What could be the end of the revolution?

My opinion was that there won’t be a possibility of another bigger uprising of the same scale taking place at very close intervals following a major political uprising, except for sporadic and ad hoc struggles occurring at different places. However, disproving my opinion, a massive uprising several times bigger than the previous one erupted on ​​9 July. 

There was another observation I have made in relation to this context, namely, that a strong attempt to expel the President outside the constitutional framework will undoubtedly aggravate the complex crisis Sri Lanka is facing at the moment, and push the country into the second tier of the abyss in which it is already in, thereby making it extremely difficult to come out of it. The public uprising on 9 July however, does not disprove my second observation. 

The unarmed youth uprising on 9 July can be considered as the third insurrection of JVP style that burst out in Sri Lanka. The first version of it erupted in 1971. It can be described as an insurrection launched mostly with self-made weapons and was suppressed quickly by the security forces. Thereafter, its second version was orchestrated during 1986/89. It can be considered as a much bigger uprising than the first one that erupted in 1971; and it was able to sustain itself for more than two years; a powerful rebellion which caused great destruction to the lives and property, and was crushed mercilessly by the security forces after it had reached a level where it was about to seize power. The third uprising that took place on 9 June 2022 in the form of a peaceful revolt which is several times bigger than the second JVP uprising can be considered as the biggest public uprising that has ever happened in Sri Lanka.

The success of this uprising over the military power of the State truly reflects the extent of the debility or impotence of the State which had been decaying for a long time in the absence of progressive reforms, rather than the supremacy of the people’s power itself. The institutions that were supposed to be neutral in this crisis adopting a policy of being loyal to the protest movement also reflects the extent of degeneration of the State and its institutional system. 

Allowing a person like Gotabaya Rajapaksa who has had indictments against him to contest the presidential election itself shows the extent of degeneration of the State. Again, by the same token, the manner in which he was removed from power also demonstrates the degree of degeneration and venality extant in the present political system in Sri Lanka. 

Some characteristics of the July uprising

The first and the second revolts mentioned above can be considered as purely JVP in essence and ideology. The third, which can be described as a peaceful and very powerful popular uprising cannot be considered as one that has been launched solely by the JVP. Though this Aragalaya remained to a great extent, as a movement launched by a combination of a large number of youth groups which are independent of party politics, the Peratugami Samajavadi Pakshaya (Frontline Socialist Party) was able to seize control of the uprising and claim it as a struggle of their own at the last moment. 

The Peratugami Samajavadi Pakshaya is composed of the members defected from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). It can be considered as a party that was born in the political womb of the JVP and competes with it. There was a competition between these two parties ever since the Peratugami Samajavadi Pakshaya (Frontline Socialist Party) defected from JVP and formed their own party. But, the JVP remained ahead in that race until the uprising in July broke out. But through the July uprising, the Peratugami Samajavadi Party has been able to exhibit political strength and leadership that surpassed that of the JVP. So much so, this situation may lead to conflicts between the two parties. 

The pioneering role played by the Anthar Vishvavidyaleeya Shishya Balamandalaya (Inter-University Students’ Federation) which can be considered as the university student union of the party in preparing and mobilising militant student groups for the uprising seems to have contributed significantly to the enhancement of the strength of the Peratugami Samajavadi Party. Of these two parties, the JVP can be considered as a party that has deviated from the strict Marxist framework, and to a large extent shifted towards adopting a socio-democratic approach. On the contrary, it must be said that the views of the Peratugami Samajavadi Party on the issues of ethnicity, caste and religion are relatively modern and progressive despite the fact that it acts within a strict Marxist framework. 

The aim of the two previous insurrections launched by the JVP was to seize State power through an armed struggle. But the main objective of the July uprising was to oust President Gotabaya. Hence it appears that the Peratugami Samajavadi Party too, was compelled to act in accordance with that agenda. Therefore, they had to work on a policy that allowed them to storm and occupy three major State buildings of symbolic importance related to political power namely the Presidential Palace, the Presidential Secretariat and the Temple Trees rather than usurping the State power. However, Kumar Gunaratnam, the leader of the Peratugami Samajavadi Party declares in a very loud voice that the Parliament should take into account their views, and act accordingly in everything that is done by Parliament. 

Although the uprising on the 9th cannot be regarded as an indication of the extent of the people’s power commanded by the Peratugami Party, it has however proved that it is a significant player that can no longer be ignored in the current game of politics. In appointing a national level political group to find a solution to the crisis Sri Lanka is facing, it will be necessary to devise a constitutional methodology to give an appropriate representation to the Peratugami Party in it though there could be opposition from the JVP for that. In addition, it will be essential that an appropriate representation is given for the other groups that are related to the youth uprising but not related to the Peratugami Socialist Party.

What could be the end?

What could be the results that the “One-day People’s Revolution” will bequeath to the country? It can be said that it has severed and removed the malignant cancer called the Rajapaksa family dynasty which had overwhelmed the entire political body of Sri Lanka. But that alone will not make the country prosper. Amassing wealth in the political sphere in illegal means cannot be considered as a feature limited only to the Rajapaksas. It can be said that the same serious mistake has been committed by all the presidents who came to power under the ‘78 constitution. The Rajapaksas have become prominent in this respect only in terms of the volume of wealth they have earned/robbed in this way. 

The politicians cannot rob the public property alone, without the support and connivance of the high ranking government officials. Not only the political regime but also the bureaucracy is corrupt. The amount of foreign debts that has led to the bankruptcy of the country is $ 50 billion. The amount of destruction caused by the riots and wars that occurred in the country since independence has been calculated as $ 200 billion. It shows that corruption is not the only reason that has contributed to the bankruptcy of the country. 

Had we been able to manage the conflicting issues of ethnicity, caste and religion harmoniously and avoiding violent conflicts, it would certainly have added an additional $ 200 billion to the country’s economy. The number employed in the government sector is so high that there are 1.5 million employees where only 0.7 million are required. The contribution made by certain loss-making public institutions such as the national airline, the Electricity Board and Petroleum Corporation towards the bankruptcy of Sri Lanka is enormous. 

Structural reforms can be considered as the main thing that the country needs at this moment. The State of Sri Lanka, the socio-political system, the education system and the entire economy of the country are in a state of extreme degeneration. Reforms are needed to overcome the state of degeneration which is rampant everywhere and make them clean, efficient and effective. The subject of reforms can be considered as the topic that the political regime and bureaucratic system of Sri Lanka does not seem to understand and also loath to touch. It does not seem that the subject of reforms has received the attention of the youth strugglers either. Nor has it received a new light from them. 

The most important thing that everyone who is interested in the country’s survival should realise is that Sri Lanka is in a terrible abyss at this moment, and if they fail to act wisely and prudently, it is most likely that the country will fall into another abyss that is worse than the one it is already in, and also is not easy to escape from. If we fall into that abyss, we will be compelled to live in the 19th century for about 10 years. At the same time, we must not forget that Sri Lanka is a country which has no judicious and wise leaders. Consequently, the country lacks mature and visionary leaders. 

Whether we live in the 21st century and move forward or go backwards by two centuries will be decided in the next few days. At least, at this critical moment, will the political leaders of the country be able to come to an agreement to work together harmoniously and intelligently without resorting to greed for power, selfishness and factionalism and rescue the country from the present morass?