Becoming the change

Friday, 5 June 2015 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

CLIMATE change challenges Sri Lanka along with the rest of the world and World Environment Day is a moment to reflect how seriously policies need to be adjusted to meet future environmental demands.

A report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) last year outlined problems that will be faced regionally. South Asia — with so much of its population destitute and dependent on the land for their livelihoods — stands to suffer “severe” economic and physical consequences from climate change, says the report. If current trends in worldwide carbon-dioxide emissions continue unabated, climate change could depress the combined annual Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka by 1.8% each year by 2050, economists estimate in the ADB report.

After that, the yearly cost to the region is expected to increase, reaching a “prohibitively high” 8.8% of GDP by 2100. Predictably, agriculture will be a big source of economic vulnerability. Climate change threatens to reduce crop yields and increase the likelihood of crop failures. The report also tabulate the costs resulting from disrupted supplies of hydroelectric and thermal power, loss of land in coastal communities — and, in Bangladesh, damage to the mangrove forests on which the country’s fishing industry depends.

Increased temperatures would affect the magnitude and distribution of rainfall, the report says. Interestingly Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka would see more rain. India would see less, with northern and north-western states suffering the most. This is already seen in the crippling heat wave that swept over India killing over 2000 people. Demand for water in the country is expected to fall short of supply by 300 billion cubic meters by the 2030s and 400 billion cubic meters by the 2050s.

The economists offer suggestions for improving the region’s “adaptive capacity,” or ability to adjust economically and socially to changes in the ecosystem. Their estimated yearly price tag for diversifying agriculture, erecting flood- and erosion-resistant infrastructure, and making other climate-proofing investments: 0.86% of GDP by 2050.

The projected costs of inaction are also high. Ultimately, it isn’t geography or ecology alone that makes so many people in South Asia so vulnerable to serious climate-induced calamity. Malnourishment, low levels of education, poor infrastructure, weak local government and a lack of productive activities outside of farming make even small fluctuations in climate potentially disastrous to an area’s economy.

Sri Lanka’s recurring cycle of droughts and floods, is a prime example of this. The rising population’s demand for infrastructure and awakening of local economies has resulted in an increase in deforestation. However, it is important to manage forests in a sustainable manner, allowing sufficient consumption while ensuring conservation for the future generation. The total forest cover of Sri Lanka has declined gradually from 31.23% in 1992 to 28.74% in 2010.

Given that Sri Lanka as a whole struggles with simple practices like recycling, reducing waste and increasing awareness the country’s attention to protecting the environment needs to be taken up several notches. But the danger is that time is running out.