Dengue in 2018 and strategic plan for health sector

By Dr. Nalin Abeysekera

I just received a news that one female student has died in University of Moratuwa due to dengue. Subsequently the university was closed for two weeks. Getting admission to University of Moratuwa is a dream and I feel really sorry for the parents of that student. You are expecting your daughter to become an engineer and come back to your village with celebrations. But all your dreams are shattered with this deadly disease (I do not think this as karma anyway). 

We can witness that dengue fever is fast spreading this year reaching an epidemic level. According to latest statistics of the Epidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health, 71,298 suspected dengue cases have been reported during the last six months of the year 2017. The number of dengue patients in Sri Lanka has shockingly increased by 85% in 2016 and the trend keeps continuing in 2017. The following table depicts the pathetic scenario with comparisons for years 2015, 2016 and 2017.

It is clear that we are in real danger and need to understand the trend and patterns of this deadly epidemic. Whatever natural disasters or any other problem comes there should be proper reading and forecasting for any country. This is the very basic we need to identify. Even in manpower planning in the health sector it discussed about the need for proper planning which is fundamental. In this context Sri Lanka should always note ‘best practices’ in other countries. 

The article titled as ‘Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: A tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example’ (which published by Greuningen, Batenburg and Van der Velden in 2012 for ‘Human Resources for Health’) is one of the classic examples of how you even plan your human resource for the next 10 years on the health sector. The proposed simulation model with scenario planning always takes many factors into consideration. Refer below:

“Epidemiological developments – This element represents the changes that take place in the prevalence and incidence of diseases, not related to age and gender, which will continue to increase in the case of some diseases and decrease in others. Lifestyle factors, for instance, influence the incidence of certain diseases. For example, if the percentage of smokers continues to decrease, the number of patients with lung cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic bronchitis and emphysema is expected to decline. On the other hand, the increasing number of obese people will lead to a rise in the incidence of breast cancer, diabetes mellitus and arthritis. Health statistics published yearly by Statistics Netherlands and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment are used as a source for this element. The actual value of this element is defined as a yearly change rate in the demand for a health profession, due to these epidemiological developments, between the baseline year and the target year. This percentage is estimated by experts based on the sources mentioned above, including their own expectations.”

Source – ‘Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: A tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example’, Human Resources for Health, 2012, Volume 10, Number 1, Page 1,Malou Van Greuningen, Ronald S Batenburg, Lud FJ Van der Velden

Above is one of the classic examples of importance of planning in health sector. We need to ask a serious question on ourselves on preparation for the country for year 2018 and so on. This is vital unless we will just publish numbers and do some mathematical calculations forever. There should be proper strategic plan for the health sector and we need to benchmark better nations. This dengue outbreak is one alarming signal which has issued for this country for better forecasting and planning. I always believe this country is full of experts in trend analysis and forecasting. But getting their help for the public sector is the challenge. This is all about collaborations and partnerships which is fundamental for the development of any country.

(The writer is a Senior Lecturer and Chartered Marketer, Department of Management Studies, Open University of Sri Lanka.)