PC elections

Sri Lanka’s political landscape is once again showing signs of shifting as the Government looks to hold the Provincial Council Elections in 2021. The poll is likely to have more significance than usual this time due to an evolving set of circumstances including COVID-19 impact, the timing of a new Constitution and rifts emerging in the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) coalition. 

Former President Maithripala Sirisena has already said his party is considering going solo unless the SLPP allocates a fair number of candidate slots to them. The SLFP Leader in a recent interview had pointed out that the party had been whittled down during the Parliamentary Election last year because it had not been allocated sufficient representation, expressing confidence that it could have won as many as 25 seats, had the SLPP been more accommodating. 

Sirisena’s threat to go it alone at the PC polls may have fallen flat a few months ago but growing discontent at grassroots level at the prolonged and deep impact of COVID-19 could give the dormant SLFP a chance at redemption. Unfortunately, the transgressions and incompetence of the previous administration could still haunt voters and prevent them from backing the SLFP as could Sirisena’s rather lacklustre track record as president. 

The two parties have their roots in a largely similar vote base and splintering it could impact the SLPP, which will undoubtedly want to make a strong show at the PC polls to prove public backing of their policies and COVID-19 response. The PC polls may well be held earlier rather than later, COVID-19 permitting, and provide a litmus test of sorts on how the public views this administration after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was appointed in November 2019. Given debt dynamics and other issues the Government may do well to aim for a date closer to June but much will depend on pandemic progress and public safety. 

Even though the SLPP owes much of its success to almost wholesale absorption of the SLFP vote base former President Sirisena in his latest interview sought to tread a slightly different path from its larger coalition partner, speaking of the need to establish minority inclusive policies in the country and largely backing the provincial council system. 

Sirisena backed the establishment of development boards in the provinces, pointing out that the provincial council system, even after 30 years, had not met the growth objectives of the local population. He acknowledged that provincial councils, especially in the north and east were necessary for co-existence but stopped short of suggesting how political representation and rights of minorities could be protected if the PC system is scrapped.  

The ex-President also conceded that India would not be happy with scrapping Provincial Councils via the new constitution the Government has pledged to bring to Parliament over the next few months. A segment of the Government has backed holding PC polls after the new Constitution is passed, which has thrown the entire matter into a space murky with uncertainty. For now it is unclear whether President Rajapaksa will prioritise elections or the new Constitution. 

An SLFP resurgence might also not be good news for the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), who have attempted to build more inclusive political platforms. All the major political parties may also find voter apathy their biggest foe with the masses more concerned about surviving the pandemic than caring about their provincial representatives.