Not too late to reconsider

Friday, 18 June 2021 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

For weeks experts have been pointing out the pitfalls and long and short-term ramifications of a an abrupt ban on chemical fertiliser, however the Government and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa have stuck to their guns, seemingly determined to see this move through, blind – or possibly uncaring – of the potential costs.

And now, the scientists – those whose entire lives have been dedicated to analysing precisely this kind of decision – have also waded in, with 30 scientists having written to the President calling for a ‘prudent and balanced’ approach towards a progressive reduction in inorganic fertiliser. This to be clear, is how other, more developed, countries – and one’s which had the luxury of it not being amidst a pandemic – went about the transition.

So will the Government finally reconsider? Well, it’s hard to envision that scenario given the amount of time the President has put into attempting to sway public opinion and appease the farming community. The typical Government response has been to dish out voice cuts from ministers assuring sufficient fertiliser has been imported. Import restrictions have also been loosened on organic fertiliser, while the Government has also gone as far as to assure that organic paddy will be purchased at a higher price to help farmers.

Unfortunately all these moves come with significant drawbacks. For example, the demand for fertiliser – now being met by imports – has led to allegations of an artificial shortage created by hoarders anticipating that fertiliser prices will skyrocket in the coming months, as demand outstrips supply. And given COVID-19 restrictions and other resource challenges, it is highly unlikely that organic fertiliser will be scaled up to meet required demand.

Moreover, in the Government’s assurance of buying organic paddy at higher prices, it ignores the fact that higher production prices mean higher market prices. Local consumers are already struggling with high prices. In April inflation dipped to 3.9% from 4.1% in March but food inflation at 9% is nearly three times that amount.

Multiple experts have already warned that drastically reducing the use of chemical fertiliser within a short span of time will reduce yields, cause shortages and drive up prices. It could also push thousands of farmers into debt and worsen rural economies. Sri Lanka already has a highly unproductive agriculture sector that only contributes about 7% to the country’s GDP but employs about 27% of its workforce.

Sri Lanka’s farming community is also a key vote base for the Government, which should give it incentive to deal with this issue in a more pragmatic manner. Unfortunately consultative policy making is often overlooked by governments resulting in political parties then unwisely attempting to score points by providing relief when the consequences come home to roost.

But now is as good a time as any to practice prudence and re-evaluate things. Yes, the shift to organic farming is a key policy for the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration, but it’s not a sign of weakness to admit when you’ve made a mistake. Rather, it’s a sign of courage and strong leadership. Two characteristics that the country as a whole could really use at the moment.