The Executive and elections

Monday, 25 February 2019 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

The fate of the Executive Presidency is floating to the surface of political discourse once again as Sri Lanka inches towards elections this year. President Maithripala Sirisena met with Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa on Friday to discuss the fate of the Executive Presidency and how that might shape the political landscape of Sri Lanka will be crucial in the coming months.

According to details of the meeting in the public domain, Sirisena and Rajapaksa had discussed the feasibility of abolishing the Executive Presidency, but the possibility is fraught with major difficulties. The abolishment of the Executive Presidency would possibly require a two-thirds majority in Parliament and possibly a referendum, as was informed to Parliament by the Supreme Court during the effort to pass the 19th Amendment.

At the time, the Supreme Court stated that certain powers of the Executive could not be removed with just an Amendment to the Constitution and would need a referendum. In 2015, the newly minted coalition Government decided to leave out the contentious parts rather than venture into a referendum. If the Executive Presidency is to be abolished, it could require a referendum as well as two-thirds majority in Parliament. With only about 10 months of this presidential term left before elections, moving forward such a serious change would be extremely difficult.

Sirisena and Rajapaksa would essentially have to gather the entire Government behind the effort and focus only on the abolishment, which would be challenging given they would have to work closely with the United National Party (UNP). Even if they were to convince the UNP to back them, it is unlikely the UNP would be too enthusiastic of the abolishment as it would open the door to Rajapaksa being able to contest again as Prime Minister. If Rajapaksa is allowed to enter the fray again, it would be disadvantageous to the UNP, who will be facing a General Election instead of the Presidential Election they are preparing for now.

The abolishment of the Executive Presidency would also be a political risk for Sirisena as he could see his wishes to contest a second term undermined by the re-entry of Rajapaksa. The latter could be viewed as a more attractive candidate and since the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has already lost a significant number of key Parliamentarians to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the SLFP may find itself fighting for survival in a General Election. A three-way battle would then emerge that would split the entire vote base on a level that has not been seen in decades.

Such a cataclysmic shift in the political landscape would also not be positive for the economy, which is already struggling with moderate growth. The more political turmoil, the less investors would be interested in investing. The private sector is also likely to ride out the storm rather than risk having their business plans detailed by inconsistent policies, which has always been a consistent problem over the last four years.

With so much at stake, everyone will be watching the moves of President Sirisena and Opposition Leader Rajapaksa with hawk-eye intensity, not just on their decisions regarding the Executive Presidency but also on how their alliance will move forward. The cards are slowly being put on the table.