The fall of the pharaohs

After Tunisia’s Jasmine revolution, the Tahrir Square Facebook and Twitter revolution in Egypt, will other dominos fall? What about the sustainability of the changes?

The Egyptians like to say ‘The Nile may bend and turn, but it will never dry up, so also the Tahrir Square revolution.’ Will the popular protests and uprisings sweeping seemingly inexorably through West Asia and North Africa jeopardise the stability of the other authoritarian regimes in the region?

The revolts have been largely home-grown affairs, led by secular forces, sudden and unpredicted; neither the CIA (USA) nor Mossad (Israel) predicted them.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit which has compiled a Democracy Index for 2010, there are 55 authoritarian regimes in the world. Many of them are in West Asia and North Africa – if one moves on an East to West axis across the northern part of the African continent, Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iran, Yemen and Kuwait are ones that stick in your eye. Further to the South West, Oman and the Emirs of the United Arab Emirates are also watching the situation evolve with trepidation.

The Egyptian monarchy

In ancient Egypt, when the Pharaoh passed away, he was mummified and placed in a crypt in a Pyramid built in his honour; it was an opulent crypt together with the symbols of state power, treasure and his favourite personal effects.

The Great Valley of the Nile, which creates a slender green oasis through the Sahara desert, is considered to be one of the cradles of civilisation. By about 3000 BC a network of farming villages, whose population was of urban density, had developed.

Tradition credits the founding of the Egyptian monarchy to Menes (3100 BC) whose conquest of northern Egypt laid the foundation for what is referred to as the Old Kingdom. The Pharaohs did not rule on behalf of the gods, but were considered divine beings themselves.

Their colossal tombs, the pyramids, were considered great religious works. The most famous pyramid is the Great Pyramid of Cheops at Gizeh (2500 BC). The development of hieroglyphic writing in Egypt facilitated both the administrative and religious roles of the Egyptian monarchy.

The Hykos conquerors on their war chariots invaded the Nile valley and ruled from 1800 to 1600 BC. The Pharaohs drove out the Hykos and created the New Kingdom in the Nile valley (1570 to 1065 BC) consolidated monarchical rule.

They expanded the empire into Syria and went as far as the Euphrates River. In time they established an Egyptian empire consolidating Egypt, Palestine and Syria, in which local princes ruled while Egyptian bureaucrats and military generals safeguarded imperial interests, especially the payment of taxes and tributes.

Egyptian control southwards along the Nile into Sudan and Nubia was also re-established. Most pharaohs built their pyramid during their lifetime, in order to ensure that they were not short changed in comparison to their predecessors in size and opulence.

Colonial powers

In the modern period, Egypt has been governed by colonial powers, kings and military strong men. Gamal Abdul Nasser was one of them, a military man who nationalised the Suez Canal in 1956.

Britain and France went to war against Egypt. General Anwar Sadat also joined up with Nasser to oust King Farouk of Egypt in 1952. The United States opposed the Suez war, which was a political disaster for Britain and her allies.When Nasser died in 1970 Sadat succeeded him. Sadat tried to make peace with Israel, which earned him the ire of Muslim extremists and they assassinated him at a military parade in 1981.

Hosni Mubarak, absolute ruler of Egypt for three decades, who was the Commander of the Egyptian Air Force at that time and was on the saluting dais next to President Sadat when he was assassinated, succeeded Sadat.

Modern day pharaoh

He was a modern day pharaoh, in every sense of the word, like his predecessors, King Farouk, Nasser and Sadat, strong men who it was assumed could thwart the forward march of Muslim fundamentalism.

Mubarak has now retired to his palace at Sharm el Sheikh, under heavy military guard, a virtual modern day pyramid, while shopping around for a suitable and willing location for exile. Reports indicate that he is quite sick and has to be helped to even walk.

Mubarak announced earlier that he would not be contesting the presidential election scheduled for September 2011 and that his son Gamal, whom many thought he was grooming to succeed him, would also not contest.

