Living within our means is a virtue

It’s the holiday season once again. Christmas cheer is all around and another new year is fast approaching. Night races of fuel guzzler cars are held as proof that there is peace around us in the City of Colombo. At least, that is what we are made to believe by some commentators.

Will the glittering lights of the night clubs and the many night events or the ability to roam the city streets at night and make merry, tell us that we are free? Thankfully, we do not hear much of those brawls of VIP youth brandishing pistols at these events that used to be the talk of the big town in the years gone by.

We have also seen the walls come down of public buildings; even the Police stations. Walkways are paved. Pavements cleared for pedestrians and vendors moved to more organised arenas.

No barbed-wire or tar barrel blockades and more respectful treatment at security checkpoints to all, regardless of race or creed. But most of all we do not carry that felling of fear of that roadside bomb or the suicide bomber anymore. Those to me are true signs of emerging peace and cause for some celebration.

I recall year-end of 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami and the immediate aftermath. While many concerned were lending their effort to help those in distress, many others were observed to be hell-bent on making merry that New Year’s Eve with the usual revelry, regardless of what was happening not too far away from them.

The only exceptions, I was told, were the guilt-release announcements of a contribution made from the proceeds towards the tens of thousands of brethren dead and hundreds of thousands made homeless housed in shelters.

We heard of the heroics of villagers, the foreign nationals who assisted and the many TV stations and other entities that went on branded yathras (caravans) to assist with essentials, materials and clothes collected.

Warming planet

The recent climate talks in Durban South Africa failed to reach any consensus of agreeing on firm commitment to reduce CO2 emissions, just like at the 16 others held before that.

Of course, some deals were made. Like the agreement of a US$ 100 fund dangled as a carrot at the most affected nations and consulting entities therein, to keep them somewhat quiet. There was agreement that human kind will have a sure deal by 2015 and it will be implemented by 2020.

Critical levels

Yet many climate scientists and others who have tracked what’s happening are of the view that the earth may not be able to withstand the current onslaught for that long and that we may enter a track of no return in terms of global warming.

According to the Global Carbon Project, an international group of scientists tracking the numbers global emissions of carbon dioxide increased 5.9 per cent in 2010, the largest increase on record. This increase, reports the New York Times, is “almost certainly the largest absolute jump in any year since the Industrial Revolution, and the largest percentage increase since 2003”.

Another study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, traces an estimated three-quarter of the planet’s warming since 1950 to human activities. On top of that, the World Meteorological Organization warned that 10 of the hottest years ever recorded has occurred in the last 15 years, with temperatures this year registering as the 10th highest on record.

It’s obvious that the world is getting warmer at an accelerating rate and like the financial crisis most of the Western World is facing due to living beyond one’s (nations and persons) means, it is made by indiscriminate and non-prudent policy decisions made while adopting wasteful ways of living.

To avoid the most devastating effects of climate change, we as humans are expected to limit the earth’s warming to 2°C. For that to happen, emission volumes cannot exceed 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide. Since emissions have already reached 390 ppm, higher than any other time in recorded history, the International Energy Agency warns that action cannot be delayed past 2017. As we noted as per the Durbin agreement, emissions won’t be cut until 2020.

“Unless something drastic pushes our leaders to change the destructive path we’re on, 2011 may go down in the history books as the year that humans irreversibly screwed themselves and the planet,” states a commentary in a story titled ‘8 Stories Buried By the Corporate Media That You Need to Know About’ published on the website pongogonzo.wordpress.com.

Economic front

On the economic and financial front the crisis seems to loom large as well. A report entitled ‘Outlook on the Global Agenda 2012’ released on 12 December 2011 of the World Economic Forum talks about the “rollback of globalisation,” “the possibility of more civil and social unrest,” “the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression,” “stresses on natural resources and accelerating climate extremes,” “widespread mistrust in public institutions,” “examples of political paralysis,” “decision-making gridlock in the world’s largest markets,” “a vacuum of leadership on global issues” and “significant health, economic, social, political and ecological challenges” posed by rapid population growth in many countries.

