To extend or not?

Friday, 3 September 2021 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

With the COVID-19 taskforce set to meet today, the Government has a big decision on its hands: to continue with its de facto lockdown or not? The country has been under quarantine curfew since 20 August, a move that was simultaneously welcome and long-delayed, with several quarters of the medical fraternity having been calling for such measures in the weeks and months preceding.

At the time, the country’s COVID case load was piling up, while its healthcare system was at breaking point. Viral videos on social media purported to show patients lying on the flows of Government hospitals, while health experts were warning of a looming lack of oxygen supply. The two weeks that followed have scarcely seen a reduction in these issues, with detection numbers remaining high - 1 September being the first day since 21 August that daily detections came in below the 4,000-mark. On top of this, a recent study by Imperial College has revealed that this de facto lockdown is costing the country Rs. 22 billion a day.

It is likely that the above facts will very likely be top of the agenda at today’s meeting, but the Government would do well to consider the matter from all available perspectives.

The experts group that shared the study also recommended that the curfew/lockdown be extended until 18 September or 2 October, with an estimated 7,500-10,000 COVID deaths able to be prevented in those respective timeframes. Further, they noted that global and local evidence indicates that economies bounce back quickly once stringencies are removed, as maintaining stringency to reduce transmission, caseload and deaths would enable quicker economic recovery.

This view is aided by the fact that a reduction in caseload would also work towards removing Sri Lanka from the UK’s ‘Red’ list, something which adversely affects tourism – and something which could potentially undo the hard work being done by the tourism industry at present to promote Sri Lanka.

Among the expert recommendations for a continued lockdown were the extension of strict social measures to reduce transmission; crucial household and individual compliance; reduce mobility by better targeting the measures that should be tightened using mobility data from Google Maps, mobile phone data and Facebook data, to identify the most important measures and plan in advance for a systematic re-opening of sectors, regions, and a return of employment categories.

The experts group also recommended the need for establishing safety nets by strengthening social support systems by engaging with temples and religious groups, NGOs, civil society, etc. (i.e. a national mobilisation effort) to overcome needs of lower income groups, led by the Government (and supported by development partners as needed).

While health experts and civil society groups have criticised the Government for being less stringent in the current quarantine curfew phase, officials have insisted that a complete lockdown isn’t possible given the need for essential services to operate.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that reopening the economy and the country completely is not the solution. The Government needs to take on board these expert opinions and implement their recommendations as soon as possible, it’s the only way forward.