COVID-19 waves and vigilance

Colombo was looking its normal self yesterday, complete with traffic jams, as thousands of people returned to work after more than two months. Lifting the restrictions placed to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak came as a relief to many, especially those worried about the economy, but it also highlighted the need to stick to social distancing measures in the long term to avoid future lockdowns. 

The World Health Organisation (WHO) warned this week that there could be a second wave of infections that could sweep across the world, and called for countries lifting their lockdowns to be extremely careful and implement stringent social distancing and testing measures. 

WHO emergencies head Dr. Mike Ryan told an online briefing the world is still in the middle of the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak, noting that while cases are declining in many countries, they are still increasing in Central and South America, South Asia and Africa. 

Ryan said epidemics often come in waves, which means that outbreaks could come back later this year in places where the first wave has subsided. There was also a chance that infection rates could rise again more quickly if measures to halt the first wave were lifted too soon.

Countries and Governments need to be cognizant of the fact that the disease can jump up at any time. The public, health authorities and other stakeholders cannot make assumptions that just because the disease is on the way down now it is going to keep going down. WHO warned that not only could there be a surge in the present wave, but there could be a completely new second wave that could come months later and that Governments need to keep this in mind.  

He said countries in Europe, North America and elsewhere should “continue to put in place the public health and social measures, the surveillance measures, the testing measures and a comprehensive strategy to ensure that we continue on a downwards trajectory and we don’t have an immediate second peak.” 

Many European countries and US states as well as many countries around the world have taken steps in recent weeks to lift lockdown measures, which curbed the spread of the disease but caused severe harm to economies. However, unless measures are also taken to prevent a peak in the existing wave or a second wave, the relief will be short-lived and a second hit to the economy would be harder to recover from. Countries like Sri Lanka that have weak fundamentals of large budget deficits, as well as trade and current account deficits will be the worst-hit. This would be a disaster that can barely be thought about.  

Sri Lanka with its close proximity to the sub-continent and reliance on tourism and remittances remains in danger. As demonstrated by the large number of COVID-19 positive cases emerging from Sri Lankans who have returned from overseas, there is a continued need to maintain heightened vigilance. Of course these are citizens of Sri Lanka, and they deserve assistance, but there is also a need to balance this with the quarantine centres and other resources on the ground. 

Sri Lanka may also need to amp up its testing capabilities and have stronger healthcare plans in place to counter a possible second wave if the need arises. This would be additionally needed if the Supreme Court decides that elections should proceed. Discussions to reopen airports, even at a hypothetical level, will need to come with significantly more training and preparedness, and Sri Lanka will need to keep its vigilance at an all-time-high.