Climate mobilities in Sri Lanka and South Asian region

In the context of climate change, its impacts, and the resulting loss and damage, human mobility is emerging as an important thematic area. There are several key reasons why different forms of mobility – including migration, disaster displacement, planned relocation, and human immobility – should be on the agenda for policymakers, planners, and researchers.

First, an increase in human mobility can act as a compound risk or risk multiplier, as unmanaged migration or displacement can lead to loss of social cohesion, issues to human health and wellbeing, conflict over natural resources, and other negative impacts. This is especially important given other aspects of the overall “polycrisis,” such as economic challenges, global supply chain disruptions, the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, and ripple effects from the war in Ukraine.

Second, people affected by forced, involuntary, or maladaptive mobility often experience a serious deterioration of their livelihoods and wellbeing, for which they require support. This aspect of mobility could be seen as a form of (non-economic) loss and damage, particularly in light of the ongoing international negotiations around a loss and damage fund under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Third, safe and orderly mobility can also be an adaptation strategy if facilitated through robust institutional and policy frameworks. If migrants are motivated, well-equipped, and supported, their movement can contribute to risk management, livelihood diversification, the transfer of knowledge and skills, and resilience-building of both origin and host communities.

Climate change and human mobility in South Asia

As highlighted in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), South Asia will face more intense and frequent heatwaves, humid heat stress, monsoon precipitation, and interannual rainfall variability during the 21st century. In addition, sea level rise is set to cause coastal area loss and shoreline retreat, and extreme weather events will become more common and devastating.

Both rapid-onset events and slow-onset processes can “influence human mobility and migration through [their] effects on the economy and livelihoods” depending on the socio-economic, political, and environmental context. There are different estimates as to the exact numbers, but pessimistic projections expect up to 50 million climate migrants in South Asia alone, and even optimistic one’s count millions to tens of millions of people on the move by 2050.

In Sri Lanka, for example, several forms of climate-related or -influenced mobility can already be observed, including the following:

• Seasonal or cyclical rural-urban migration from agricultural areas, which is increasingly driven by underlying climate impacts that affect livelihoods in the short- (floods, droughts, heat, pests and diseases) or long-term (soil degradation, saline intrusion, ecosystem changes, human-wildlife conflict, invasive alien species)
• Labour migration for foreign employment, where decision-making now often includes climate-related factors, such as climate impacts (heavy rains, heat, water scarcity) to local livelihoods or climate-induced loss of assets and resources
• Disaster displacement and the pre-emptive relocation of vulnerable communities from hazard-prone areas, which is currently taking place predominantly in the context of floods and landslides
• Traditional seasonal migration of fishing communities, mainly between the west and east coast or along the coastline, which is increasingly affected by sea level rise, sea warming, and the resulting changes in marine ecosystems

These forms of mobility and their consequences need to be further investigated, as the current research landscape consists mostly of isolated case studies and general literature on how to connect ground-level evidence with policy processes, including the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans under the UNFCCC.

Furthermore, distinguishing successful from harmful mobility outcomes is a non-trivial challenge that heavily depends on context and the priorities and perspectives of affected communities.

The future of climate mobilities in South Asia

It is clear that climate mobilities will play a role for the future of Sri Lanka and other countries in the South Asian region. However, there are many data gaps when it comes to identifying hotspots and projecting movement patterns over the next decades, especially for internal migration and regarding intersectional vulnerabilities related to income, gender, age, disability, health, and literacy. 

Similarly, policy and anticipatory planning processes should be based on evidence and a deep understanding of the dynamics of affected individuals and communities, their capacities, priorities, needs, and available resources. Based on sea level rise, increasing temperatures, water scarcity, and landslide risks, it would also be important to analyse the projected habitability or uninhabitability of certain areas.

The IPCC report points out that “with adequate policy support, migration in the context of climate change can result in synergies for both adaptation and development,” opening a window for policymakers and other actors to strengthen existing frameworks and systems. For example, in areas of high actual or expected out-migration – the origin areas of migrants and displaced persons –, interventions could include resilience-building, economic diversification, skill development, or improved social protection. In areas of high in-migration – what will be the destination of many migrants, often the larger cities –, there could be measures such urban upgrading, provision of affordable housing, sanitation, and employment opportunities.

Mobility is and has always been a part of human life and livelihoods. Depending on the circumstances and enabling environment, it can be an effective adaptation strategy, a form of loss and damage, a last resort, or a vehicle to mobilise finance and support. It is therefore vital to anticipate the coming patterns of human mobility, understand their relation to climate change, and develop policies, plans, infrastructure, and other systems to address them in a proactive, inclusive, and participatory manner that links the local, national, regional, and global level.

(The writer works as Director – Research and Knowledge Management at SLYCAN Trust, a non-profit think tank based in Sri Lanka. His work focuses on climate change, adaptation, resilience, ecosystem conservation, just transition, human mobility, and a range of related issues. He holds a Master’s degree in Education from the University of Cologne, Germany and is a regular writer to several international and local media outlets.)