Vicissitudes: Rationality and its sceptics

What we don’t know about the vaccines is remarkable

We often hear the phrase, ‘the fog of war.’ But the ‘fog of COVID’ goes much farther in provoking befuddlement. 

It’s spreading, unprecedented numbers of cases, mutants, variants…

First, the raw numbers psychological scam. We have been told by the Army Commander that much of the recent apparent ‘case surge’ owes to two factories. So, it is not a widespread pattern, it is congregated, and we trust isolated. Secondly, there were a number of PCR machines down, and so we are getting ‘backed up’ cases reported now, that were from the past, rather than these all being fresh daily infections. 

Hoping realisation benefits from repetition, a ‘positive’ PCR test is not a ‘case.’ Once more, WHO has now also clarified this. Every lab should be asked to declare their false positive ratio, and absolutely every test should indicate the (Ct) Cycle Threshold (degree of amplification) used, verifying that it was 30 or below. If so, the test is far more likely tracking viral load. Above that, it becomes more and more uncertain and downright spurious. If there has been a national mandate for a Cycle Threshold standard in line with international recommendations and WHO updated inputs, I’ve missed it. 

Also, not sure why we want to ramp up expensive PCR tests fruitlessly, as ‘asymptomatic spread’ is showing itself to be less and less likely, acknowledged as well by the different quarantine strictures we are now implementing and evolving towards on that basis.

So, first we do not know the accuracy of these extravagant expenditures we are punitively and perhaps pointlessly imposing on ourselves. The PCR test’s outright efficacy is currently being litigated in parts of Europe, and we cannot hold our national psyche hostage to it here. Nor should we, in a time of economic crisis, indulge this alternative ‘cottage industry’ that will want to keep rolling these tests out in perpetuity. 

Despite all the rubbish to the contrary, I will say it again, Rapid Antigen tests will suffice, backstopped by PCR tests when needed. The pushback is that these are not as ‘sensitive’ and in some jurisdictions (UK), ‘only identified 60% of those…’ The end of the last sentence is 60% of those identified by the PCR tests! How is that a critique? Rapid Antigen tests test for current contagiousness, PCR tests also pick-up older infections, viral fragments and debris. So, the ‘lesser sensitivity’ is precisely what we want! They are close to 99% accurate in picking up the pre-symptomatic and currently contagious, and since they are cheap, can be done in 15 minutes, having them done several times is very feasible. 

And where there has been clear exposure or suspicious symptoms, then a PCR test with proper Ct values can be used to verify. There is no sane, factual, data-based reason, for this not to be the primary regimen, except the now globally institutionalised vested interests of a multi-billion-dollar PCR testing industry. Anyone who thinks that has no impact, will also naively believe a military industrial complex has no influence on the prevalence of conflicts, or the fact that wars long forgotten are still being somehow waged (Afghanistan, Syria, plans to depose Venezuelan leaders and more).

In a nutshell: Rapid Antigen tests work, as summarised by Nature Magazine, clarifying the distinction, by detecting specific proteins, collectively named ‘antigens’ on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 particles. No amplification of the sample occurs (unlike PCR), so they detect the virus only when it reaches a high level in a person’s body, ‘with perhaps hundreds of thousands or millions of viral copies per millilitre of sample.’ The virus reaches these levels, Harvard University tells us, around the time symptoms start, when people are at their most contagious. This is one of the methods India used to tackle their summer surge, in terms of being able to prioritise where attention went.

Next, our death certificates are a confusing gruel, shovelling in diabetic deaths, heart attacks, blood poisoning, liver disease and so much more. The mere presence of a ‘positive PCR test’ with no indication even that symptoms were present, seems enough to anoint the tragic death as a ‘COVID death.’ This is not in synch with WHO guidelines, much less common sense, much less medical practice in filling out death certificates historically up to 2020. A ‘canonical’ COVID death certificate, is COVID to pneumonia to acute respiratory distress to death. 

When in the UK, death certificates were combed in December to identify how many ‘COVID deaths’ had no other comorbidity, that number despite the now 100,000 deaths being stipulated there from the virus, were only 344! Let’s say below 500 if we wish to! Italy itself after their horrifying 2020 spring first wave experience, reported, through their head of public health, that only 12% of those ‘COVID deaths’ had no other serious comorbidities among this very aged population. And today in Lanka, we still have less than 400 ascribed deaths in a year versus roughly 144,000 deaths per annum of various causes, and as earlier reported, just from March 2020 to December 2020, 12,000 auto accident deaths!

So, hard to fathom where this ‘crisis’ is. 

As for mutants and variants, UK numbers continue to fall, so this ‘more transmissible’ variant seems not to be doing much, ditto US numbers fall and this variant has allegedly been located there. Neither Brazil nor South Africa are experiencing untoward surges, but we are to be panicked when these strains are exported, as if they only cause mortality mischief in large numbers outside their own shores? Nor is it clear these have actually been ‘exported’ as opposed to the virus showing a similar mutation pattern. But, with no excess mortality in Lanka, or indeed South Asia, or indeed virtually any part of Asia, it is irrational to be cowering, unless our faculties are so addled and our ‘COVID porn’ appetite so pronounced, that we cannot rein in our fascination with every outlier development, even if largely irrelevant on today’s known facts. 

