PUCSL calls for public views on CEB’s Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan

The Public Utilities Commission (PUCSL), is urging the public to comment on the Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan (LCLTGEP) 2018-2037, prepared by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB).

The LCLTGEP has been compiled based on the results of the latest electricity expansion plan studies conducted by the CEB for the planning period of 2018-2037 and aims to cater to forecast growth in demand by identifying the cheapest plant addition sequence based on the most sustainable technology to avoid electricity shortfalls in the country. The plan has been submitted to the PUCSL for approval.  “The Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan is one of the most important plans in a nation as it plans the electricity generation for the country for the next 20 years to ensure energy security as the least cost plant mix for each year is identified by analysing and evaluating various technology options. 

It serves as a guideline to facilitate decision-makers in making decisions in line with national policy objectives by exploring and evaluating various generation technology options in different situations,” said Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka Director General Damitha Kumarasinghe. 

“By opening the path to the public, we hope to involve all the related and interested parties in the decision-making process through opinions, views, alternative proposals and suggestions on the LCLTGEP 2018-2037 and therefore we hope to increase the transparency of the approval process and increase public participation in the decision-making process of Sri Lanka’s most important energy generation plan.”

The Sri Lankan power system had a total installed capacity of approximately 4,018 MW by the end of 2016 with a total dispatchable capacity of 3,538 MW, including non-dispatchable plants of capacity 516 MW owned by private sector developers. 

The majority of dispatchable capacity is owned by the CEB (i.e. about 82% of the total dispatchable capacity), which includes 1,379.25 MW of hydro and 1,510.7 MW of thermal generation capacity. Balance dispatchable capacity, which is comprised totally of thermal plants, is owned by Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

Sri Lanka recorded 2,453 MW of maximum demand in 2016 and generated a total of 14,250 GWh of electricity in the same year. 

The generation demand is expected to grow 5.9% per annum from 2018-2022 while peak demand is expected to grow at 5.1% per annum, the data shows. The same is expected to grow 4.9% per annum from 2018-2037 with the peak demand expected to cross 4.5%. 

According to the expected growth, it is identified that the grid should have an installed capacity of 4,269 MW at the beginning of 2018 and 10,783 MW by the end of 2037, LCLTGEP data shows. The proposed energy mix for the next 20 years consists major hydro, coal, pumped storage hydro, combined cycle, oil and gas turbine plants. 

According to the plan, the least cost has been a major concern while environmentally friendliness has been an added value in identifying the technology options for the generation mix for the next 20 years. 

The state utility plans to add 15 MW of mini hydropower, 160 MW of solar power, 5 MW of biomass and 320 MW of oil-based power to the national grid in 2018. 

From 2018-2037 Sri Lanka plans to add 842 MW of Major Hydro, 215 MW of Mini Hydro, 1,389 MW of Solar, 1,205 MW of Wind, 85 MW of Bio Mass, 425 MW of Oil-Based Power, 1500MW of Natural Gas and 2,700 MW of Coal Power to the electricity generation system. In total the Indian Ocean Island plans on 8,361 MW of new additions (including the committed power plants) to the national grid over a period of 20 years from 2018. 

The total investment required for implementing the 2018-2037 plan over the next 20 years is approximately $ 14.568 billion (Rs. 2,168.93 billion) without considering the projects for which funds have already been committed. The committed power plants are shown below.

Committed power plants        

Power Plant    Capacity (MW)    Year of Operation

Thermal

Furnace Oil based Thermal Power Plant    100

70    2017/2018

Kelanitissa Gas Turbines    3x35    2 Units by 2019

1 Unit by 2020

LNG operated Combined Cycle Power Plant    300    Open Cycle – 2019

(Open Cycle operation with Diesel as initial fuel) 

Combined Cycle – 2020

Hydro

Uma Oya HPP    122    2019

Broadlands HPP    35    2020

Moragolla HPP    30.2    2022

Wind

Mannar Wind Power Plant    100    2020

The LCLTGEP says it is imperative that the power plants are implemented as scheduled in Base Case 2018-2037.

According to the plan, a total of 2,938 MW Other Renewable Energy (ORE) capacity will be developed during the planning horizon in order to ensure environmental conservation commitment. This may avoid the construction of 900 MW coal power plants during the planning horizon which shall in turn reduce CO2 emissions by 17%.

The additional present value cost of $ 153 million is absorbed by the electricity sector in order to mitigate climate change impact in accordance with Government policies.

The plan is now available at www.pucsl.gov.lk for reference. A printed copy of this report is also available at the information centre of the commission. Interested parties can submit their written comments or submissions to the commission by post, fax or e-mail and even comments can be made online at www.pucsl.gov.lk on or before 6 June 2017. 

Further, the PUCSL will also hold an oral submission on 15 June 2017 and the venue and date of the meeting will be communicated to the parties at an early date. The ways to respond to consultation are to write to Public Consultation on Generation Plan, Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka, Level 06, BoC Merchant Tower, 28, St. Michael’s Road, Colombo 3. You can also respond online by accessing the PUCSL website or emailing [email protected]. Fax (011) 2392641.