Wednesday, 20 August 2014 00:53
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Climate change challenges Sri Lanka along with the rest of the world and successive droughts are merely an indication of how seriously policies need to be adjusted to meet future environmental demands. A report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) this week outlines problems that will be faced regionally.
South Asia—with so much of its population destitute and dependent on the land for their livelihoods—stands to suffer “severe” economic and physical consequences from climate change, says the report. If current trends in worldwide carbon-dioxide emissions continue unabated, climate change could depress the combined annual Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka by 1.8% each year by 2050, economists estimate in the ADB report. After that, the yearly cost to the region is expected to increase, reaching a “prohibitively high” 8.8% of GDP by 2100.
Predictably, agriculture will be a big source of economic vulnerability. Climate change threatens to reduce crop yields and increase the likelihood of crop failures. The report also tabulate the costs resulting from disrupted supplies of hydroelectric and thermal power, loss of land in coastal communities—and, in Bangladesh, damage to the mangrove forests on which the country’s fishing industry depends.
Increased temperatures would affect the magnitude and distribution of rainfall, the report says. Interestingly Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka would see more rain. India would see less, with northern and northwestern states suffering the most. Demand for water in the country is expected to fall short of supply by 300 billion cubic meters by the 2030s and 400 billion cubic meters by the 2050s.
The economists offer suggestions for improving the region’s “adaptive capacity,” or ability to adjust economically and socially to changes in the ecosystem. Their estimated yearly price tag for diversifying agriculture, erecting flood- and erosion-resistant infrastructure, and making other climate-proofing investments: 0.86% of GDP by 2050.
The projected costs of inaction are also high. Ultimately, it isn’t geography or ecology alone that makes so many people in South Asia so vulnerable to serious climate-induced calamity. Malnourishment, low levels of education, poor infrastructure, weak local government and a lack of productive activities outside of farming make even small fluctuations in climate potentially disastrous to an area’s economy.
Sri Lanka’s ongoing drought, despite a short respite at the moment, is a prime example of this. A drought in 2012 followed by reduced rainfall in 2013 has undermined water retention in the region severely not only impacting the Maha season but also having the potential to reduce the Yala harvest, plunging the population of an entire region into economic uncertainty.
The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned the lack of precipitation has damaged 83,746 hectares of paddy lands, or 13% of planted area. The production loss of paddy is estimated at 280,000 MT, or 15% of forecasted production. One of the key policies of the ‘Mahinda Chinthana’ policy framework was the major revival of irrigation schemes that would have been the bedrock of competent water management systems. However, the Government’s relief programs are hobbled by its short-term nature, limited resources and bureaucratic apathy. Whether its droughts or floods that are in Sri Lanka’s future, the need for better policies is a certainty.
