When will the fuel queues end?

No wonder this is a question in everyone’s mind. But sad to say that as matters stand the answer appears to be not in the near future at best. Unless some drastic and courageous action is taken now, this answer could end up being not for a long time! 

As a Sri Lankan I am most grateful to those thousands of my fellow citizens who patiently wait for hours and occasionally days in miles-long queues, hoping to reach the top of the queue before the next bowser load runs out. That has happened to many with the total lack of management to ease this burden on the consumers, with scant regard to at least alleviate their hardship and misery. However it would be most foolhardy to assume that this patience would last, as already seen in some sporadic instances, mercifully few so far but with an increasing trend.

As such it is important to examine what led to the severity of the problem, and the possibility of ensuring that whatever action we do take with limited facilities and finances are well-considered and would lead to reducing the problem and hardships and could alleviate the impact at least in the years to come.

The problem started with the electricity shortages, the cause and responsibility of which must be assigned to the engineers of the Utility CEB, due to their already demonstrated ineptitude and incompetence, but also with the possibility of wilful manipulation. Those in the Ministry of Power and Energy and higher up in the Government are therefore equally to blame for not recognising this and taking timely action. 

But what happened when hydro resources started drying up? Their standard ploy was to make use of this well-known phenomenon to deploy expensive oil-based emergency generation, for which plans were made last year when we were enjoying ample rainfall. But this plan went awry due the drastic loss of our dollar reserves. However, what triggered the present crisis of fuel shortages for the transport sector was the decisions made to continue the power generation using the scarce and by this time the most expensive oil to minimise the hours of power cuts.

The fact that this hasty and ill-conceived decision led to diverting whatever dollars available for import of oil, with priority given for power generation, thus depriving the fuel needed for transport. The dollars spent for the import of coal, which now has without doubt debunked the claim of coal power being the cheapest means of power generation, added to the woes. The scale of destruction caused by this illogical decision was highlighted when the Petroleum authorities declared that the electricity sector used per day, 4 times the daily oil requirement to feed the transport sector.

What is more important for the country? Is it to keep the lights burning or to keep the transport sector alive? There would be the set argument to say that electricity should take priority. Such claims are to be expected in this country, where the electricity sector, which provides only 12% of the total energy demand, occupies more than 95% of the attention and favour of the Government. Up to now over a trillion rupees of losses by the CEB, most of which would be in foreign exchange has been a major drain on the economy. 

Over 33% of the electricity is consumed by the domestic sector and 22.5% by the general and Government sector, which are not sources of foreign exchange earnings, essential to keep the economy alive. The industrial sector which consumes only 30% and does earn the foreign exchange are mostly equipped with their own generators. And would not have been so drastically affected. While these too naturally consume imported oil yet, the usage would be targeted to an activity leading to recovery of dollars many times more than the cost of the oil used, a short duration.

But the rest of the entire economy including the agriculture and fisheries which are essential sectors, are dependent on petrol and diesel and have ground to a near halt now. 

Hopefully, the worst is over in the electricity sector at least, with the rains making a comeback. But are we ready to critically examine and implement the best options at least now. No doubt the dollar reserves have dwindled even further, and just to keep going Sri Lanka is totally dependent on more and more loans and the goodwill of our friends. But the important decision is to make sure that such loans and goodwill are utilised to gradually overcome the problem by directing them toward avenues which at least in the coming months can generate export income and also ensure retaining of our overseas customers for a hopefully better future.

Another very important sector which requires some special attention and a well-structured methodology, is to ensure the supply of fuel for the agricultural machinery and transport equipment as well as for the fisheries sector.

It was reported yesterday the contribution of major hydro reached 55% (and 68% contribution by all RE sources), of the generation and also it is hoped that the Unit one of Lakvijaya coal power plant would be back in operation shortly. Even though we are paying a horrendous price for generation of electricity using coal of over Rs. 70 per unit at least, there is a left-handed kind of relief and room for a more visionary short-term strategy, as we are reported to have enough coal to last four months. 

Under these circumstances, when all oil-based power plants have been shut over the past week or two, do we have the courage to decide that they would remain shut forever? This is the kind of courageous decision expected from the new youthful Minister of Power and Energy, whose post at last is meaningful being responsible for both the Electricity Sector and the Petroleum Sector, the other major source of energy. I will not bring up the most important indigenous source of renewable energy, BioMass Energy, which even now contributes 43% of the total energy without the need for any imported fuel. This I will address separately.

