The Gotabaya ‘chase study’

His days are almost over. Gota may very well go home. He has to

•  Sequel to – The Gotabaya case study

It was on 26 November 2019 the writer penned his analysis in this paper on President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s massive election win from a marketing and management perspective under the title ‘The Gotabaya case study’. It was a critical analysis and comparative commentary on the election strategies of SJB candidate Sajith Premadasa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Highlighting how Rajapaksa managed to win the hearts and minds of people and winning the election with a huge 6.9 million votes. Yes, the writer was one of the voters.

It did not occur or seem that in less than two years a sequel would have to be written about the utter and dismal failure of the President and his Government analysing the causes for the public outcry ‘#Gotagohome@2022’ asking for his resignation which may very well take place in the near future. The past one month and the last few days in particular we have seen democracy at its best and worst, where people use their right to protest and choose and the Government decides first to ignore and then to hit back. The resulting mayhem, blood bath and destruction is painful to say the least. Let’s hope its history and history will be a good lesson to the future governments and peoples’ representatives and servants of this country.

Attempt here is to analyse Gota’s failure to deliver from a management and leadership approach. The man who was thought to be a doer, a strategist and a hard task master failed miserably. Why?

The election was won, as analysed in the 26 November 2019 article through a campaign with – clear spelt out vision/road map, focus, effective mass communication, leveraging on past wins, team work and displayed credibility of the candidate not necessarily the whole camp. A huge public trust element was created. The failure and the call to chase out resulted from an exact opposite approach in governance.

Vision sans action

The vision for the country spelt out by GR in his campaign under the theme ‘Vistas of prosperity and splendour’ had the following key policies:

An efficient country free from corruption

A safe and a secure country for all

A productive citizen and a happy family

People-centric economy

A technology based society

New approach in national spatial system

Sustainable environmental policy

A righteous disciplined and law-abiding society

Dialogue with the village

A friendly foreign policy

Even a cursory look at the above policies and the state of the nation today speaks volumes of ineffectiveness and failure. The vision remains a vision and limited to publications and websites whereas the country is in doldrums. Take the key issues. Corruption, productive citizens, safe and secure country, people-centric economy and sustainable environment. Economy is at the lowest possible ebb today with meagre foreign reserves or no reserves. The exchange rates have skyrocketed making it impossible to import essential goods and services to the country let alone debt servicing. The public are at the receiving end without fuel, electricity, and gas. Day-to-day living is impossible with escalating cost of living. 

The President and his Government did not roll out a feasible and focused action plan to ensure that we manage priorities, preserve the little left foreign reserves, control the exchange rate and plan the import of essentials. Let alone a people-centric economy they were not able to at least work towards a country-friendly economic model. Allegations of corruption are rampant with key cabinet ministers to the local Government chiefs under suspicion and nothing was done to conduct an audit on parliamentarians and public servants. 

A safe and secure country is not a country which is safe and secure from war, terrorism, riots or ethnic disharmony only as projected. A safe and secure country is one where people have a sense of economic and social security, confidence in the governance and the peace of mind to plan their future and the welfare of their families. Nothing there apart from empty rhetoric. Credit goes for curtailing to a great extent the spread of COVID beyond manageable means. But that was the only “win”. Post-COVID recovery strategies were not developed and here we are today. No strategies were in place to propagate renewable energy as opposed to coal and thermal power which has adverse effects on the environment. The list goes on… attractive vision statements remain as statements without action.

Action sans strategy

Then there was some action! But without strategy. Stopping the import of chemical fertiliser without a proper phased out plan! The start of GR’s end could be this ill-conceived initiative. Even developed countries which embraced organic fertiliser did it over time in a sustainable phased out manner. Taking wrong advice GR applied immediate breaks ruining our agricultural output, destroying the livelihoods of farmers, and creating a food shortage as well. Next the financial debacle. The rupee was forcefully controlled against market demand supply dynamics which governs the exchange rate prompting people to seek secondary methods of transacting outside the banking system. This drained the foreign reserves plus severely retarded the inflow. 

Then suddenly, the rupee was allowed to float in a starved market and at this moment changed at Rs. 380 at the banks! Taxes were drastically reduced to win people’s hearts and minds depriving the coffers of a sizable Government revenue. Government revenue of which the tax revenue was in the range of 15 to 12% over the years was brought to about 8%. We are experiencing the painful results today. Public money was utilised for projects which had no priority such as reconstructing and upgrading social clubs. No investment recovery plans, no focus, no end in mind.

