Political developments

Presidential Elections are on the horizon and the political landscape will shift in interesting and unforeseen ways as they edge closer. One indication of these changes is the marginally moderating stance of Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa seen in the latest statement released by him this week, where he backed constitutional reforms and went so far as to say he would present his proposals at a future Election to get a “direct mandate” from the people. 

Both Rajapaksa and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), which he is the de facto leader of, has been steadfastly and at times rabidly against constitutional reforms in any size or form. Opposition to constitutional reform has been a consistent political platform for the SLPP with the issue being a key pillar of their election campaigns and rallies since the formation of the Constitutional Assembly. 

Efforts to draft a new Constitution has been repeatedly rejected by them and many of Rajapaksa’s loyalists have been at the forefront of whipping up nationalist sentiments, which have sometimes spilled over into communal tensions. They have also argued that the formation of a new Constitution was not necessary to achieve reconciliation and the entire effort was aimed at dividing the country. The SLPP and the Rajapaksas have modelled themselves as largely a Sinhala Buddhist party that believes in giving priority to the needs and aspirations of the Sinhala Buddhists of this country.  

After such purposeful and prolonged campaigning, Rajapaksa’s statement on Wednesday that he believed constitutional reforms are necessary and that he would present proposals before the next election is significant. Understandably, Rajapaksa is still against the constitutional changes as proposed by the Government, but there is more nuance to his stance than there was previously. Rajapaksa contends constitutional changes are needed and puts forward the 19th Amendment as an example of how constitutional changes have made governance more complicated. Given that the 19th Amendment played a crucial role in ending Rajapaksa’s bid to become Prime Minister late last year, it is understandable that he feels it should be scrapped.  

Political analysts are also not surprised by Rajapaksa saying he is not opposed to the abolishment of the Executive Presidency. Having already completed his two terms, it would be in Rajapaksa’s interest to abolish the Executive Presidency and establish an alternative role to head the Government. If it is an executive Prime Ministerial position then he could make a fresh bid to return to power without the hindrances that currently lie in his way. 

What is equally clear is that Rajapaksa has realised what political observers have known for years. In a close election, the vote of minorities matter, and Rajapaksa will have to evolve a strategy that offers at least some middle ground before it is too late. In 2005 and 2015, the minority vote played a crucial role in deciding the victor, and the 2020 edition is shaping up to be more of the same. Therefore, having a political ideology and persona that closely identifies only with one community, even if it is the largest community in the country, could pose challenges in a closely contested Presidential Election. 

It is also doubly interesting that Rajapaksa is considering a more moderate stance at a time when speculation is rife that President Maithripala Sirisena is considering issuing a presidential pardon for controversial firebrand monk Galaboda Aththe Gnanasara Thero. The implications of these political decisions will be played out over the next few months as the different players vie for their chunk of public appeal.