The emptiness of independence, the weight of dependence

Anti-Money Laundering Office in Bangkok, Thailand

The guns may boom in salute… The flag may be hoisted with full honours … We may stand in full attention singing the national anthem with gusto … words may flow extolling the heroes and the leaders that led the state and also led us to this state in the last 75 years. The Pearl of the Indian Ocean is celebrating its 75th year of independence and perhaps an allocation to carry out that task is not an issue even though one may have had to dig quite deep into a pocket – you only get such opportunities just once!

Coffers have been able to cough up the requirement as it is important that the show must go on and we understand celebrations in only one way and that is by doing the same things that we did before and in the same way – anyone reminded of what Einstein said in this regard? It is perhaps this lack of variation, the sheer inability to understand what needs to be done that characterised this nation as it meandered its way through time upon the British leaving the shores. The infamous divide and rule were not dropped but perhaps bit more perfected and practiced. However, in some areas, we did just right though the foundations for such successes were laid out during the colonial times by some persistent nationals.

For independence, we did not have to shed any blood and there was hardly any toiling. We even appear to have missed the date shifting to 4 February instead of 3 February as it was intended according to Ivor Jennings. There were times when Colombo was calling and people listening and Colombo plans leading to development elsewhere. Radio Ceylon was a station to tune into even by those across the Palk Strait. After the independence, we appear to have spent time mostly engaged in politics and elections and we even prided that we demonstrate democracy in action by having elections at will and even ahead of time.

The sad picture is when we see the blotches on history with repeated conflicts and conflicts did start early, after the independence. Connected to each of these conflicts was the exodus of talent. It is indeed sad to see how decisions have led to these scenarios and the agony and damage those events have stamped on the land and national psyche. As we celebrate the 75th year of independence another brain drain is in full swing and this looks like the mother of all such brain drains. Yet there is something in this isle of Serendib. To me, that is something that gives me hope and keeps me in place.

I know ‘Hope’ is a wonderful powerful aspect. Where there is hope there is life! Again, if you add a purpose to your life there is so much you can do. In Sri Lanka, an issue had been my purpose and my hope had never meant much. We have failed to get the best from our people but have celebrated quite well when someone excels outside.

The 75th year is characterised by an economic haemorrhage and a deep crisis that is affecting all. The answer appears to be collecting something from everyone and bridging the gap. On another side we expect debt – the weight of the national debt is significant and there is no sane explanation on how this was built up into this state – to be spread over a manageable period allowing us to go for more debt. With $ 87 billion debt at the end of 2022 an individual calculation can cause goose bumps. Brundtland would despair over such tactics. Sounds so simple to those who can yield only the spreadsheets.

Sadly, they appear not to understand other possible scenarios. Scenario planning was never a strong point of our decision makers as we jump to conclusions and implement decisions ready to roll them back almost immediately and we have taken some decisions which are global first though never the best! In retrospect easy to criticise yet that is the very reason to ask for scenario planning.

The present plight is critical and had placed the nation in the intensive care unit! Some long-term decisions of ours had propelled the state to a strong position in development indicators. Education and health systems take pride in showcasing their results though today arresting decline is a priority. Lots of subsidies have brought in these results yet over the years we have not contemplated and understood that as time passes the same manner in which we realised these impressive performances just cannot be maintained.

Over time the main income that kept the country going ended up being the foreign remittances from hard labour. There was no other single income stream that could rival this value. This revenue stream we cannot be proud of at all though many worked hard to mainstream this mode of income seeing the monetary value. A significant number of voiceless kept the system afloat bridging deficits and allowing the show to go on, but a few more critical decisions subsequently became the last straw that broke the back of the economy.

There is the statement that reducing taxes in 2019 paved the way to the state becoming bankrupt as the required percentages of tax revenue dried up. Sri Lanka with 22 million is having 300,000 active taxpayers and nobody would claim that this is a nation that is diligent in this responsibility. One wonders where are the KPIs for those who are entrusted with the task of the collection as one freely observes high-end professionals not worried over any receipts and thereby any tax obligation. Now waking up to the issue and suddenly increasing the percentages sparing perhaps only the Pettah market natamis, appears to kill the system.

A visible and supported anti-money laundering office as you see in Bangkok definitely would raise the society’s faith on intent. The restoration of some faith may mean business bringing their USDs parked overseas also an area where we hear contrarian views. A simple calculation would indicate the potential possible rather than going the current way of upsetting all and sundry.

The private sector has indicated the self-destructive tax cuts made earlier were never requested. Yet there are situations where tax concessions are given with the idea that the gain would be made use of to build productive capital. If the gains were channelled into such investments, then there would not be such a loss but supporting accelerated growth, what the nation wanted. However, in that window of reduced tax, such forward looking investments did not take place. Only consumptive practices went up. What we witness today is the absolute inability to produce anything or process to realise value addition. The basics are all missing.

It is apparent when you see the issue of school uniforms when yarn has to come and the purchase witnessing intergovernmental discussions to ensure realisation. Even though we can please the well-to-do in North America over their intimate needs we just cannot get trouser material to schoolchildren. Then with textbooks becoming scarce due to lack of paper, another country has to get engaged in the discussion on the provision of paper to print books. As per the paper, we have no production. As per textiles, we have no backward integration. Then when you have a cash crunch you have no solution as your existence depends totally on the outside.

Hence when you see discussions from one load of fuel to another and planning shipments on a cash-before-delivery basis, every day, one can only witness emptiness concerning capability. The singular missing element has been the lack of production capital in our system and when there was a knowledge transition taking place in economies there was no appreciation of the knowledge capital as well. It would be nice to do a meta-analysis on the manifestoes of the post-independence period. The gap analysis of words and deeds would be a story that cannot be told with the head held high. There is no case of government and opposition as all of them together were speaking the same narrative and subscribing with the same action in different times.

It is interesting to think like JFK if we also translated our words to deeds and national missions, we would today be able to bring paddy from the moon as we would have mobilised the sciences to do that. The emptiness of the moment is quite worrying and this is resulting in parents stating that they do not see any future for their children here. Yet all may not be lost … there still may be something to give meaning to our lives here. What is heartening is still when you speak to some of the expat business leaders and they for some reason imagine excellent potential for Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is still not down and out there is real possibility provided few concrete actions are taken at this late hour. Now, this would still be an impossible dream if one continues to pursue activities that are consumption-oriented and also while entertaining that elephant in the room – corruption.

Hope as the guns boom in salute and while we all sing Oba wey Ape Vidya the responsibility would be internalised and there would be an enlightened leadership that understands Vidya well! For 75 long years there was no real science and technology in our strategies and this type comment may never be told by IMF either. Coming to our senses by all concerned is an imperative. If the grandeur of the celebrations can trigger that change in some way then and only then the investment would not be in vain.