Laugh – not love – in the time of coronavirus

VIRAL – smiles! – Pic by Indraratne Balasuriya

A funny thing happened on the way to the Roy-Tho. The WHO declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. 

So there – one would imagine – went ‘the’ Big Match. Any sensible citizen with half a pint of civic consciousness or a social conscience would do the safe, right, healthy thing. Stay at home, watch the game on TV or catch the action via commentary. Or, in this supposedly hi-tech digital age with AI and IoT and whatnot, get in on live-streaming. And, by rules to live under Epidemiology 101, practise social distancing in the personal as well as national interests.

But this was not to be. In a blatant show of tribalism, the old boys from far and wide – including demonstrably countries already badly hit by SARS-CoV-2 – and their ladies and scions congregated to ‘win or lose, we booze’. And in a fit of perhaps hooch-induced braggadocio, some denizens of a boys’ tent posted in-your-face, cock-a-snook-at-you taunts on social media; suggesting that they were to be spared by dint of ‘herd immunity’. O tempora, O mores!

Some of their interlocutors were hardly amused. Very foolish! posted one, pointing out that close proximity under these terms and conditions could make the SSC a veritable epicentre of some Sri Lankan episode of coronavirus contagion. Truly selfish! riposted another, at pains to educate the boastful captains of commerce and industry among other prime examples of corporate privilege and elitism that even a healthy specimen of humanity such as these purported to be could well act as a carrier.

One case

There is sufficient merit in some recent science writing on epidemiology to add gravitas to the arguments of the naysayers. So it’s more than merely armchair punditry. 

For one, a Newsweek opinion piece by ‘A Doctor in Western Europe’ (who chose to remain anonymous because her hospital didn’t authorise her press release). In it, the senior medical practitioner argues that “it’s the civic and moral duty of every person, everywhere, to … postpone any movement or travel that are not vitally essential, and to spread the disease as little as possible”. 

She observes, a little ironically, that “luckily, we don’t have pandemics of this violence every year”; urging her fellow citizens to “sit it out” and “stay put”, concluding: “Don’t travel. It is absolutely not worth it.” 

A few months ago, Western Europeans told themselves: ‘This isn’t so bad. We’re young, we’re fit; we’ll be fine even if we catch it.” Fast-forward sixty-plus days later, and fatality rates in these regions were over 6% – double the global average prevalent at the time. A few weeks ago, ‘Western-orientated Sri Lankans’ told anyone who would listen: ‘We’re doing really well. Maybe because of the heat and high humidity! Or the gallons of warm tea, hot coffee and strong booze we imbibe? So take a chill pill… party like it’s still yesterday!’ Well, after what one ‘old boy’ called The Late Great Big Match That Wasn’t Called Off – a ‘we-are-all-going-to-hell party’ – I think to have called such behaviour ‘foolish’ or ‘selfish’ is understating it a bit. (Don’t bother to reply, sir; I’m not interested in your lame self-justification. And yeah, see you in hell… maybe not.)  

"Let’s not even start talking about postponing elections (that should be a done deal for a regime that claims to care for a republic at severe risk if polls were to proceed in order to consolidate power for the few over the pitiful suffering of those affected by the potential fallout). The other cancellations and urgent cautions are far more paramount. From cocktail parties and community picnics to socio-cultural events where – to the spoiled powerful elites who still run Sri Lanka – it’s just not cricket to call off a ‘Big Match’ in the time of coronavirus. Does it hurt? Only when I laugh…"

Case two

For another, the executive summary of a long and carefully number-crunched analysis in which the writer – a Stanford MBA with two MSc degrees and the creator of viral apps with over 20 million users – illustrates that if you are not properly diagnosing all cases, one death today means there are 800 others infected in your region. In other words, the number of true cases in a country where there is a viral spread of COVID-19 is likely to be one or two orders of magnitude higher than is officially reported. Not to worry you unnecessarily, but consider this idea: 

Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of less than 0.5 (e.g. South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China bar Wuhan/Hubei)

Countries that are not proactive early enough, nor prepared, and therefore overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between 3-5%

Countries that act promptly and prudently can reduce fatalities by a factor of 10

If stats leave you cold, think emotively about Europe and extrapolate rationally to our tropical-island republic:

“The coronavirus is coming to you. It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly. It’s a matter of days: maybe a week or two. When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways. Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die. They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.” 

“The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. TODAY. That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting NOW.” (Emphases added)

“As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this.” 

Make a case

Does your mother – and government – know? It seems so. Yesterday, for instance, the simple expedient of a public, bank and mercantile holiday went miles towards arresting the spread of this often asymptomatic disease. Also, by dint of a little extra disinfectant, many places and services of public import were made briefly, all-importantly, safe… for now. But if the statistics of infected nations are anything to go by, lockdown is coming sooner than later. And rather than panic, as we did last week, it behoves us all to behave with responsible preparation in response to measures being taken by a state with a readymade health system in place. 

That the prioritisation of island-nations as refuges from extreme pandemics – subject of a risk-analysis in an international journal – brings Sri Lanka into the spotlight could be a mixed blessing. 

On the one hand, our insular nature (for once) keeps us relatively isolated from the vagaries of rampant cross-border epidemiology. On the other, under co-dependent governments in debt to our friends overseas (let my reader discern whom), it may mean exemptions being made… for example to returnees from a lunar new year… who, like other islander nationals may have slipped under the radar – their contribution to the coming spike will soon be made manifest; so mum’s the word… for now.

"Any sensible citizen with half a pint of civic consciousness or a social conscience would do the safe, right, healthy thing. Stay at home, watch the game on TV or catch the action via commentary. Or, in this supposedly hi-tech digital age with AI and IoT and whatnot, get in on live-streaming. And, by rules to live under Epidemiology 101, practise social distancing in the personal as well as national interests. But this was not to be. In a blatant show of tribalism, the old boys from far and wide – including demonstrably countries already badly hit by SARS-CoV-2 – and their ladies and scions congregated to ‘win or lose, we booze’. And in a fit of perhaps hooch-induced braggadocio, some denizens of a boys’ tent posted in-your-face, cock-a-snook-at-you taunts on social media; suggesting that they were to be spared by dint of ‘herd immunity’. O tempora, O mores!"

Case closed

Last but by no means least, there’s the encouraging assertion from no less than the Director-General of the World Health Organization Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: “We cannot say this loudly enough, or often enough: all countries can change the course of this pandemic. This is the first pandemic that can be controlled.” Wash your hands. Watch that personal space. Wishful thinking about how it won’t affect you because you’re cool or lucky or blessed or whatever to be abandoned forthwith… 

Let’s not even start talking about postponing elections (that should be a done deal for a regime that claims to care for a republic at severe risk if polls were to proceed in order to consolidate power for the few over the pitiful suffering of those affected by the potential fallout). The other cancellations and urgent cautions are far more paramount. From cocktail parties and community picnics to socio-cultural events where – to the spoiled powerful elites who still run Sri Lanka – it’s just not cricket to call off a ‘Big Match’ in the time of coronavirus. Does it hurt? Only when I laugh…  

[Journalist | Editor-at-Large of LMD | Writer on politics (‘just not cricket’)]