Opposition unlikely to muster 113 MPs for Vote of No Confidence in Govt.

It is in the national interest that the demonstrators do enter into a non-violent political action front and form a new platform sooner than later to sustain the goodwill they have earned nationally and globally reminding their followers that immediate solutions to the economic bankruptcy will not be forthcoming both from the Government as well as from the Opposition 

• Galle Face Green demonstrators must pick up a Lee Kuan Yew and form a political front

Having displayed discipline, consistency and commitment, over the past nine days and nights, the historically unprecedented, surprisingly undaunted and notably non-violent ‘Peoples Struggle’ at Colombo’s Galle Face Green by the hitherto ‘unknown youths’ of bankrupt Sri Lanka rallying in their teeming thousands has reverberated worldwide with a clear public outcry calling upon the Rajapaksa Government to quit, without sitting over the destiny of 22 million Sri Lankans any longer! But the forsaken trustees of the country have firmly decided to stay put, ignoring the crowing cry to quit the much loved island nation that they are accused of bankrupting!

The time has come for the youths to get ready to field an anti-bankruptcy political front at the earliest forthcoming elections and in particular the next General Elections targeting 150 out of the 225 seats in Parliament, which the suffering people will not grudge, given the history of alleged corruption and mismanagement notoriously known on both sides of the parliamentary floor.

In 1954 at the age of 31, Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, a third generation immigrant from China and a law graduate from Cambridge, England formed in downtown Singapore the ‘People’s Action Party’, gloriously won the next general election and in 1959 became struggling ‘self-governing’ Singapore’s Prime Minister at the age of 35. In 1959, Singapore’s per capita GDP was $ 400 but by 1990, when Lee Kuan Yew stepped down it grew to $ 12,200 and by 1999 it grew to $ 22,000! The Singapore story is the leadership given by a committed Singaporean youth in transforming a land of 640 sq. km with no natural resources from third world to first!

The time has come for Sri Lanka, with immense natural resources unlike Singapore, to look for its own Lee Kuan Yew primarily at Galle Face Green or at any of the sites of the peoples’ struggle in the country or elsewhere.

The greatest regret for the unknown youth would soon unfold when they realise this week that the parliamentary Opposition missed the best opportunity of moving a Vote of No Confidence on the Government during the parliamentary week 5 to 8 April, which followed the Mirihana midnight demonstrations of 31 March when what appeared to be a collapsing Government virtually invited the Opposition to show 113 votes on the floor and to immediately take over the Government! It was then much easier for the Opposition to cobble together the 113 votes including from the 42 frightened Pohottuwa members who moved out of the Government camp possibly fearing demonstrations outside their homes!

Meanwhile the Court order barring former Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal from leaving the country alerted danger signals. Soon thereafter the Chief Government Whip announced firmly in Parliament that the President will not resign, with ‘resistance’ becoming the better option to ‘abdication’! This was followed by the Prime Minister’s Speech to the Nation that conveyed the message that the Government will go on with a newly reconstituted Cabinet. Poorly organised pro-Government demonstrations also followed thereafter while Shantha Bandara from the Podujana Peramuna from the Kurunegala district re-joined the Government, dealing a blow to the slow-moving Opposition.

The new Cabinet is to be sworn in shortly. This too would make it more difficult for the Opposition to secure this week the required 113 votes for the Vote of No Confidence on the Government with the 41 MPs feeling more secure now than they did in the aftermath of the post 31 March Mirihana situation.

In the unlikely event of the Opposition pushing through the Vote of No Confidence in Parliament this week, which is the first constitutional step for ousting an elected Government and if they do form the Government under a new Prime Minister, the next challenge will be to obtain the signatures of two thirds of the whole number of Members of Parliament, namely 150 signatures to oust the President from office under Article 38(1)(e) read with 38 (2) (b) (i) of the Constitution. 

Unless the President resigns amidst continuing political uncertainty and his team’s inability to find urgent solutions to the peoples’ economic woes, President cannot be constitutionally ousted by Parliament alone but that would require in addition the Supreme Court’s inquiry and report concurring on any of the allegations of violation of Article 38(2) by the President.

The Opposition’s failure to push through the No Confidence vote during the 5 to 8 April parliamentary sessions, when the “iron was hot” was believed to be due to the Opposition’s lack of confidence in its own ability to solve the crushing economic threats to the country. That would leave the Galle Face youths having to confront higher stress levels over a longer unsustainable period of time.

With schools and offices reopening after the Sinhala and Tamil new year and if the Government does not confront the peaceful demonstrators, Galle Face demonstrations can fizzle out within a month’s time. It is in the national interest that the demonstrators do enter into a non-violent political action front and form a new platform sooner than later to sustain the goodwill they have earned nationally and globally reminding their followers that immediate solutions to the economic bankruptcy will not be forthcoming both from the Government as well as from the Opposition. 

  (The writer is a former MP.)