As reported by Imtiaz Muqbil, Editor of the Bangkok-based Travel Newswire, following is a synopsis of the six key challenges identified by the World Economic Forum’s participants in the Summit on the Global Agenda, convened in October 2011 in Abu Dhabi:

1.The global economic outlook: Dominated by the crisis in the Eurozone, economic discussion is driven by the state of sovereign balance sheets. In 2008, when developed country governments stepped in to support their banking systems through the financial crisis, they brought the problem onto their own balance sheets. The world’s largest economies are now facing sovereign debt crises and this at a time when many countries are facing slow or negative growth and significant levels of unemployment. As a result, 2012 is likely to see increasing instability due to the absence of a sound and globally accepted financial regulatory system, lack of confidence in market participants or facilitators, and speculation.

2.Global power shifts and emerging markets: Economic and political power is continuing to move from north to south and west to east. The transition is weakening the multilateral system of global governance structured on international institutions, and encouraging the rise of regionalism across many domains of international relations, including security, trade and finance. 2012 will see accelerated transfer of influence from traditional state-centred institutions to coalitions of the willing and non-state actors, manifested in diplomacy and action by networks of actors and regional organisations. These trends reveal a shift from large, expensive, institutional power to small, low-cost, unpredictable and grass-roots sources of power, such as the ‘Arab Spring’ or the ‘Indignados’ and ‘Occupy movements’.

3.Inclusive growth and employment creation: Persistent and sticky unemployment has become the most significant economic and political issue faced by leaders across large swathes of the world. Unemployment is a manifestation of a number of structural faults: growth is too often achieved in boom/bust cycles; global population is rising; the divide between rich and poor continues to widen; and there is an increasing gap between education, skills and jobs.

4.Political entrenchment and multi-stakeholder governance: Faced with the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, political systems in the United States and Europe have been found wanting. Decision-making gridlock in the world’s largest markets has pushed global systems to the brink. Meanwhile, as governments around the world have turned inward to focus on solving domestic economic and social issues, a vacuum of leadership on global issues has been growing. Political institutions are faced with a critical loss of public trust, which is amplifying the need for direct action on behalf of a disenchanted and often desperate public. With weakening of states, new mechanisms such as multi-stakeholder partnerships in various forms and at different levels are expected to play a bigger role in delivering public value.

5.Natural resource scarcity and climate change: Stresses on natural resources and accelerating climate extremes will increasingly impact economic development and growth in many countries. Economic pressures will encourage innovation in sustainable growth technologies and models, but governments will come under pressure to set a visionary agenda for the 21st century at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012.

6.The digital revolution: The internet has become a key pillar of global prosperity. Work, leisure, consumption and policy decisions, supply chains, safety systems and communications – every aspect of modern life is shaped by the continually evolving digital world. But the infiltration of digitalism into human affairs has brought peril as well as prosperity. Non-state actors are challenging the enforcement capacity and legitimacy of the state in this digital environment. Centralised groups and hierarchies are moving towards more distributed networks, representing a shift in the balance of power. Moves by governments worldwide to tighten control over cyberspace are exacerbating tensions tied to citizens’ privacy, freedom of expression and demands for more transparency. Social media and the need for security are generating a move towards a more compartmentalised and fragmented internet.

These then are the issues and trends as identified by leaders of nations, areas of study and observation. We as both citizens of Mother Earth and Mother Lanka can either choose to ignore them and carry on regardless making merry or make our little effort to contribute positively to mitigating the negatives by taking on more austere and prudent ways of living, while calling on all others to take heed. That then will add to not only to our seasonal cheer this season but for many more seasons to come.

(Renton de Alwis is a former Chairman of Sri Lanka Tourism serving two terms during 2000-2002 and from 2007-2008. He served as Head of the Asia Division of the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) based in Singapore from 1990-96 and as CEO of the National Association of Travel Agents Singapore from 1997-99. He also served as a Chief Technical Advisor and consultant with the ADB, UNDP, UNWTO, ESCAP, UNICEF and the ILO. Now in retirement, Renton lives away from Colombo in the Deep South of Sri Lanka and is involved in writing and social activism. He can be contacted at [email protected].)