The struggle to overcome the impending food crisis

The agriculture that was ‘destroyed in seconds’ cannot be revived in one season

The situation is alarming. The Sri Lankan economy has contracted by 1.6% and the agriculture sector by 6.8% during the first quarter of 2022. In fact, the agriculture sector was growing at +6.4% during the first quarter of 2021. The most recent press release by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) has stated that the lack of chemical fertilisers during the first quarter of 2022 had a direct and major impact on agricultural activities resulting in a significant decline in crop cultivation. This is the largest contraction in agricultural economic activities recorded for the first quarter, since 2015. 

The message is clear. Facts presented by the Government, at last, have over-ridden the myths propagated. The results poignantly illustrate the severity of the damage to the agricultural economy of Sri Lanka in less than one year of imposing an unfortunate, hasty decision. The previous article by the author that appeared in the Daily FT on 23 March 2022, quantified the crop losses in the past Maha season (2021/2022) and highly-likely losses in the present Yala (2022) season due to the irrational decisions made (https://www.ft.lk/columns/The-manmade-agriculture-disaster-in-Sri-Lanka/4-732388).

Many lessons have been learned from just one unfortunate decision made in April 2021 by few human beings, but at a massive cost to the whole nation. Resulting from this, the scientific prediction done previously of a definite rice shortage from October 2022 is not only a warning, but also an invitation to take urgent and necessary steps to avoid such a situation. We need immediate actions to mitigate or deal with this man-made crisis. 

Since April 2021, many scientists and academia have predicted that about 800,000 to 1 million Mt of rice would be imported to Sri Lanka in 2022 to fill the gap in production and requirement. This is what food shortage is all about. Politicians and their unwise advisers often laughed at those predictions, which were purely based on scientific analysis. However, unfortunately, it did not take long for such evidence-based predictions to become a reality. By the first six months of 2022, Sri Lanka had imported about 365,000 Mt of rice, and need about 400,000 Mt more to meet the rice requirement during the last two months of the year. Since only 4% of the world’s rice production is available in the market, at a time where a global food crisis is brewing, the rice import to Sri Lanka should be well-planned. 

Essential food items, including rice, worth $ 180 million have already been imported under the Indian credit line. There is a plan to further import food items worth $ 70 million through the same facility. In addition, the decision to import 10 essential food items, including rice, through an open account system from 1 July. The Ministry responsible for trade and food security recently announced its plans to import about 75,000-100,000 Mt of rice monthly during this year to overcome the crisis. All these actions will help Sri Lanka to overcome the rice shortage that was to occur from October this year to a significant extent. This is crisis management. We should give priority to securing the required foreign exchange for such imports. However, we also need to keep in mind and plan to meet the rice requirements during the first quarter of next year (2023).

The Government of Sri Lanka has secured $ 55 million to import 65,000 Mt of urea fertiliser from Oman, through the Indian credit line. The first stock of 40,000 Mt is likely to reach Sri Lanka before 10 July. The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has even cancelled the leave of all staff officers in institutes under its purview from 6 to 15 July to ensure this fertiliser consignment would reach the farmers quickly. About 2,000 Lorries have been reserved by the MOA to transport this material to 566 Agrarian Service Centres across the country. How the farmers could acquire this fertiliser thereafter is not clear amidst the current fuel shortage that the country experiences. However, the commitment of the Government is clear. In addition, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also approved the import of 18,000 Mt of urea during the current Yala season. 

It seems late to provide the nitrogen fertiliser as the rice crop has grown mature and paddy harvesting has even started in some parts of the country. We could expect a yield increment if at least one dose of urea is provided to the paddy plant even at later growth stages, similar to the impact of saline given to a patient. This effort is probably to keep the morale of the farming community high rather than expecting a massive yield increment. However, it is a welcome move, and no doubt that they can reduce the severity of the food crisis to some extent. 

When the input supply is limited, prioritisation of crops becomes a must in terms of their use. A few months ago, the scientists and academia strongly recommended making paddy (main food crop), maize (main feed crop) and tea (main export crop) as prioritised crops in such scenarios. This is not to neglect all other crop sectors in terms of input supply. Furthermore, scientists and academia have highlighted the urgent need to provide adequate fuel to support the distribution of rice and other food products throughout the entire food system.

It is important to note that the MOA has prioritised the crops to provide fertiliser and fuel service stations have been designated to provide the requirement of the farming community. However, the fuel supply requires effective mechanisms to be implemented without delay. Such activities will push the barrier of food crisis further away. This is our hope and the overall objective of such exercises.

