Trump and the middle ground

Wednesday, 20 January 2021 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

When Donald Trump was unexpectedly elected President in 2016, many saw it as a sign of wider political change sweeping the world. Several countries from Brazil to the Philippines saw strongman presidents win elections and the most common analysis was this was caused by marginalised voters who wanted to see policies that championed national interests and were deeply disillusioned by the limits of democracy. But then the COVID-19 pandemic changed the conversation.

It is difficult to draw close parallels between local and global events because politics is always local. Whatever the issues the rest of the world feel deserves attention, ultimately it is the voter on the ground that decides the list of priorities, and the rest of the world have to accept their decisions. And it would seem that those priorities changed in 2020.

Four years ago the election of Trump as the 45th President of the USA was seen as a reflection that voters were tired of traditional politicians and wanted an outsider to change the way things were done. Yet Joe Biden’s victory suggests the COVID-19 crisis, to some extent, put stability and law and order back at the centre of political discourse resulting in a political upset rarely seen in America. Many pundits agree that had it not been for Trump’s disastrous handling of the pandemic he could well have received a second term. But that was not to be.

What the voting public in and outside of the US learned over the last few years is that politician or not, smashing through democratic institutions, promoting nepotism and catering to only one demographic at the expense of other moderate communities can eventually come to haunt elected officials. Moreover, as seen in the Senate race, grassroots level organisations can have national impact and assist to flip the narrative in unexpected ways.

Obviously, America’s political culture is very different to what can be found in Sri Lanka or elsewhere. The strength of their democratic institutions, even after being hollowed out by Trump and his loyalist appointments over four years, were impressive to witness. Countries with much weaker democracies that have a traditional fondness for powerful executive presidents find it much harder to reset their democracies after they have been eroded and some simply seem to prefer it that way. But the election of Biden provides hope that the middle ground will come to mean something in politics again.

Not all leaders around the world care about democracy, most are only concerned about power. But the transition of power in the US does remind them that prompting divisiveness, racism and championing narrow policies can have serious consequences for their own well-being. Failing to understand that the COVID-19 pandemic could have serious long term social and economic impact will also not bode well for Governments. Ultimately leaders will be held accountable by the entire voting public and not just their chosen few.

No matter how revolutionary or unique a political leader may seem at first that does not guard against incumbency fatigue. This basic tenant of democracy generally tends to hold true because it is linked to human nature and ultimately it is the people all leaders have to contend with.