Maritime storms

The Indian Ocean is rapidly emerging as a key focus of international politics. Its strategic energy reserves and natural resources, the growing importance of its ports and shipping lanes, and the rise of India, Indonesia, South Africa, and other littoral nations as increasingly significant regional powers and global players are transforming the Indian Ocean into a major crossroads for multiple security, maritime policy, and governance issues.

Rising flows of trade, investment, people, and ideas are linking the 30 Indian Ocean countries to each other and to the rest of the world ever more closely. At the same time, enduring problems – ranging from piracy on the high seas to territorial disputes in the regional seas and mounting environmental pressures on coastal and marine resources – pose persistent challenges for maritime policymakers around the Indian Ocean region.

With a view to addressing these challenges, Sri Lanka’s Navy is hosting the third Galle Dialogue with the participation of 28 other nations. During the conference it was made clear that the Indian Ocean faces a number of threats. Its sheer scale renders it vulnerable to many issues including piracy, terrorism, human smuggling, drug trafficking, unregulated fishing, and illegal waste disposal. These are all serious threats to the security, stability, and sustainability of the Indian Ocean region.

Sri Lankans in particular regularly face threats from piracy, human smuggling, and illegal fishing. Even though the threat on security is largely nullified, there is increasing need to address the socioeconomic issues that give rise to problems like people smuggling. A comprehensive response would not happen with engagement from regional nations, particularly India and Australia. Even though such exchanges have taken place, the need to depoliticise them and streamline the bilateral exchanges has also been emphasised, especially in connection to Sri Lanka’s powerful neighbour.

Strengthening resettlement of Sri Lankan refugees is also a maritime matter as most displaced people prefer to return by sea as they can bring back most of their possessions. Despite the war being over for nearly four years, the number of Indian refugees still remains significant and more effort needs to be made to encourage their return.

Allies are crucial for security. Yet, as Asia emerges as the driver of global power, there is increasing tension between the US and China on protecting their strategic interests in the Indian Ocean. While countries such as India have clearly stepped up engagement with the US, others have also increased their engagement with China, leading to mistrust in the region. Smaller countries such as Sri Lanka are liable to get caught up in these crosscurrents as economic and political demands push them towards one power or the other.

Balancing China vs. America influences in maritime policies will become increasingly challenging as both parties display more belligerent attitudes. Despite Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa in his keynote address at the Galle Dialogue insisting that Sino-Sri Lanka relations are purely based on commercial interests and the ports financed by China are not part of the “chain of pearls” strategy, the island’s continued financial dependence will make most observers take his comments with a pinch of sea salt.

Protecting Sri Lanka’s hallowed non-aligned foreign policy in this environment could be a tough point for leaders to puzzle out. However, it is clear that Sri Lanka will have to strike a division between strategic interests and economic needs before the storm hits.