Friday, 23 May 2014 00:00
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WHEN a president travels, so too does foreign policy. President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s visit to China generated little speculation at the start of the week, but the speech delivered to the somewhat obscure Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building measures in Asia (CICA) where he supported China’s call for a new Asian security structure group that excludes the US has grabbed global attention.
CICA, whose 24 member nations also include Iran, Korea, Thailand and Turkey, should become a “security dialogue and cooperation platform” and should “establish a defence consultation mechanism,” China President Xi told the gathering. He noted it should create a “security response centre” for major emergencies.
It is even more interesting in the context of Sri Lanka-India relations as Rajapaksa is expected to hop across to New Delhi to attend the oath taking ceremony of new Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday. Modi’s ascension has been viewed through many lenses but Colombo will be hoping for stronger ties and a more moderate stance on the Tamil issue.
Understandably, the Government, increasingly heckled and penned in by the US on its lacklustre human rights record, would welcome an alternative power structure that would counter the might of America and Europe. Yet China itself may not be ready for a deep cooling of relations with the US given that it and the European Union remain the largest markets for China’s voluminous exports.
India, on its part, has not made its stance on the new proposal clear and it is obvious that if China is to succeed in an Asian security structure, it would need other powerful Asian countries such as India and Japan on its side. Spiralling tensions on the South China Sea as well as traditional insecurities could hamper such support.
Moreover Modi is seen by analysts to be a conciliatory force, moving India onto the global stage and improving engagement with the US. He is also expected to overlook the dark spot of a denied visa by the US in 2005 over the Gujarat riots and there is every indication his overtures will be welcomed by America after President Barrack Obama personally called and congratulated him on his landslide victory.
The possible role of Russia would also be a key part in forming the proposed Asian security structure. The notion of an Asian security structure is not a new one. It was first mooted by the former Soviet Union in the 1970s. It is however quite natural that China should refloat the idea. Two reasons being China’s own weight in the international system, especially in the Asian region and secondly in response to the US pivot to Asia. China sees an attempt to encircle it. It is therefore quite natural China should strive to create a structure that excludes the US.
The chill in US-Russia relations over Crimea would be crucial. Russia has always seen itself as a Eurasian power. The Chinese concept can become more than a mere slogan if the Russians buy in. Then a powerful counterweight to US and Europe might in fact become a reality.
Yet one could argue there are simply too many countries with too many overlapping concerns to cleanly divide and portion power out to. Yet the proposal remains an intriguing one, adding a new dimension to Sri Lanka’s balancing act regarding the US, India and China.
