Tuesday, 1 April 2014 01:00
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An election is a game of numbers. Despite sweeping the Southern and Western Provincial Council polls in what was very much an expected result, the ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) nonetheless showed a dent in its still-formidable armour. The party polled about 200,000 votes less than it did during the previous elections in 2009 and the drop in popularity can be plausibly traced to several reasons.
Word on the street is that cost of living has become too much of a burden. Regardless of the significant infrastructure improvement around the country, it is telling that a region such as President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s electorate that has since 2008 gained a brand spanking new highway, port, airport, investment zones, convention centre and a railway line costing nearly US$ 2 billion dollars would see a 50,000 drop in votes. The Government has often been accused of ignoring the poor man by taxing essential goods exorbitantly and lessening the responsibility on the wealthy as well as cutting back of Budget allocations for education, healthcare and housing for the poor. If so growing inequality could have made the difference.
Corruption has also corroded the trust of the people. One can safely draw from the result that the options provided by the Opposition, minor as they may seem, provide an important balance of power that has been seen steadily eroding within Sri Lanka’s democracy. As parliamentary, media and judicial freedoms become contracted, the people have opted to give space for a somewhat more vibrant JVP and Democratic Party headed by Sarath Fonseka. The latter, despite having his civic rights removed by the Government, publicly voted incurring no protest. With each election Fonseka is gaining ground, notwithstanding internal rumblings and despite having no governance experience, it seems the voters are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Another possibility is that increasing deterioration in law and order is also prompting the public to favour a person who has a reputation for being “tough” on moral matters. Moreover Fonseka, as analysts had previously pointed out when he was the common presidential candidate, has the capacity to legitimately tap into the glamour of the war victory over the LTTE.
Ahead of the vote, Rajapaksa valiantly attempted to fix the elections as part of the UNHRC defence, urging voters for a sweeping mandate to show up the international community. Yet, despite the UNHRC passing a resolution including a possible international inquiry into Sri Lanka’s human rights record and alleged war crimes a day ahead of the elections, it is questionable whether this was an overriding impetus for voters.
Rather, what is evident is that the sparkle of winning the war that had rooted the Government in the face of many previous uncertainties is now definitely waning. This was even tacitly admitted by SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena who downplayed the reduction in votes by pointing out that the “political environment” is dramatically different from 2009. He noted that the 2009 vote was a show of support for winning the war. If that is the case, then the people clearly feel since then the achievements of the ruling party have failed to live up to that benchmark.
The UNP managed to save face by winning key seats in Colombo but still polled 50% less votes than the UPFA, showing the long road ahead. It now faces a race with the JVP and Democratic Party to remain the main Opposition party and meet the expectations of the voters.