However, to make the above decision easier for the Minister and the PUCSL, it is important to recognise that the already installed solar systems both roof top and ground mounted, stand at over 500 MW. We saw the ill-considered schedules of power cuts, which made the contribution from this huge source of power being made totally ineffective during the daytime hours. The wind power plants too would have been wasting the valuable and zero cost solar energy generated during the daytime hours.

Now that we have an improved hydro contribution do we have the courage to limit the power cuts to early morning hours and the night peak hours? I must hasten to add that we have to be careful in the usage of the hydro resources to ensure the mistake done last year is not repeated to cause the same mess next year too. The PUCSL has an important role to play here with a more credible contribution than merely approving the power cut hours requested by the CEB.

If these decisions and actions are taken immediately, then the limited access to Dollars available for import of petrol and diesel or crude oil can be directed to serve primarily those who have the ability to make positive contributions such as industries and their suppliers.

Once more due to the past sins whereby our public transport systems are not seeing any progress, the 800,000 or more three-wheelers are filling a need, however inefficient they are as a means of transport. As such supply of petrol to them and to the public transport system and any other such service providers have to be factored in. This would also apply to some extent to the private car owners, but needs to be controlled to meet the essential transport and not joy rides. If the public transport is beefed up some private car owners could be encouraged to use this mode of transport more, thus further reducing the demand for petrol.

Short-term solutions

While these difficult but essential actions are put in place, I would like to suggest some measures which can be implemented in the short term and are sure to contribute positively.

The roof top solar PV industry has achieved great progress by adding over 500 MW to the national grid by the end of 2021. They are poised to continue this progress at a much more accelerated rate, but are hamstrung due to the lack of foreign exchange for the import of the essential solar panels and other equipment. Whatever dollars spent for this purpose will be recouped in a short time due to the reduction of import of oil or coal, both inputs now at record high prices and no longer economical by any means.

The CEB authorities have now shown some flexibility and claim to be supportive of the development of rooftop solar. Hope they would walk the talk at least by reducing the inordinate delays seen in the past in their approval and inspection activities. On the other hand unless they are also proactive in overcoming some technical issues which would hinder the accelerated expansion of roof top solar PV under the present Solar Sangramaya system such progress would be limited. If these facilitations are in place we could foresee the addition of at least 150 MW of Solar PV during the balance six months of the year. Even under the present increased cost structure due to upheavals in the world market exacerbated by the highly depreciated Rupee, there are enough consumers who have shown interest in contributing.

On the other hand if the CEB is not ready or able to overcome the grid connection difficulties, this program might encounter some barriers and limitations.

The role of ‘prosumers’

While even the present adherents to the Surya Sangraamaya system may be considered ‘prosumers’, the present power cuts and the very real possibility of the continuing of same in the near future or even for a longer period, has given much impetus to many consumers with adequate means to look at the possibility of non-dependence on the national grid. The availability and popularity of battery storage has made this technically viable. The discomfort and annoyance of having to suffer the power cuts on extended hours, which certainly can increase if the Norochcholai power plant suffers any more outages, would drive some consumers to embrace this option. It has the advantage of not relying on the ability of the national grid to absorb the energy or the local transformer capacity. The inevitable increase in consumer tariff would also make this option financially viable.

However this option also suffers from the lack of necessary Dollars to cover the essential imports. Some innovative solutions which do not impact on the current balance of payments are needed and are considered possible.

Say no to any more LPG

In the total energy scenario, or shall I say today’s —fmda,ska˜ culture, the LPG queues take much more prominence than the relative percentage of energy. Naturally being so close to the day-to-day needs of cooking energy, the emotions are running high and unfortunately these queues are not so disciplined as in the case of petrol and diesel queues. Fortunately a ready alternative is available and has been addressed in a different article accessible on https://www.bioenergysrilanka.lk/an-opportunity-behind-the-lpg-crisis/. It only requires minimal intervention by the State by promoting the offered solutions as an alternative to staying in long queues without any guarantee of receipt of a cylinder of LPG.

Sri Lanka should be working towards 100% rejection of fossil fuels as early as possible for many reasons and is blessed with adequate indigenous and renewable resources. It is up to the people to take up the challenge rather than waiting for State interventions which will never come if the past performance is any indication.

(The writer is a Past President of the Bio Energy Association and Vice President of the Solar Industries Association. He could be reached via email at [email protected].)