Do coalitions matter?

Forming coalitions and signing multiple memoranda of understanding (MoUs) is a usual practice ahead of major elections in Sri Lanka. Perhaps the larger-than-usual numbers of MoUs inked in the past few weeks is a sign of the closeness of the Presidential race currently unfolding before the public. But do the number of parties behind each candidate really make a significant difference to an election outcome or are they simply for the political actors themselves? 

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) has been at the forefront of MoU or agreement signing in this election race. They have to date signed an agreement with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), then the SLFP signed an agreement with the SLPP presidential candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and the SLFP was also one of 16 parties that signed an agreement to form the Sri Lanka People’s Freedom Alliance (SLPFA). The latter is aimed at the Parliamentary Election, where SLPP and SLFP will likely look to expand their hold on majority votes. 

Not to be outdone, the New Democratic Front (NDF) was also formed on Friday to back presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa. This MoU was the culmination of a broad front that has been under construction since mid-2019 or perhaps even earlier. While the agreement was initially supposed to be signed before end of August, it was caught up in efforts to select Premadasa as the presidential contender. Both the SLPP agreement signing ceremonies and the NDF MoU inking had a plethora of lesser-known political parties and unheard-of civil society and other organisations. 

Undoubtedly, coalitions are important in a country that is as diverse as Sri Lanka. For decades the United National Party (UNP) and the SLFP dominated local politics and at different times, they were supported by different combinations of minority, left-leaning and socialist parties. President Maithripala Sirisena came to power backed by a coalition, which included both powerful political parties and civil society organisations. So it is clearly possible for such a platform to capture the imagination of the public but without a gripping unifying cause, this is a difficult task. The last four and a half years have also shown that maintaining a coalition remains a massive challenge, and it is possible their allure has distinctly dimmed due to recent events. 

But political analysts have argued that this core base of supporters for major political parties is shrinking as rising incomes, disappointment in politicians, and exposure to different world views are fracturing traditional vote blocks. Today, a growing portion of voters, especially younger and socially mobile voters, are arguably less concerned with the party and more focused on deliverable policies. Many analysts have opined that the floating voter base could be larger this time and some could drift to alternative candidates, such as Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Mahesh Senanayake. 

Therefore it is clear that coalition building can only be successful if they are headed by credible candidates who expound and are seen as capable of meeting the priorities of voters. Coalition MoUs may still be relevant as power-brokering documents, but whether they in and by themselves can cause voter shifts is unlikely. However, they may provide useful foot soldiers for the respective candidates trying to shore up votes in an increasingly challenging environment.