US death rate and double masking

Here is another medley of cocktail party confusion. You can never get very far pointing out how essentially ‘ordinary’ C-19 is as a highly contagious, mildly lethal (virtually not at all for those below 65 without pre-existing conditions), without someone brandishing the US 400,000 deaths as the ultimate rebuttal, a reason for all to scamper and withdraw from life as we know it. 

There are several things wrong with this. As with the UK numbers, when you adjust for age and population, the US last showed similar excess deaths in 2005 we are told by statisticians, some say 2003, but certainly it wasn’t 50 years back, much less a century or more. And if there were global lockdowns in either of those years, I missed them. 

Secondly, the CDC indicates more than half of the 400,000 figure comes from nursing homes and care facilities, where ill and healthy were tragically combined in a superspreader environment. And of that even, applying a more stringent assessment of cause of death, the CDC reports about 100,000 were ‘COVID related’ but not ‘from COVID’ and could include other illnesses not treated, isolation, depression, or other collateral impacts from all other healthcare focus being effectively suspended. Also, bad flu seasons (and the last few years were extremely mild), can certainly register 100,000 deaths, and whether 100,000 is a ‘baton pass’ from flu to the more aggressive coronavirus, or is the flu, embedded in C-19 statistics, the overall number begins to look less terrifying, especially when fatuous comorbidities like gunshot wounds, poisoning, car accidents and more, we realise are periodically dialled in (numerous US States have therefore raised the alarm about how death certificates are being registered). 

‘Double masking.’ First, simple rationality on masking. If masking and lockdowns worked, New York and California should be faring far better than Florida, Georgia and South Dakota, instead of having the worst COVID statistics in the world virtually. And this is with almost universal mask mandates, something the other States have not had – on the contrary. By this criterion, Sweden should not have better overall stats than the UK, Spain and Italy, and be on par with France, in terms of deaths per million, despite the nursing home debacle. 

And Sweden has largely had open schools, an open society, and a far more functioning economy. Despite an attempt by the monarchy and others to impose restrictions, they were so ‘light’ that in the UK it would be experienced as outright liberation by comparison. Add Belarus into the mix and quite a bit of South Asia. It either ‘works’ or it doesn’t. And so, it really doesn’t. But in close quarters, given possibility of larger particles, fine. But in open spaces, with ample distancing, absurd. 

A reminder re lethality, for WHO, Stanford researcher John Ioannidis presented a peer reviewed paper showing an overall Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for the virus of .05%. Persons 60 or older, 1.71%. These results come from looking at those infected not just those with ‘positive PCR tests’, by taking populations and checking people for antibodies, among other serological markers. 

Next, CDC says 6 feet of ‘distance,’ Europeans say 1 meter (3 feet), and WHO concurs re 1 meter. China, France, Denmark and Hong Kong opted for 1.5 meters. 

Given the size of aerosols and particles by which C-19 is transmitted, overwhelming evidence (University of Oxford Center for Evidence Based Medicine, CDC itself in May published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Diseases Sydney, WHO originally and then changing with no explanation or research provided, and many more) tells us cloth masks are futile, surgical ones largely too. And after cloth masks become moist, usually after 20 minutes, they anyway stop being effective, and virtually all droplets pass through (University of Sydney research). In Asia, you would have to change them every 15 minutes. 

Respirators can work, cloth and surgical masks are largely a psychological placebo (they are helpless against particles that are 120 nanometres in size). And in virtually every country where such mandates went into place, cases surged. And where they were never really relaxed, the virus kept returning for encores, regardless. 

The latest study on asymptomatic spread (Nature Communications, November 2020, with 10 million eligible persons studied), found not even one instance of an actual asymptomatic case (when re-tested and serological study done). So universal masking, much less ‘double masking’ is really absurd.

You can tell this is ‘theology’, because when asked why in the US ‘masking’ was not working, the answer was the height of insanity, “We need more of them, double up!” They must be working, but we need even less oxygen! The only such ‘study’ is an extrapolation in which truly ‘dummies’ and no humans were involved! There is also a ‘marine recruit CHARM NEJM study’ whereby recruits wore double layered masks and there was still spread, in the most heavily monitored for compliance environment imaginable. How is all this preferable to admitting it’s a virus, and it will do what viruses do, and we have to count on our immune systems to do what they do, given the far from terrifying IFR?

Wearing a mask, much less two, simulates COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, similar to what smokers get). Even Fauci says ‘there is no data’ to suggest double masking works, having first “suggested” that was the way to go. But Fauci’s guidance rarely fails to show what a master contortionist he is.

The ‘dummies’ study shows masks knotted to make any sane person cringe, includes the following gem: ‘…double masking might impede breathing or obstruct peripheral vision for some wearers, and knotting and tucking can change the shape of the mask such that it no longer covers fully both the nose and the mouth of persons with larger faces.’ Surgery next to get those damned faces to fit?

