holder, you will face rejection and delays in your holiday or business travel to most destinations. Students who wish to travel abroad too will have to wait longer to obtain visa approvals. Already foreign business travellers are cancelling their visits to Sri Lanka as their travel insurance costs are going up considerably if they are to visit Sri Lanka

Brain drain and skilled labour will continue to look outwards

Disgusted with the political turmoil created, it is clear that the average Sri Lankan is so frustrated after a 30-year-old war and continued political mayhem, they are looking at avenues to continue to leave the country as they don’t see a bright future for them or their children. 

Many future political leaders too are not trustworthy and ethical in behaviour, which gives no hope for the people but to seek greener pastures elsewhere by leaving the motherland for jobs and education and migration.

Economy will further backtrack; China will be the winner

It is likely that the domestic economy and the overall economy will slide back in 2019 if the process that is been carried on is not reversed fast and democracy and rule of law are established. We will be once again an isolated nation and may have to further compromise to China to survive for the medium term, giving the best possible hold to China to make the Indian Ocean island a Chinese colony without much effort.

Dug an eight-foot hole for the citizens of Sri Lanka

These are a few of the consequences the patriotic citizens will have to face but more will be in the offing if we go down the path of Mugabe of Zimbabwe. Certainly, Maithriplala Sirisena has dug an eight-foot hole to bury the citizens of this country as he decided to run this country without rule of law combined with uneducated thugs who are only worried about power, money and the rest of the evil. 

Sri Lanka will also have to face major other regional political challenges as the country has been dragged towards hell, to say the least. The sovereignty of this country itself will be questionable in the long run as it is unlikely that such rulers can bring in inclusiveness, peace and prosperity to the 21 million inhabitants of the island.