Oil boost helps world stocks turn positive for 2018

TOKYO (Reuters): Asian stocks rose on Thursday, with energy shares leading the way as crude oil prices bolted higher after US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a nuclear deal with Iran.

Spreadbetters expected European stocks to open higher as well, with Britain’s FTSE adding 0.2%, Germany’s DAX rising 0.4% and France’s CAC gaining 0.3%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.5% and Shanghai was 0.2% higher.

Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $77.82 a barrel, the highest since November 2014 and building on gains of about 3% on Wednesday. US light crude futures were up 0.6% at $71.69.

Energy shares soared as crude oil prices reached 3-1/2-year highs, with investors betting the US withdrawal from a nuclear agreement with Iran would increase tensions in the Middle East and curtail oil supply.

Overnight, the Dow gained 0.75% and the S&P 500 climbed nearly 1%, with the S&P energy index rallying 2%.

Rising oil prices in turn pushed up US Treasury yields by fanning inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to a two-week high above the 3% threshold before pulling back to 2.982%.Shored up by higher yields, the dollar climbed to a 4-1/2-month high of 93.416 against a basket of six major currencies overnight. The dollar index was last at 92.956.

The New Zealand dollar retreated to a five-month low of $0.6915 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) wrongfooted hawks. It kept interest rates steady as expected, but said its next move might be a cut or a hike.

“The RBNZ surprised markets with a slight dovish shift,” said Imre Speizer, an economist at Westpac.

The euro crawled back to $1.1871 after slipping overnight to $1.1823, its lowest since late December. The dollar was steady at 109.690 yen after brushing an eight-day peak of 109.930.

Malaysian vote 

upset reverberates

Investors in emerging markets, already facing financial uncertainty in countries such as Argentina and Turkey, received another jolt after a stunning election upset in Malaysia.

Moody’s ratings agency said the country was now in uncharted territory after an alliance of opposition parties led by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad shocked the ruling coalition.

Over the past day the Malaysian ringgit slid nearly 3% in the one-month non-deliverable forward market and the cost to insure against the country’s debt default has risen.

“The surprise win by Mahathir’s coalition party is likely to see an increase in policy uncertainty at least in the short term with market volatility likely to be higher,” said Sian Fenner, lead Asian economist at Oxford Economics.

Special public holidays were declared for Thursday and Friday following the elections. But, highlighting investor worries, the US-traded iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF plunged 6% overnight to a one-year low.

“Malaysian markets are expected to eventually regain some calm as Mahathir’s win may not spell a dramatic policy departure from those under (incumbent prime minister) Najib,” said Kota Hirayama, senior emerging markets economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.

“Malaysia still enjoys a current account surplus and this could help cushion any fiscal spending policies Mahathir could pursue. That said, the opposition parties that won is a loose coalition and it remains to be seen if they can retain a united front.”