COVID-19 and Christmas

Monday, 21 December 2020 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

As the days tick down for the much-anticipated holiday, there are concerns that increased mobility during Christmas and New Year could see a further spike of COVID-19. While the Government is yet to announce travel restrictions, it has become necessary to consider the impact of not tightening social distancing and healthcare guidelines in the fortnight ahead.

For millions of people battered by the pandemic, the season is decidedly less festive. Both traders and families complain of not having sufficient funds to buy gifts and celebrate the end of a trying year. Thousands of businesses continue to struggle and are likely to find at least the first quarter of 2021 challenging. The hoped for uptick in economic activity in the fourth quarter of the year to pull up otherwise dismal growth numbers is unlikely to have materialised, though both manufacturing and services activities have improved in November from the previous month, according to data released by the Central Bank last week.

Given this backdrop, preventing a further spike in COVID-19 numbers is essential to give the best possible start to 2021. Every single time there has been an increase in cases the biggest casualty has been the economy and given Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic challenges the country has to renew efforts to keep the virus in check. So far the Government has carried out random antigen tests on people leaving the Western Province but this is not a sufficient deterrent given that most people return home for the holidays and travel between provinces is likely to see a sharp increase in the coming days.

The Government is seeking up to Rs. 10 billion in funds to purchase COVID-19 vaccines and has already begun preliminary evaluations on which vaccine to procure. The process of picking, purchasing, transporting and eventually inoculating millions of people locally is likely to take up a significant chunk of time and while the vaccine does provide hope that the COVID-19 nightmare may be coming to a close, it cannot replace the healthcare guidelines that have been in place for most of this year.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Central Bank for November showed that even though orders for the manufacturing sector were picking up there were concerns that staff numbers were insufficient to meet growing demand. For the public the chance to spend the holidays with their loved ones is precious but these efforts have to be tempered by the constant threat of COVID-19.

In several other countries increased mobility during the holiday season has resulted in a spike of cases. Thankfully, Sri Lanka being a tropical country does not have to worry about winter. However, daily infection numbers have remained worryingly consistent and Sri Lanka remains poised on a knife edge. Even though the Government has steadfastly refused to acknowledge community spread it is always a possibility and allowing unrestricted travel could have disastrous consequences in the New Year.

The best hope Sri Lanka has of recovery, both health and economy-wise, is to enter 2021 with the virus as much under control as possible. It will undoubtedly set the tone on how the country will perform and what prospects its people will have in the next 12 months. These are issues that the Government would do well to pay attention to.