Republicans poised to ride Obama’s unpopularity to gains in US elections

Tuesday, 4 November 2014 00:13 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Reuters: Republicans are poised to pick up seats and could win control of the US Senate on Tuesday in midterm elections heavily influenced by deep voter dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama’s job performance.

Concern about the strength of the US economy, coupled with worries about Ebola and Islamic State militants, are driving the dour mood of a restive electorate. Democrats could pay the price when voters elect 36 senators, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 36 state governors. Obama’s name is not on the ballot, but his low job approval rating reflects a lack of confidence in his leadership during the sixth year of his presidency. Polls indicate Democrats have less enthusiasm for voting than Republicans, and history shows the party that is in power in the White House in midterm elections usually loses seats. “There doesn’t seem to be a lot of things for people to feel good about,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at the Southern Illinois University. “It may not be fair, but they tend to take those kinds of feelings out on the White House, and as a practical matter I think the Senate goes Republican.” In the House of Representatives, Republicans are expected to build on their majority of 233 seats to 199 for Democrats. They also will likely retain their majority in the number of governors’ seats they hold in state capitals. But the heavy campaign action has been in the 100-member Senate, where Republicans need to pick up six seats to reclaim the majority from Democrats and control both chambers of Congress for the first time since the 2006 election. While Republicans are expected to gain seats, as many as eight to 10 Senate races are still considered toss-ups that could go either way.

In boost to Cameron, popularity of UK opposition leader Miliband hits a low Reuters: British opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband’s approval rating has hit a record low, a poll showed on Sunday, raising further doubts about his ability to unseat Prime Minister David Cameron in a national election in just over six months.

The survey was published after polling data last week showed Miliband’s left-leaning party was set to be nearly wiped out in Scotland, a traditional stronghold, and after a string of polls suggested a long UK-wide lead it had enjoyed over Cameron’s Conservatives has shrunk. Derided by the press as socially awkward since he assumed the party’s leadership in 2010, Miliband, an Oxford-educated career politician with the demeanour of an academic, is seen by some in and around his party as an electoral liability rather than an asset. Sunday’s poll, by YouGov for The Sunday Times newspaper, showed that 73% of voters thought Miliband, 44, was doing badly, with only 18% saying he was doing a good job. That gave him an overall approval rating of -55. Last month, Miliband’s rating hit a 33-month low in a comparable YouGov poll, with 71% saying he was doing badly and 20% well. His latest approval rating means he has overtaken Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats, as the least popular of the three main party leaders. Labour’s overall support was 32%, the same poll said, just one point ahead of the Conservatives, its lowest level of support since 2010. Cameron, the 48-year-old leader of the Conservative party, remains the most popular of the party leaders, the poll showed, with 54% saying he was doing his job badly and 40% well. That gave him an approval rating of -14. Yvette Cooper, Labour’s spokeswoman for home affairs, said on Sunday she thought Miliband was doing a good job, but John Prescott, Labour’s former deputy prime minister, suggested there were problems with strategy.

There is a good chance the party that controls the Senate will not be known on Tuesday night. Senate races with multiple candidates in Louisiana and Georgia, where the winner must get more than 50% of the vote, could be forced into runoffs in December or January, respectively. If Republicans do take control of the Senate, Obama’s last two years in office would be complicated by the prospect of even more partisan gridlock, although it could force him to make more compromises with his political opponents. A Republican-led Senate would be likely to push ahead with approval of the Keystone XL (TRP.TO) crude oil pipeline, chip away at provisions in Obama’s signature healthcare law, and take steps toward a broad rewrite of tax laws. According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll in late October, just 38% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of his job as president, compared to 56% who disapprove. Meanwhile, just 24% think the country is headed in the right direction, and 61% believe it is on the wrong track. About 58% of Republicans are dead certain they will vote, compared to 44% of Democrats, the Ipsos poll shows. Politically radioactive Obama’s unpopularity has made him politically radioactive on the campaign trail. Democratic candidates have kept him at arm’s length in competitive states where Senate control will be determined. Instead, he has largely been restricted to Democratic fund-raising events, although in recent days he headlined events in friendly states such as Maine, Rhode Island and Michigan. On Sunday, he travels to Connecticut and Pennsylvania.