Chemical fertiliser conundrum

COVID-19 has swept into Sri Lanka and understandably hogged everyone’s attention. It has ensured all eyes are firmly focused on it and media are busy trying to get as much accurate information before the public as possible to stem the rising tide of the third wave. This has left people with little attention to focus on a rather worrying development, which is the Government decision to significantly reduce imports of chemical fertiliser. 

Experts have pointed out that if it is Government policy to ban chemical fertiliser then it should be done after wide-ranging consultations that take stakeholders views into account and in a phased out manner. However, facing a tightening reserve situation and a $ 1 billion loan repayment in July, the Government has instead backed a much faster ban implementation timeline that has left farmers struggling to find fertiliser ahead of their next planting season. 

The typical Government response has been to dish out voice cuts from ministers assuring sufficient fertiliser has been imported. But there are allegations that an artificial shortage has been created by hoarders who predict prices of fertiliser will skyrocket in the coming months as demand outstrips supply. 

Given COVID-19 restrictions and other resource challenges, it is highly unlikely that organic fertiliser will be scaled up to meet required demand. This led to the Finance Ministry last week loosening some import restrictions but it is unlikely that this will adequately help farmers, who make up one of the most vulnerable segments of Sri Lanka’s socioeconomic spectrum, being squeezed from multiple fronts. 

On Wednesday the President’s Media Division (PMD) issued a statement that quoted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa giving an assurance that the Government will purchase organic paddy at a higher price. Unfortunately, the issue with this stance is that it ignores the fact that higher production prices mean higher market prices. Local consumers are already struggling with high prices. In April inflation dipped to 3.9% from 4.1% in March but food inflation at 9% is nearly three times that amount. 

Multiple experts have already warned that drastically reducing the use of chemical fertiliser within a short span of time will reduce yields, cause shortages and drive up prices. It could also push thousands of farmers into debt and worsen rural economies. Sri Lanka already has a highly unproductive agriculture sector that only contributes about 7% to the country’s GDP but employs about 27% of its workforce. 

Sri Lanka’s farming community is also a key vote base for the Government, which should give it incentive to deal with this issue in a more pragmatic manner. Unfortunately consultative policy making is often overlooked by governments resulting in political parties then unwisely attempting to score points by providing relief when the consequences come home to roost. 

The previous administration found out to their cost that chemical fertiliser shortages and attempts to introduce a voucher scheme cost them dearly at the Local Government Elections in 2018. At the time, it was the newly minted Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) that made sweeping gains across the country and capitalised on their rival’s policy mistakes that came in the backdrop of the worst drought in 40 years. 

Any drop in harvest coming in the midst of Sri Lanka’s struggle with the third COVID-19 wave will resonate for a long time to come. The Government should work in the public’s interest without thinking of elections, but it is always prudent to keep the Provincial Council Elections in mind when making decisions.