Sri Lanka plans to add 8361MW to national grid in 20 years require $ 14.5 b investment

Sri Lanka requires over $ 14.5 billion to implement the least cost long term power generation plan for the next 20 years, the electricity sector regulator, Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) said in a statement. 

The State power supplier, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) has prepared a Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan (LCLTGEP) 2018-2037 projecting the growth of energy demand for the next 20 years. The PUCSL recently opened the path for public to comment on the LCLTGEP.

The LCLTGEP, has been compiled based on the results of the latest electricity expansion planning studies conducted by the CEB for the planning period of 2018-2037 and aims to cater the forecasted demand growth by identifying the least cost plant addition sequence based on the most sustainable technology to avoid electricity shortfalls in the country.

According to the LCLTGEP, the generation demand is expected to grow 5.9% per year from 2018 -2022 while in addition the peak demand is expected to grow at 5.1% per year. The same is expected to grow 4.9% per annum from 2018-2037 which the peak demand is expected to cross at 4.5%.

The current Sri Lankan power system had a total installed capacity of approximately 4018 MW by the end of the year 2016 with a total dispatchable capacity of 3538 MW, including non-dispatchable plants of capacity 516 MW owned by private sector developers.

Sri Lanka recorded 2453MW of maximum demand in 2016 and generated a total of 14250GWh of electricity in the same year.

According to the expected growth, it is identified that the grid should have an installed capacity of 4269 MW in the beginning of 2018 and 10783 MW by the end of 2037.

The proposed energy mix for the next 20 years consist, major hydro, coal, pumped storage hydro, combined cycle, oil and gas turbine plants.

According to the plan, least cost has been a major concern while environmentally friendliness has been an added value in identifying the technology options for the generation mix of the next 20 years.

The CEB plans to add 15MW of mini hydro power, 160MW of solar power, 5MW of biomass, 320MW of oil based power to the national grid in the year 2018.

From 2018- 2037, Sri Lanka plans to add 842MW of Major Hydro, 215MW of Mini Hydro, 1389MW of Solar, 1205MW of Wind,85MW of Bio Mass, 425MW of oil Based Power, 1500MW of Natural Gas, 2700MW of Coal power into the electricity generation system.

In total the Indian Ocean Island plans on 8361MW of new additions (including the committed power plants) to the national grid in the period of 20 years from 2018.

“The total investment required for implementing the 2018-2037 plan in the next 20 years is approximately $ 14.568 billion (Rs. 2,168.93 billion),” the PUCSL said.

According to the plan, a total of 2938MW Other Renewable Energy (ORE) capacity will be developed during the planning horizon in order to ensure environmental conservation commitment. This may avoid the construction of 900MW coal power plants during the planning horizon which shall in return reduce the CO2 emissions by 17%.

The additional present value cost of $ 153 million is absorbed by the electricity sector in order to mitigate climate change impacts in accordance with the government policies.

The LCLTGEP says it is imperative that the power plants are implemented as scheduled in Base Case 2018-2037.

The plan has been submitted to PUCSL for the approval.

According to Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka Director General Damitha Kumarasinghe, the Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan is one of the most important plan in a nation as it plans the electricity generation for the country for the next 20 years to ensure energy security as the least cost plant mix for each year is identified by analyzing and evaluating various technology options.

The plan serves as a guideline to facilitate the decision makers in making decisions in line with national policy objectives, by exploring and evaluating various generation technology options in different situations, he added.

“By opening the path to the public, we hope to involve all the related and interested parties in the decision-making process through opinions, views, alternative proposals and suggestions on the LCLTGEP 2018-2037 and therefore we hope to increase the transparency of the approval process and increase public participation in the decision-making process of Sri Lanka’s most important energy generation plan.”

The plan is available at www.pucsl.gov.lk for public reference.

Those who are interested can submit their written comments/submissions to the Commission by post/fax or e-mail and even the comments can be made online at www.pucsl.gov.lk on or before 6 June. Further, PUCSL will also hold an oral submission on 15 June and the venue and the date of the meeting will be communicated to the parties at an early date.