Russia and Ukraine, serving up a food crisis

With each day bringing higher prices and more economic stress, across the pond too, the situation turns sour with many pointing to a food shortage. David Beasley the head of the World Food Programme has warned the Russia-Ukraine conflict could potentially see global food prices rising, with the world’s poorest being the hardest hit.

The number of people facing potential starvation worldwide had already risen from 80 million to 276 million in four years prior to Russia’s invasion, according to Beasley. In what has been dubbed “the perfect storm” of conflict, climate change and coronavirus that saw this rise; the Russia-Ukraine conflict could see supply of the world’s wheat severely hindered. Ukraine being a country with a population of 40 million is renowned for being the ‘breadbasket of Europe’ producing food for around 400 million people. This shortage could badly hit crop yields, triggering a global food crisis, in a time of high inflation and other, economic and political system stresses.

Ukraine and Russia both play a major role in food markets globally. Being net exporters of several leading cereal crops, both countries are also dominant in sunflower oil production, which is one of the world’s dominant vegetable oils. Russia and Ukraine together supply approximately 30% of global wheat, translating to 12% of the global calorie intake. In fact, for 26 wheat dependent countries, this is more than half of the wheat supply. Taken together, Ukraine and Russia account for just under 30% of the world’s barley supply while Ukraine alone provides about 15% of the global supply of corn. Both countries – along with Belarus, that has trade restrictions placed on it due to its support of Russia – are also mass producers of nitrogen and potassium fertiliser in the region, exported beyond Europe. 

As some agricultural experts point out, the greater threat to food security next year stems from the loss in crop productivity from fertiliser supply disruptions being more far-reaching. Living in the aftershock of the local chemical fertiliser ban in Sri Lanka, we could expect a similar loss in crop productivity now on a larger scale. Therefore, a disruption is this delicate supply chain is likely to affect every country in the world. Some countries – such as India – heavily rely on sunflower oil imports for domestic food preparation as well as for their food exports. Analysts have warned that the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could devastate the production of grains doubling global wheat prices.

With no end to be seen in the short term to this conflict, the impact is only likely to amplify with time as last year’s supplies, which are still in use, run out. The Russian planting season that starts in Spring would see wheat planted from April to June each year would be disrupted. However, it is also noteworthy that currently 14 million tons of wheat and 16 million tons of corn harvested last year are caught in the middle of the crossfire in Russia with the trade embargos in place. As one economist puts it, this just means that with the existing supply too “someone has to pay for those higher costs.” More pressure then mounts on governments and other donors to bridge the gap between what people are able to pay at these newer higher prices for food, so that people will not go hungry.

Hunger is a powerful motivator as witnessed in Hatti with toppled governments and in the Middle East during the start of the Arab Spring. Therefore, as many people world over brace for the food shortages and higher food prices, would people turn to, or away from, the states that failed to feed them?