A worrying trend

Tuesday, 28 April 2020 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

It took Sri Lanka 54 days to reach the first 100 patients, and 19 days to reach 200 COVID-19 patients. But from that point the number of days started shrinking dramatically; it took only four days to reach 400 patients and on Sunday the country raced past the 500 patient mark in just two days.

Obviously the rise in numbers is because more testing is being done and, though there are questions as to why testing was not scaled up adequately shortly after curfew was imposed in March, it is nonetheless positive that Sri Lanka is reaching about 1,000 to 1,200 tests a day.

However, there are two points that still need focus; one, testing needs to be scaled up to a higher level and this will need concentrated support from the Government and the test results are showing that Sri Lanka is precariously close to community spread, if not already there, which means that easing curfew for high risk areas is additionally worrying.

The sheer numbers being tested positive from the Welisara camp is deeply saddening. The Navy, which along with the military and public sector officials, were at the frontlines of the COVID-19 countering efforts are now facing the same danger themselves. As of Sunday 27 Navy personnel who were on leave were also diagnosed, raising fears of community spread in multiple areas of the country where curfew was eased last week.

The swift increase of patients also raises care worries. By mid-day on Monday 34 more cases were identified, bringing the total number of active cases to 424 patients. Several countries around the world, including Singapore, contained the first wave of infections only to lose control of the second wave that came with the gradual reopening of the country. Sri Lanka is facing that same challenge now, perhaps heightened by the constitutional problems and economic challenges, but arguably human lives are the most important and if active cases continue to grow with such rapidity, the entire healthcare system could be overwhelmed in a very short period of time. But it certainly makes sense to prepare for such an eventuality as even countries with much small populations than Sri Lanka, which responded with lock downs sooner have notched up over 1,000 patients when they expanded testing. It is now imperative for the Government to implement social distancing measures with the utmost strictness.

There will be instances when individuals or companies may chose to ignore the measures as they are cumbersome and could incur more cost. There is also need to consider alternatives to prevent breaching the Constitution and have policy level responses to the economic challenges that beset the country including how to repay debt and keep the Budget deficit from expanding to unmanageable levels. Key Opposition parties yesterday in an open statement called on President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to reconvene Parliament extending all support to contain COVID-19 and avoid a potential constitutional breach. So far the President has shown no signs of relenting and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) has contended itself by casting aspersions on the genuineness of the support offered. But given the trajectory of patient numbers, it is perhaps better to test the faith professed by the Opposition parties, rather than swift mitigation of COVID-19.