China growth calls ease as export outlook darkens

Reuters: China’s annual rate of export growth slowed in November versus October, vice commerce minister Chong Quan told reporters on Wednesday, confirming market expectations that deteriorating external conditions are dragging on the world’s No. 2 economy.

“Export growth in November was even slower than October,” Chong told reporters on the sidelines of a news conference releasing a government report on China’s long term trade development.

China is due to publish November trade data on Saturday, December 10, with economists expecting the numbers to reveal the weakest growth in two years, excluding an anomalous slide in February when the Lunar New Year holiday disrupted activity.

Headline growth in exports in October of 15.9 percent was its most sluggish in eight months and also the slowest since November 2009 with the volatile February data stripped out.

China’s export sector -- a key driver of economic growth -- is set to suffer more headwinds in the coming months, analysts say, as Europe’s debt crisis worsens and consumer spending in the United States remains weak.

That view was given further weight when influential think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), issued new growth and inflation forecasts for 2012.

CASS said it saw GDP growth of 8.9 percent next year, versus its call of 9.2 percent for 2011, and that it expected consumer prices to rise by 4.6 percent, down from the 5.5 percent it forecasts for this year but still above the 4 percent level the government regards as comfortable.

It also projected China’s fixed-asset investment growth slowing to an annual 22.8 percent in 2012, from an estimated 24.5 percent this year.

But the think tank -- one of China’s foremost institutions, staffed by a mix of influential economists and many former senior officials -- cautioned against the need for significant stimulus to fight the moderation in growth.

“The direction of marco-controls should not be shifted towards loosening from tightening to support growth. Economic growth will slow steadily and appropriately, it’s best to maintain an 8-9 percent growth rate,” CASS said in a “blue book” of economic forecasts.

China’s economy faces a tough 2012, squeezed by rising costs at home and fewer orders from abroad, with many economists expecting full year growth to come in below 9 percent -- that would be the slowest in nearly a decade.

Wang Shouwen, director of the commerce ministry’s foreign trade department, told the earlier news conference that Chinese exporters could find conditions severe.

“Next year, there won’t be fundamental improvement in Europe or the United States, and costs at home will stay as high as this year, so the foreign trade situation will be severe next year,” Wang said.

But Wang added that China may still manage to sell more products in 2012 than in 2011 “as long as the European financial crisis does not run out of control.”

Economists at UBS reckon a euro zone recession causing a fall in imports only half as deep as that experienced in 2008/09 would wipe around 1.7 percentage points off Chinese GDP in 2012.

Leaders from all 27 European Union countries have a summit meeting in Brussels this week and will vote on a Franco-German plan to change the EU treaty to impose mandatory penalties on euro zone states that exceed deficit targets, aiming to restore market trust and prevent the crisis spiraling out of control

Wang said China will work particularly hard to increase its imports from Europe and the United States in 2012 as a way to help the struggling rich economies.

China’s trade surplus is expected to be $161 billion in 2011, with exports rising 20.4 percent with imports soaring 24.7 percent, according to CASS.

In the official white paper, the Chinese government reiterated that it does not deliberately pursue policies designed to deliver a trade surplus and that China is moving towards balancing exports and imports.

Vice Minister Chong added that the government is not manipulating the exchange rate of the yuan.

“The Chinese government has never manipulated the exchange rate, and our exchange rate is a floating one based market changes and demands,” Chong said.

“As for the future, I believe they yuan could be stronger or weaker -- it will move like a wave,” he said.

China’s yuan has lost about half a percent of its value against the U.S. dollar, since strengthening to a record 6.3354 to the greenback on November 14. It is still about 3.5 percent stronger against the dollar so far this year.

The official dollar/yuan rate is set each day by China’s central bank with data issued through the Shanghai-based interbank market, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), on the market’s website, www.chinamoney.com.cn.

The dollar/yuan exchange rate may rise or fall 0.5 percent from the mid-point each day.