The vaccine situation

What we don’t know about the vaccines is remarkable. A few things to give us pause before any ‘mass vaccination’ is undertaken here: Two thirds of the tiny British enclave of Gibraltar have been vaccinated, from 9 January onwards. Today, Gibraltar has the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world. The UK, US, Germany, Israel, Canada and Norway report alarming number of deaths of elderly people or care home deaths or reinfections, according to the UK Medical Freedom Alliance which has written to the UK authorities asking for an urgent review. 

Israel had the worst extended C-19 outbreak despite almost 70% of the population being vaccinated, and then seeing adverse effects, people stopped coming forth. While numbers are falling, it took longer for the plateau than either of the last two surges in Israel, and numbers plummeted faster in countries with far less vaccinations, including the US and UK. The Israeli Supreme Helsinki Commission is submitting an opinion to the Health Ministry stating that the vaccine campaign amounts to clinical research via human trials, and if so, by implication, the public in many countries are being used for a vaccine trial without their knowledge or informed consent.

UK and Ireland showed a striking uptick in deaths after a period of relative stability, coinciding with vaccinations, while Sweden which had not begun its vaccinations, saw a striking decline around the same time. UAE with large numbers of vaccinations saw a significant surge in cases and deaths, again contrasted with Jordan, not yet vaccinating, seeing a flat line. 

And in the US, where the FDA is having a ‘hard time’ (worrying!) monitoring mRNA vaccine side effects, we keep getting reports, ranging from a 37-year-old doctor in Memphis dying from an immune response to the vaccine, to schools in Ohio and NY closing after staff side effects from vaccination, to a 78-year-old woman dying after receiving the vaccine reported on NBC, all the reporting says, ‘no connection.’ 

As there is no mortality-based panic here in Sri Lanka, we should insist, as India did with Pfizer (which has pulled out of there in response) on local trials or at least regional trials.

Who’s the sceptic?

In my last article, I challenged ‘magical thinking’. Let me also here suggest that ‘rationalists’ are not the ‘sceptics’ who must answer and justify their data points to the ‘Covidians.’ It is the latter, who in repeated spasms of anti-rationality, believe we can ‘lock down’ the planet and impose our will on the entire economic, social, medical, emotional ecosystem.

They are the ones curiously ‘sceptical’ of all public health wisdom up to 2020 (though that has a far better track record in getting us past real menaces despite arguably less collective medical savvy, so society and people and life expectancy continued to move forward, rather than the disastrous overall non-results of 2020).

They keep pounding the pulpit about lockdowns and masking, with neither results nor research to back them, advocating an illogical break with that established public health wisdom by which we navigated rather successfully overall for lo these many decades, if not centuries. 

They cluelessly opine that indefinite economic shutdown and enforced bankruptcy (as long as you have a caste who does all your delivery, runs society for your insulated comfort, and can be ‘sacrificed’ on the very altar we claim would expunge so many of us) is somehow acceptable for a middling influenza strain that even with souped up death certificates amounted to no more than roughly 3% of global mortality in 2020.

Oh, and your cancer not screened, your heart condition not checked, your depression left unsupported, your life prospects being destroyed as interaction and education are pulled away, these ‘life sceptics’ assert none of that matters against a coronavirus with a 99% recovery rate for the below 60 (absent serious comorbidities). And how do they assert that? They just do!

And their outright cynicism towards rational sense, says poverty for millions, starvation, education destruction, surge of once controlled illnesses, widescale destruction of businesses without any means for us to provide for alternate subsistence, people stripped of liberties, and removed from families, can all be justified, will somehow be ‘cured’, will leave no indelible scars… as long as this one virus is brought to heel (defined by what metric we don’t know).

No one should spend 30 seconds ‘persuading’ these ‘humanity sceptics’ these ‘viral idolaters’ who want us to eke out a few more locked up years beyond life expectancy, who can’t even ‘spell’ QALY (quality adjusted life years) of anything. No one owes them a persuasive statistic. You don’t shut down the world over unproven models, over a pathogen whose age and population adjusted impact on excess deaths is nil to unremarkable, and then say you must be assuaged and persuaded.

These folks are desperate. Though they currently have the temporal power, and we are all rattling the cages of our confinement, they know absent more unrelenting media porn, more rationality denial, surges of ‘magical thinking’, this will blow up. And the sheer devastation of what they and their ‘reality scepticism’ has wrought will not bear thinking about.

When you are called a ‘COVID denier’, simply smile and say:

“I know there’s a virus, a serious one, thank you. You though are a humanity denier, by thinking you can control it, or everyone’s lives, out of your terror of facing a 1%-3% chance of death, when you take your life in your hands far more by crossing the street, or having high dosages of sugar or junk food, or breathing deeply in Mumbai or Beijing, or treating yourself to skyrocketing blood pressure by not learning to control your emotions.”

And at least then you’re not ‘denying’ that children need education, or that people have a right to work and engage and the right to assess their own risks. If you’re scared, stay home! What is patently ‘irrational’ is trying to enforce deranged fears of COVID over our passion for not only being alive, but actually living.