Election evaluation

Elections are always a measuring tape for political parties, but there is more in it for the voters. It is a chance for them to not only evaluate their representatives, but change their path and even give them a little slap on the wrist if they are not happy with performance.

Everyone knew that it would be another romp home for the ruling party. The only place that there could have been a hiccup was in Colombo and the attention proved well worth it. The UNP managed to hang on to Colombo in an impressive win, but what does this bode for the party as well as the CMC’s relationship with the central government?

UNP reformists have already expressed their intention to proceed with ousting current Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, who despite retaining the CMC, lost several other strongholds in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Dehiwala-Mt. Lavinia. It is clear that Wickremesinghe is still feeling the heat, by his behaviour at the press conference convened to announce the new Mayor – refusing to take questions and an outburst are signs that all is still not well within the party ranks. Reformists insist that it is not Wickremesinghe but diehard party loyalists who won the UNP the CMC. Splits within the party will continue to harm its chances in future elections.

The other aspect is whether the CMC will come under pressure from the central government. Speculation is rife over whether the CMC will be converted into an authority or if the Government will continue with its development programmes. Even though new Mayor M. Muzammil has pledged to work in solidarity with opposition members and the central government, it is likely that there will be tension between parties over implementation of different policies.

Elsewhere the latest win gives UPFA control over 80 per cent of the local councils that went to the polls during 2011. The party won 205 LG bodies out of 234 at the elections in March and later in polls held in July it won 45 out of 65 LG bodies. The UPFA overall secured 271 councils out of 322 that went to the polls in 2011. In comparison the main opposition UNP could only win 10 local councils in all three stages. This shows that the turnaround promised by Wickremesinghe is still a long way away and doubtful of coming easily.

Also during the three stages of local council elections held in 2011, the ITAK secured 30 LG bodies while the Government ally SLMC won five and the National Congress and TULF won two each. Clearly the presence of minority wins in the north will give local government administration an interesting twist. Outside of the north, the rest of the country is unlikely to see a significant impact from these results.

Another constant in all the rounds of local government elections was of course the violence and violation of election laws. It hit a new peak with the killing of several people, including former Parliamentarian and Presidential Advisor Baratha Lakshman Premachandra. Even though Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa has stated that Army personnel would keep a tab on security personnel assigned to politicians, it will not end the impunity within which our politicians operate, nor will it prevent them from hiring their own armed gangs and overstepping the boundaries of law.

A more pragmatic solution would be to focus on the big picture and stamp out thug politics in all Government ranks, starting possibly with Minister Mervyn Silva, and then moving on to broader issues of accountability and justice.