The Egyptian Army has taken control of the country, with the usual platitudes of returning the nation to civilian rule very early. The early signs seem positive, two senior generals met with some of the youthful campaigners from Tahrir Square and in their discussions on a way forward, according to Facebook posts by the youngsters, showed ‘unprecedented respect for the opinions of the young people’.

In Egypt, the minority Coptic Christians joined the young Muslims on the streets defying their 87-year-old Patriarch who called on them to support the government. It is estimated that 365 people lost their lives in the revolution. Which modern day pharaoh will follow?

When Hafez al Assad was succeeded by his son Bashar, some time ago, as president of Syria, the Syrians asked themselves: ‘In what way is the presidency of Syria similar to HIV Aids?’ The answer: ‘Both are sexually transmitted!’

We in South Asia are well inured to presidencies and prime minister-ships being sexually transmitted!

Tunisia’s Jasmine revolution sent President Ben Ali seeking refuge in Saudi Arabia. The domino effect then moved to Tahrir Square in Cairo. Mubarak tried his best to stall it and stonewall but pressure from the protestors in Tahrir Square, the Egyptian Army and President Obama were too much to face up to. Mubarak threw in the towel.

King Abdullah of Jordan fired his Prime Minister. This is standard operating procedure for the Hashemite kings; his father King Hussein ran through 56 prime ministers in 46 years!

Crackdown in Bahrain

The Bahrainis went on demonstration, took over a prominent roundabout, the Lulu (Pearl) roundabout in the capital city of Manama and renamed Martyr’s Square, commemorating Tahrir Square in Cairo.

The news is that the Bahraini police had used force to break up the demonstration and clear out the protestors. A number of protestors had been killed. The Bahrainis chanted ‘the people demand the fall of the regime,’ which has been the battle cry of the protectors across the region.

The latest is that the protestors are back at the roundabout, the Police and Army having been pulled back. Bahrain is complicated, as a Sunni royal family rules over a Shiite majority of citizens.

While Sunni majority Saudi Arabia supports the Sunni royal family in Bahrain, the Shia rulers in next door Iran, covertly, it is feared, support the downtrodden Sunni majority. This Sunni, Shia divides makes Bahrain a very sensitive place, over and above complicating the lives of all the Muslim rulers both Arab and non Arab in the region and worldwide.

The government seems to have cracked down hard on the protestors in Bahrain, five deaths have been reported. But at the same time attempts are being made to placate the people,

Bahrain’s Government has promised a handout of US$ 2,700 per family. The Crown Prince of Bahrain is trying to negotiate with the protestors, while the prestigious Bahrain Formula One car race which traditionally inaugurates the international racing season has been indefinitely postponed.

There are demonstrations in Algeria against another long standing dictator, Bouteflika. In Yemen the President has declared that he will not re-contest the presidential election and that his son will not enter politics. Yet the protesters are out on the streets, taking on the police and army.

In Saudi Arabia, the House of Saud is holding firm in its alliance with Wahhabism, Prince Nayef, the Interior Minister has said: “What we won by the sword, we will keep by the sword.”

Libya protests

In Libya, where President Gaddafi had commented that the people of Tunisia were too hasty is dispatching President Ben Ali into exile, Libyan authorities have begun to round up activists prior to a ‘Day of Anger’ called for on Facebook, to commemorate the death of a demonstrator in 2006 during the protests against the Danish cartoon depicting the Prophet Mohammed.

In Libya’s second city, Benghazi, a prominent lawyer has been arrested in what appears to be a pre-emptive strike by the authorities. Authorities have orchestrated pro-government demonstrations, demonising al-Jazeera, the Qatar based TV channel which has given wide coverage to the anti autocrat protests in the Arab world.

The leaders of the Emirate of Qatar have, in turn, criticised the attacks on protestors in Libya. Tripoli the capital has seen pro-Gaddafi demonstrations, while in other cities there have been anti-Gaddafi protests.