Destructive communication and excuses

The communication which hit home during the election campaign changed not for the better but for the worse. GR could not establish dynamic connectivity with the people. His ‘addresses’ to the nation were full of excuses, dwelling on the past and lacked tangible content and credibility. No doubt drafted by outsiders the communication was full of excuses such as – COVID, past governments’ mistakes, economic woes, etc. People elected a leader and perceived ‘doer’ not to listen to excuses but expecting action to overcome obstacles. GR even had the audacity to harp on winning the war against terrorism to suggest that he’s a man of action. A war he won with the support of many but now it lacks appeal as an excuse for inaction. 

The Easter attack debacle is another let down of the people. The Government promised speedy action to bring the perpetrators to light and take action. Instead it is now limited to a report with slow or no action on it. Painful. Another occasion comes to mind where at a ‘chat with the villages’ an unemployed young English teacher appealed to him to facilitate jobs for them, English teaching being of national importance. Instead of listening attentively he in a sarcastic manner tested the girl’s fluency in English! She came out a winner speaking very well, much better than his brother Basil of ‘Kaputa’ fame. Pathetic. May be the campaign was fully scripted and rehearsed. May be branded well. The communication today is not credible at all. Further the man who makes excuses seldom makes anything else.

Bad teaming and family bandism

It is said that a leader is as good as his or her team. GR failed miserably in the selection of his team. Let’s take the family first. Brother Mahinda’s premiership was expected, and a given. However, he should have kept elder brothers Chamal and Basil totally away. Let us not dwell on Chamal. But Basil is another kettle of wish all together. To bring him as a dual citizen the 20th Amendment was introduced amongst other powers given through the amendment. Basil the schemer and wheeler dealer was at it from the word go. He ruined this country’s financial position together with unprofessional lackey Nivard Cabraal. His influence reached into every nook and corner of the Government transcending the ethic of governance and public sector autonomy. 

Then comes young Namal, the Rajapaksa family’s perceived saviour in the future. He should have not been given a Cabinet portfolio at all. Too many Rajapaksas in the cabinet. People wanted GR to lead without family baggage and influence, but he failed to do so. The MR camp was pulling in the opposite direction, retarding and blocking GR’s actions. He should have overcome them but alas he too showed that blood is thicker than water when it comes to Rajapaksas. 

The inclusion of uneducated thugs such as Johnston, Rohitha Abey in the Cabinet and holding economically critical portfolios was a total let down of the people’s confidence. A word must be said about appointing senior military personnel to head Government institutions. They were just appointed – not oriented, not demilitarised to work in harmony with the bureaucracy and workforce. Most failed to deliver as they could not achieve synergy. No fault of theirs technically. The paradigm shift from command mentality to management mentality was not facilitated. 

Of course, there is another allegation that GR ignored and/or did not pay heed to subject professionals and the herd of advisors who were appointed. He is alleged to have relied on a handful of close cohorts from industry and personal friends for critical decision-making. The much spoken of ‘Viyathmaga’ professionals were bypassed and even most of the chosen few gave up due to undue political interference when heading respective institutions. Thus GR and his team proved to be a total failure.

Political immaturity and retarded self-confidence 

One wonders why all this happened. Or allowed to happen. What happened to the hard task master? What happened to the arrogant my way or no way results driven man? People voted for that man. People wanted a no-nonsense man to get this country out of the abyss it is in. People hoped for a local ‘Lee Kuan Yew’ to rebuild Sri Lanka. Instead we got a weak personality who was so dependent on others, whose decisions could be reversed with family pressure and someone who abandoned self-confidence and embraced soothsayers, exorcism and relied on others to guide him. 

Moreover, GR was absolutely politically immature. Yes he did not have political experience; yet he lived amidst politics his whole life and experienced his elder brothers playing politics. He could have learnt from them, their mistakes not to hoodwink people but to say the right thing at the right time, win over adversaries and play his game with a straight bat not a crooked bat like those wielded by the brothers.

What went wrong? Where did the 6.9 million go wrong? Can 6.9 million people be wrong? We can argue for days. However, proof of the pudding is in the eating. Whatever attributes contributing to achievements Gota may have had as the secretary of defence, urban development and a military leader failed to kick in. Reasons could be many. One main reason is he did not choose a situational leadership approach and manage by objectives. Old hat. Yet very relevant. Instead of watching things happen he could have made things happen by being democratic and autocratic as the situation demanded. He could have managed affairs with the end in mind. 

Water under the bridge. His days are almost over. Gota may very well go home. He has to. No other option. People insist. This country needs stability now. We just got a new PM! Unholy matrimony? Or opposites attract with synergy? We live in hope. 

(The writer, who is a frequent columnist for Daily FT, is a senior HR and Management professional, leadership thought provoker, a visiting academic lecturer, business consultant and a corporate learning facilitator. He’s also a senior gazetted officer of the Sri Lanka Army Volunteer Force. Presently he heads ‘The Talent Gallery’ – a consulting firm founded by him. He can be reached at [email protected].)