Political pulse

In recent years May Day rallies in Sri Lanka have become forums to detect the political pulse of key political figures and the possible policy direction of the country. The May Day speeches that were rolled out during last Sunday and Monday have proved to be particularly insightful as Sri Lankans attempt to understand how they will head into a new decade. 

The overwhelming rhetoric of the May Day rallies, whether they were from President Maithripala Sirisena, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe or former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, was on electoral conquest. This is hardly surprising as three elections, two of them crucial, will be held in 2019 and 2020. 

Now that Local Government elections have been completed, next in the pipeline will be Provincial Council elections. The Government has given little indication it would move to hold Provincial Council elections this year, even though the Elections Commission has called for the delimitation report to be approved by Parliament, paving the way for polls to be called. 

It is more likely that the elections will be pushed to 2019 as the Government seems keen to implement promised reforms and roll out public-pleasing policies, but that comes with its own set of challenges because then the Government will have to face two back-to-back elections in the same year. After term limits were reduced from six to five years, it is likely that presidential elections will have to be called in late 2019 for the election to be held in early January 2020. 

Provincial Council elections by themselves are not considered to be significant. But elections run on momentum and just as the Local Government elections spurred on Cabinet reshuffles and crossovers, the results of a Provincial Council poll would have national implications. Obviously, readers would also remember how provincial council elections motivated former President Rajapaksa to hold presidential elections early. The pulse of the provincial elections in that instance proved to be crucial momentum for the subsequent presidential election. Next year could see a similar domino effect with provincial polls impacting the presidential elections.

A secondary knock on effect may be seen from the presidential election to the parliamentary one. Sri Lankans voters are a practical bunch and they understand that for government to work effectively the Executive and the Legislature must function together. This is why, traditionally, the person who wins the presidential election sees their party prevail at the parliament election. Therefore, all three key players have everything to work for in the next two years. 

Interestingly, both President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe delivered addresses that were targeted at reform and rejuvenation. Both pointed out that their respective parties had suffered worse defeats in the past and not to be disheartened by the setback of the Local Government elections. Wickremesinghe emphasised that the UNP still had 18 months in power to fast-track implementation of reforms, both in the party and government, to face the upcoming elections with greater confidence. A similar message of reform, but more poised on anti-corruption, was delivered by Sirisena. 

The danger of course is that economic reforms will be put on the backburner in favour of populist policies. But where political survival is the uppermost concern, smart policymakers could find that reform and popularity can be mutually inclusive.