Game changer?

Friday, 10 July 2015 00:00 -     - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

The die has been cast. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa has signed nominations to contest from Kurunegala, a region that can be seen as the heartland of Rajapaksa’s vote base and puts him in a strong position to lobby for the prime minister’s post.

The move has come after weeks of speculation and amidst strong disapproval from many factions that gathered to oust Rajapaksa from power in January. Initially the indication was Rajapaksa would only be allowed to contest from Hambantota where a smaller vote base would have limited his ability to pitch himself as a prime ministerial contender but the change in location may well prove to be a game-changer.

As the third largest electorate, Kurunegala provides the perfect base from which the former president can grab an estimated 400,000 or more preferential votes that would put him in a strong position to claim credit for any electoral gains made by the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). It could also give him a larger number of seats to form a separate wing of sorts in Parliament and further cement his power within UPFA. So far the stars seem to be smiling over Rajapaksa with rumours that he was even allowed to sign nominations secretly in order to allow for the use of an auspicious time.

The same cannot be said for the Head of State. President Maithripala Sirisena has been under increasing pressure from disillusioned supporters who have even threatened to defect to the United National Party (UNP) if Rajapaksa is given a leg up in his battle to return to power. Many lay the blame on Sirisena for being strong-armed into giving Rajapaksa nominations and paving the way for a return.

Sirisena, who is the first few months of his presidency was careful to cultivate an image of statesman has been criticised for “betraying” his mandate and allowing Rajapaksa to position himself to the best advantage of those that have been detractors of reforms led by Sirisena. His tenuous stance was further substantiated when Sirisena reportedly admitted to a group of civil society supporters of being unable to withstand the overwhelming popularity of Rajapaksa within the SLFP and UPFA.

Sirisena’s supporters take a more positive view pointing out that he has maintained himself as a moderate politician who does not allow his emotions to rule his decisions. Parliamentary elections should be a democratic process governed by institutions and legal conventions. Sirisena by allowing his predecessor to contest has ensuring that this system continues without interference. Making the nomination process personal would have put Sirisena at the same level as Rajapaksa, they argue, who tinkered with the system to consolidate his power.

But it is precisely this that many moderate voters fear. They worry the result of a Rajapaksa return will be a hung parliament, which would not only stymie development but also end any hope of pushing forward reconciliation in a deeply-polarised House. Many have little faith in Rajapaksa playing by the rules and have much past experience to back their trepidation. In the midst of this chaos the UNP will be hoping a Rajapaksa presence will galvanise undecided voters towards them, as could well be the case.

The last card in the pack could well be the SLFP nomination list, which is to be released by President Sirisena soon. It could well be the final variable political analysts are waiting for as the game get kicked up a notch to campaigning.

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