From 24 June 2022, the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA) of Sri Lanka has issued an Extraordinary Gazette Notification prohibiting the sale or use of domestic or imported rice or paddy for animal feed production. This will help bridge the gap between rice production and the country’s requirement. However, maize is the essential energy source in animal feed (mainly poultry feed). Broken rice was often used as a substitute for maize in preparing the animal feed. As stated previously, the maize production was also severely affected during the last cultivating season. In the production of formulated animal feed, maize is used up to 60% of its weight as an energy source. 

Considering the shortage, the Government has allowed the importation of 125,000 Mt of maize in the first quarter of 2022. However, only 20,000 Mt have been imported to date due to foreign exchange and other related issues. However, the soybean meal, which is the main protein source in animal feed, is still been imported due to the forward agreements signed by the large feed mills in Sri Lanka with the foreign suppliers. Overall, the animal feed industry is badly affected, and hence the poultry industry. The continuous increase in the price of chicken meat and eggs in the Sri Lankan market is a good reflection of this. 

No doubt that we must safeguard rice production to provide human food requirements. However, close attention should be paid to the continuous supply of maize, the main animal feed to provide the much-needed protein requirement of the Sri Lankans. Absence of maize in required quantities also led to the closure of the State-owned ‘Thriposha’ factory. Thriposha is a nutritional supplement given free of charge to expecting mothers and infants in Sri Lanka. These are the chain reactions of one irrational decision.

The Government has requested the general public to cultivate every possible cultivable land to help overcome the food crisis. This is an important request. This message should be realised as a request to cultivate land that should have been cultivated but not done yet. This does not mean the clearance of natural ecosystems such as forests for cultivation. Recently, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to release some of the reservation lands of the Department of Railways for farming for one year. I believe that activity will be implemented under close supervision. 

The food production drive should not disrupt the food supply chain. A surplus of agricultural produce within one or two seasons would lead to a market collapse affecting the commercial farmers. Hence, such programs should be implemented with a good understanding of the entire food system. Comprehending this principle is even more important in home gardening. Growing plants in limited spaces in the home gardens or apartments should focus on improving the nutritional value of the food plate rather than creating market gluts in production and not to replace the role play of different value chain actors.

The urban population will feel the first impact of a food crisis. This is mainly because of the breakdown of the urban-rural linkages in the food system. In such a situation, the farming community will always store the food requirement of its residents from their production. The amount of food coming to the market will thus be limited. However, we cannot blame farmers for this reaction to the upcoming issues. The uncertainty in the future agricultural production process, the possibility of crop failure in this year’s Yala season, etc., would provide farmers with the impetus for such decisions. 

However, the main issue is the creation of artificial food shortage in the market due to food hoarding by some supply chain actors and the consumers. This practice should be stopped, as it would raise food prices, making them unaffordable to many. Therefore, there is a need to educate the consumers and market players to keep away from food hoarding. 

Furthermore, it is high time to take a closer look at the amount of food we throw away, especially from the food plate. We should reduce food waste as much as possible, especially during a food crisis. According to Dr. Anuruddha Karunaratne of the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, the amount of food waste from the household food plate is about 10% on average. The wastage is 15-30% in restaurants and hotels and can increase to around 50% in buffet-style catering at events. Food waste in major hotels is often used as animal feed in farms, but such use is minimal in households. Therefore, reducing or preventing food waste is an immediate action that would benefit the country enormously. This will reduce the pressure on the food supply and on finding foreign exchange for food imports at such a difficult time.

Making the next Maha season a huge success in food production is a major task to be achieved. This would help regain the food security status that the country has lost during the past few months. The agriculture that was ‘destroyed in seconds’ cannot be revived in one season. Making every effort to secure the seed paddy requirement (80,000 Mt) of the next Maha season from the output of this Yala season, acquiring finances from the World Bank ($ 110 million) to procure 150,000 Mt of Urea and the Asian Development Bank ($ 40 million) to procure 36,000 Mt of Muriate of Potash for the next Maha season are some commendable initiatives by the MOA, Department of Agriculture and other line agencies on the road to revive agriculture in Sri Lanka. Still more to be done. Finally, we now see that the policymakers are getting ready to face the reality, understanding the science behind food production, and have left aside their whims, fancies and over-reliance on illusions. 

Agriculture in Sri Lanka does not end with the completion of the next season (Maha of 2022/2023). It will continue soon after harvest and with another Yala season in 2023. Many institutions, including the Faculties of Agriculture of State universities, have lined up to strengthen the operational mechanism of the government institutions, private sector and farming community to develop the agriculture sector. The policymakers should ensure that there are no unnecessary political interventions but facilitate the operations of mandated institutions through responsible and accountable decision-making on a scientific basis. None of us want to experience a food shortage even beyond October 2022. Enough being slaves to emotions. Any action that threatens national level food security should never be tolerated further.

(The writer is attached to the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya.)