Stocks fall; Russia steady before central bank meeting

Saturday, 26 October 2019 00:06 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Reuters: Emerging-market stocks fell on Friday amid growth woes and geopolitical tensions, with the Russian rouble treading water before a central bank meeting.

Joining the wave of policy easing across the developing world, Russia’s central bank is expected to cut it key rate, currently 7%, by 50 basis points and signal that it intends to ease policy further.

Credit Suisse’s base case is for a 50-basis-point cut, said analyst Alexey Pogorelov, but if it’s just 25 bps, another 25-bp cut is likely in December.

The central bank has said it will also provide new economic forecasts along with the rate decision on Friday.

Sentiment was swayed by weak German PMIs and US capital goods orders, uncertainty regarding an election in Britain as the European Union considers a Brexit extension, and some noise on the US-China trade front.

MSCI’s index of emerging market shares fell 0.3%, although it remained near its highest in nearly three months. Stocks in Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and Russia lost 0.1% to 0.7%.

The developing world currencies index ended a six-day winning streak.

Both indices were still on course to gain for the week - stocks for their third straight week and currencies their fourth.

Nervousness grew before a summit next month where US President Donald Trump hopes to strike a partial trade deal with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, after US Vice President Mike Pence criticised China over its handling of Hong Kong unrest and treatment of its Muslim minority.

Turkey’s lira weakened for a second day after Thursday’s larger-than-expected 250 basis point interest rate cut and comments by President Tayyip Erdogan that inflation will fall once rates are cut further.

“Given the bank’s increasing confidence about ongoing disinflation, it utilised the room for policy manoeuvre and over-delivered again while maintaining its previous guidance ... that signals a more cautious policy stance,” wrote Muhammet Mercan, chief economist, Turkey at ING. “We think inflation will probably remain in single digits in October and reverse thereafter because of unsupportive base effects,” he said.

South Africa’s rand strengthened 0.2%, though markets are eying its medium-term budget speech and Moody’s credit rating review, both due next week.