It is reported that the Eastern part of Libya has been taken over by protestors and the Government of Gaddafi has been driven out. Protestors have destroyed models of Gaddafi’s Green Book, something similar to Mao’s Little Red Book.

There are allegations that French-speaking foreign mercenaries from Chad have been inducted to strengthen the Army and Riot Police. Gaddafi’s son has gone on TV warning that “Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt” and that there “might be civil war, if the protests do not stop”.

Gaddafi himself has gone on TV urging his followers to “take back the streets” in Tripoli and other cities, lambasting his opponents as “cockroaches and greasy rats!” in a rambling 75 minute address, standing in the ruins of his house which US warplanes bombed in President Ronald Reagan’s time.

Countries such as Britain, China, India, Italy and Egypt are pulling out their citizens from Libya. Historically, Gaddafi as a young infantry officer was seen as a potential troublemaker by the then King Idris of Libya, who moved him away from a fighting unit to a signal regiment, in charge of the military radio communication centre. Captain Gaddafi sat at this critical communication hub and orchestrated the military coup which ousted King Idris in 1969!

Gaddafi well knows the power of communication, currently in Libya the internet is down! But even he may not be able to counter this Facebook and Twitter revolution! At the time of writing the wire services are reporting the death of 140 protestors. Facebook dissidents in Libya gathered some 20,000 online followers.

Senior officials of the administration are breaking ranks and opposing Gaddafi, two fighter pilots flew their Mirage jets to Malta refusing to attack the protestors in Tripoli and Benghazi, the latter is reported to be under protestor’s control.

Winston Churchill once described Malta as “an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean Sea”; his prophecy is coming true as far as Libyan opponents of Gaddafi are concerned!

Shockwaves

Supporters of Iran’s opposition Green Movement took to the streets in a number of cities. In Syria, the government sentenced a 19-year-old female blogger to five years in prison for ‘espionage’.

In Morocco 10,000 turned out at a pro-democracy demonstration. In Saudi Arabia the King has announced a $ 36 billion welfare package including allowances for the unemployed, a 15% salary rise for government servants, financial aid for students and a reprieve for imprisoned debtors, in an attempt to alleviate dissent.

A great boulder has been dropped into the hitherto stagnant pool of Arab despotism in the Maghreb and North Africa, sending shockwaves throughout the region. The oppressed peoples of the region hitherto had been doomed to live under strong men who have hoarded their ill-gotten wealth, beaten down and suppressed dissent, with the only alternative on the horizon, the Islamists who have imposed their harsh beliefs and beaten down dissent are oppressors too, in the eyes of some. In places like Saudi Arabia and Iran, the autocrats and the Wahabi Islamists or the Shia Islamists have merged into one.

Difference in Egypt

What was different in Egypt? Some call it the Facebook Revolution. Wael Ghonim, a young Egyptian, married to an American, working for Google, based in Dubai, set up a Facebook group titled ‘We are all Khalid Said’ to commemorate a young Egyptian protestor who was beaten to death by the Egyptian Police.

Ghonim handled Google’s marketing in West Asia and he knew that ‘If you build a brand, you can get people to trust the brand’. He filled the site with video clips and newspaper articles on the violence against the protestors in Tahrir Square.

His message was simple: “This is your country, a government official is your employee who gets his salary from your tax money, and you have your rights.” His special focus was on the lies and distortions the state media was broadcasting, he knew that if he could get people to distrust the state media, then he would not lose them!

25 January was a public holiday in Cairo, Police Day, to commemorate a revolt by the colonial Egyptian Police against the British rulers. Ghonim used his Facebook page to summon protestors to Tahrir Square. He hoped for 50,000 people, more than 100,000 turned up! From that point onwards the process in Cairo took on a scenario of inevitability, which ended the Egyptian Army giving Mahathir marching orders.

