Building a strong Opposition

Thursday, 30 July 2020 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

The United National Party’s (UNP) decision to expel 115 members, after its Working Committee affirmed a previous decision to terminate the membership of those who sought nominations from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) for the Parliamentary Election next week, is unlikely to be seen as a positive move by many.

The latest move by the UNP will not come as a shock to anyone, given the multiple rounds of infighting the public has witnessed over many years, and it does not bode well for the party’s prospects at the upcoming vote. Many political analysts are of the view that the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), which is the breakaway faction of the UNP headed by its former Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa, is likely to emerge as the main Opposition of the next Government: a position that has been held by the UNP for close to a decade in the pre-2015 two terms of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.

They also speculate that the interestingly-timed release of a committee report on the Central Cultural Fund (CCF) is a move to discredit the SJB leadership, and encourage swing voters to remain with the UNP. It is generally acknowledged that Prime Minister Rajapaksa would rather have UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as the Opposition leader, especially if there are attempts to change the Constitution, rather than a new Opposition leader, who may be backed by more vocal and independent parliamentarians.

As the days tick down to the parliamentary vote, there is still a large question mark over whether the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) will manage to nab the coveted two-thirds majority that has become their rallying cry. The lack of minority support and the overall lacklustre campaign has cast doubt over the outcome, with even top members of the SLPP unsure of what result will be announced on 6 August. It will then be down to a bidding war to see whether any crossovers can be encouraged, but such a step would be deeply unethical of any politician, and a betrayal of their constituents’ trust.

If the UNP does not get a sizeable number of seats and has to concede the main Opposition role to the SJB, then it will be a fresh low for the party and will likely spell the end of its political dominance. This Parliamentary Election could well enter the annals of history as the poll that seals the end of the two oldest parties in Sri Lanka. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), now essentially absorbed into the SLPP, will be unlikely to make any waves either.

The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is an important part of a vocal and vibrant Opposition. Their six seats should ideally be preserved or expanded if the public wish to hold the next Government accountable for its policy decisions and activities. This will be especially important if the SLPP manages to get more than a simple majority, and attempts to repeal the 19th Amendment or bring in a new Constitution. Not just the JVP, but all Opposition parties will have an additionally important role in the next Parliament to protect democratic rights, fight for transparency, and promote accountability, given the plans that have been outlined by the SLPP. This need will also need to be factored in before a final decision on who to vote for is made.