Ending the impasse

Wednesday, 10 June 2015 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

AN impasse has come to an end, at least partially. Cabinet has given its nod for the 20th Amendment in accordance with proposals submitted by the United National Party (UNP), but its appearance in Parliament remains a massive challenge for the Government.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe proposed the 20th Amendment to the Constitution to introduce provisions for 125 members of a 225-member Legislature to be elected through the First-Past-the-Post (FPP) or majoritarian system, with 75 members elected based on Proportional Representation (PR). The remaining 25 MPs will enter Parliament through the National List. The shrinking of the National List could also stymie female representation in the new Parliament with reforms failing to give space for a quota system for women candidates.

Cabinet had approved the Prime Minister’s recommendations during last night’s special session, according to reports. The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) had also put forward proposals to shape the 20th Amendment, but the Cabinet decided to support the Prime Minister’s recommendations instead. Yet this does not mean a smooth path ahead for the amendment.

It now remains to be seen whether the Cabinet-approved proposals will find favour with the majority UPFA Parliament, which made the immediate passage of the 20th Amendment its condition for supporting the 19th Amendment, which curbed presidential powers and restored independent commissions to oversee key state institutions.

The Opposition, which still holds a large majority in the House, managed to obtain a commitment from President Maithripala Sirisena that the current Parliament would not be dissolved until the electoral reforms were passed. The Legal Draftsman will cobble together the new proposals and present them to President Sirisena on Friday, according to reports. It will then be decided whether the current set of proposals be gazetted before being presented in the House. Since the new administration has decided against presenting Emergency bills to Parliament, the 20th Amendment will then have to work its way up the Order Book before making its debut in Parliament.

Once it makes its way to the floor of Parliament, passionate debate is expected on its merits and negative points. As with the 19th Amendment the electoral reforms could also see a last minute flurry of changes and closed-door deal making as the Government tries to cajole and convince Opposition and minority parties of the new legislation’s virtues. Such an environment would be ripe for the bombastic rhetoric of the pro-Rajapaksa wing, which similar to the 19th Amendment, could use this as a stage to cause disruption.

For the UNP, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Once the 20th Amendment is passed, President Sirisena is free to call for elections and it is likely to be under an “as soon as possible” tag. The UNP is raring to go and senses it has more than a good chance to get a majority in Parliament. Even though Wickremesinghe insists the next Parliament will be a national government, having a simple majority to bank on will make life easier for a senior politician who is constantly facing attacks on his legitimacy as prime minister. A general election, moreover one that could well be held under the existing PR system, would be the best way to garner a direct mandate.