Obama administration

In Washington DC the Government of the Obama administration had been debating the Domino possibility of the events in Tunisia. The feedback from the Saudis and the Israelis was that they felt that Mubarak was secure and should be supported.

The President felt differently, he saw the events as an anti authoritarian trend, he felt it an opportunity to show the Arab world an alternative to Al Qaeda. The United States seemed to have moved on from the time when, during the height of the Cold War, the Secretary of State, described a pro-American third world dictator as: “He may be a son of a bitch, but he is our son of a bitch.”

The President and Vice President made a few calls to Mubarak and Omar Suleiman, the new Egyptian Vice President. But the regime seemed intransigent. Finally the determination of the protestors pushed the Army into acting.

Core similarities

Are there any core similarities in these countries which seem to create and foster this crisis? Some may cite human rights abuses, the absence of basic freedoms, rampant corruption, nepotism, the presence of a small elite that controls the bulk of the nations assets, poor governance, weak social services, economic hardship in the sense of falling incomes, high unemployment and rising inflation and large young, educated and restless populations as some common features.

Reliance on mineral-based national income, mainly oil, the resultant ‘Resource Curse’ and the economic excesses of the ruling coterie due to the unequal distribution of oil income is also a common feature.

Geriatric leaders

The longer ageing geriatric dictators hang on to power, indulging in all sorts of convoluted machinations to ‘sexually transmit’ their rule to their progeny, all the while philandering the natural wealth of their nation in an opulent extravaganza, the more out of touch and corrupt their regimes tend to become, and the more of an anachronism and an affront to their long-suffering people.

The autocrats stood for paternalistic, unaccountable authority. They ruled bewilderingly in the guise of kings, presidents for life, rustic tribal elders as in Yemen, sectarian leaders in smartly tailored Harrods suits in Lebanon, bearded and turbaned mullahs in Iran and idiosyncratic populists in Libya.

Geriatric leaders who have served for many long years are also a common feature – Mubarak was in office for 29 years, Ben Ali ruled Tunisia for 23 years, Abdullah Saleh has ruled Yemen for 33 years, and Gaddafi has ruled Libya for 40 years. The Saudi, Bahrain, Moroccan and Jordanian royal families have ruled their kingdoms since inception. Algeria and Syria also have long standing rulers or family rule ‘sexually transmitted!’

Domination by ruling elite is also a common feature. The alienated, the marginalised and the excluded will have a limit to their tolerance of family, tribal or coterie rule. There is a generation gap between the rulers and the protestors, the two cannot comprehend each other.

Homemade people’s revolution

It was remarkable secular movement that bravely took to the streets of Cairo, helping Egyptians to overcome decades of fear and collectively act to chase out a regime thought to be one of the most entrenched in the world.

It was a homemade people’s revolution, accomplished by brilliant organisation, steadfast determination and massive sacrifice. There was no violence by the protestors, the lessons of Mohandas Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela had been learnt well and put into practice.

Neither was there foreign intervention, indeed the world watched on anxiously worried about the repercussions, a classical vindication of the validity of the ‘Law of Unexpected Consequences!’ – Especially on crude oil prices, which seem to be on an inevitable and inexorable rise as the crisis escalates in the region.

Regional tsunami

Two months ago a youthful Tunisian fruit seller, an underemployed graduate, poured petrol on himself, struck a match and self-immolated in frustration, having no other means of protesting against corrupt officials and lack of equal opportunity which bedevilled his life.

Little did he realise that his death would unleash a regional tsunami, a thundering cascade of dissent, drowning all before it, beautifully and tragically immortalised in this emotive couplet sung by the young protestors in Cairo’s Tahrir Square: “From every street in my country/the sound of freedom calls/we broke all boundaries/our weapon was our dreams.”

(The writer is a lawyer, who has over 30 years experience as a CEO in both government and private sectors. He retired from the office of Secretary, Ministry of Finance and currently is the Managing Director of the Sri Lanka Business Development Centre.)