Political crosswinds

There is much to be unpacked from President Maithripala Sirisena’s Independence Day address, largely because of the political statements that were made. During what is arguably the most important annual address to the nation, the President discharged broadside remarks at both the United National Party (UNP), and surprisingly, at the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). 

The criticism of UPFA parliamentarians throwing chili at Police inside the well of Parliament during the infamous constitutional crisis was unexpected, to say the least. For starters it was President Sirisena himself who triggered the constitutional deadlock by appointing former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister. When Sirisena and Rajapaksa were unable to show majority in Parliament, UPFA parliamentarians caused chaos in Parliament, destroying public property, and insulting Speaker Karu Jayasuriya.

These events took place in November and dragging them into an Independence Day address nearly three months later gives rise to fresh speculation of political relations between the SLFP, UPFA and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) members. In November, other than a Presidential statement condemning parliamentary behaviour, the President did not take disciplinary action against the offenders. In fact he also did nothing when many SLFP parliamentarians crossed over to the SLPP. Since the SLFP has not questioned the legitimacy of their party membership, it has allowed many Rajapaksa loyalists to remain in Parliament and Rajapaksa himself to become the Opposition Leader. 

The closer ties between the SLFP and SLPP, which have been in evidence for many months, was seen as a tacit agreement that Sirisena would extend support to UPFA and SLPP in return for a shot at running for a second term with their support. Last week President Sirisena was unanimously approved as the SLFP presidential candidate. However, SLPP members have openly objected to a presidential candidate from the SLFP over the last few weeks and demanded they field their own candidate. 

President Sirisena’s statement in this context is somewhat of a response or push back to the SLPP’s objection to support him. Clearly the relationship between the SLFP and SLPP will play a huge role in the coming months as the presidential election heads to a possible three-way race. At this juncture Sirisena may have thought it prudent to remind the UPFA members of the power he still wields as Executive President. The second broadside against UNP efforts to establish a national government was expected. However, it is unlikely that the President can stand against the effort if the UNP can muster the support of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) to pass it in Parliament. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) will not support a national government and UPFA has also steadfastly said it would refuse. SLFP crossovers have been told by SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera that the party could take disciplinary action against them if they vote in support of the motion, which is expected to be presented to Parliament on Thursday.

Even though the UNP will likely find the 113 votes needed, it is unlikely that expanding the Cabinet will get much public support. Given the importance of 2019 electorally, the party will be hoping that intensified internal political campaigning will outweigh the negative optics of a national government.