The people have spoken

The result is as clear as it could be. The people have given a landslide victory to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and its Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa to be Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister for the next five years. The weighty task of governance is also shared by the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), which has emerged as the main Opposition. But undoubtedly one of the biggest historical moments of this Parliamentary Election is the all-but-complete demise of the United National Party (UNP) as a significant political force. 

By the estimation of some political analysts this is the worst defeat by the UNP since independence and could be the final nail in the coffin of its embattled Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. While Wickremesinghe is unlikely to throw in the towel, the message from the voters could not be clearer, even if he chooses to stay he will be irrelevant in the power dynamics that will emerge in the next five years.

Repeated attempts to restructure the party and present it in a different format to the public has failed and the breakaway of the SJB was a death knell for the party. A large chunk of the UNP votes have clearly slipped away to the SLPP and the lower-than-2015 vote turnout in a number of areas indicate that disillusioned voters may have chosen to sit out, even though concerns over COVID-19 played a clear role as well.

Whatever the cause, the numbers are final. The UNP will have to give way to a new main Opposition. Its best hope of rejuvenation is in joining with the SJB and other Opposition parties and attempt to provide the checks and balances that a democratic system demands from Parliament members. The SJB especially has its work cut out to find its feet fast and move to push forward policies that will increase the independence of institutions and promote transparency. Obviously its biggest task will be to safeguard the 19th Amendment and its provisions from the changes that will be spearheaded by the SLPP as well as ensure dynamic engagement on matters of public finance. The Budget for 2021 is likely in November and the Government is likely to present another Vote on Account (VoA) to tide over expenses, which will be crucial given the fiscal and debt challenges facing Sri Lanka. 

The SJB together with other Opposition parties will also have to ensure that critical parliamentary bodies such as the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE), Committee on Public Accounts (COPA) and Steering Committees function vibrantly. It will also have the very important task of engaging with the public on the pros and cons of Government decisions and improving transparency. 

Having achieved its difficult goal, the SLPP must ensure that it carries out the mandate that has been given to it. The party has made its views of the 19th Amendment clear but how it plans to address its challenges while preserving its positive points such as the independent commissions remains to be seen. Top SLPP members have also said a new Constitution is in the offing and if this is the case, it must preserve the rights of all citizens. 

On an economic front the SLPP’s challenges have already been listed out. Recovering from COVID-19 and improving growth while dealing with high debt repayments will be a tough task. As will be promoting reconciliation and community relations in a country deeply riven by majoritarian politics. It is now up to the SLPP to prove itself worthy of its mandate.