Addressing the global climate crisis: IPCC Working Group III Report

In a time rife with global crises and challenges, it can be easy to overlook the publication of another report on climate change. However, the IPCC’s newest output sounds a more urgent alarm than ever, highlighting the existential threat of climate change to humans and the environment as well as the pressing need to scale up climate action and preserve a habitable planet.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC for short, is a global scientific body that produces periodic assessment reports to review and synthesise the state of climate science. As part of these lengthy reports, a summary for policymakers is agreed upon by representatives of all member states and published alongside the full report to provide a condensed version of the key findings that can inform planning and policymaking.

On 4 April 2022, the IPCC has finalised the latest part of its sixth assessment report, which was compiled by working group III. In contrast to working group I and II, which focused on the physical science of climate change, climate-related risks and vulnerabilities, and ways to adapt to climate impacts, the third working group focuses on the big picture: how humans are causing climate change, and how humans can stop it.

The state of the climate crisis

In this regard, the IPCC’s message is clear and highly concerning. The world is not on track to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit global warming to 1.5 or at least well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Total man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to rise over the last decade, and net GHG emissions have increased since 2010 across all major sectors despite existing mitigation efforts.

As the summary for policymakers states: “Emissions reductions in CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes, due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture, and buildings.”

The IPCC report clearly stresses that more decisive and ambitious climate action is needed to limit global warming and prevent the disastrous climate change that a high-temperature world would bring. In 2018, a special IPCC report detailed the significant differences between a 1.5- and 2-degree temperature rise: for example, 2-3 times the loss of animal and plant species, more widespread heatwaves, double the decline of crop harvests and fisheries, or the death of almost all coral reefs. Every degree of warming matters, especially for those who are most vulnerable and exposed—including Sri Lanka, which has been identified as a hotspot for climate impacts, climate-related reduction in living standards, and climate-induced disasters.

For 2 degrees of global warming, science predicts widespread ecosystem degradation, devastating extreme weather events, and huge losses and damages to natural and human systems. Without stronger policies and transformative action, the new IPCC report projects GHG emissions to rise beyond 2025, “leading to a median global warming of 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100.” To prevent such severe impacts, the scientific consensus is clear: countries around the world, particularly those with high emissions, must scale up their mitigation actions and seize what might be the last window of opportunity to stay within a 1.5- or 2-degree world.

Decisive and holistic climate action

At its core, the new IPCC WGIII report focuses on the nature and kind of climate action needed to stop further climate change, outlining options across all sectors to reduce GHG emissions by 2030 and 2050. However, it also has a wider focus that considers the wider social and economic realities connected to such a profound transformation towards clean, green, and (net) zero societies, which are linked to the concepts of just transition and response measures—i.e., leaving no one behind in the shift to carbon-neutral economies and dealing with the internal and cross-border impacts of mitigation policies and actions, respectively.

This wider view is spread out across the almost 3,000 pages of the report, which address multiple thematic areas beyond counting emissions and calculating ways to reduce them. There are detailed chapters on social aspects, land use, urbanisation, international cooperation, investment and finance, technology transfer, innovation, just transition, sustainable development, and other topics, strengthening interconnections with the WGII report as well as programs and policymaking across all levels.

Furthermore, the findings of the IPCC report indicate a range of opportunities for countries to mobilise funding, invest in relevant sectors, and gain economic as well as ecological and socioeconomic benefits. Countries can harness the momentum of innovative and improved technologies with rapidly decreasing costs, such as solar energy, wind energy, or batteries. The transition can create new jobs and opportunities for entrepreneurship, which can be facilitated through amended education curricula, vocational training, “greenskilling,” and a supportive regulatory environment. Established sectors can shift towards clean production and create social and environmental co-benefits while new value chains can provide employment and income for millions of people around the world.

Connecting climate action for a sustainable future

According to the IPCC report, emissions must reach their peak by 2025 to have a chance of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement—a daunting task, but still within the realm of possibility. Furthermore, decisive climate action can pay off beyond reducing emissions, with strong connections established between effective mitigation, sustainable development, and reduction of vulnerabilities. With the right support and a pivot towards increasingly affordable clean technologies, the transformation of livelihoods and economies can benefit the climate as well as the people, including in poor, vulnerable, and developing communities.

(The writer works as Director – Research and Knowledge Management at SLYCAN Trust, a non-profit think tank based in Sri Lanka. His work focuses on climate change, adaptation, resilience, ecosystem conservation, just transition, human mobility, and a range of related issues. He holds a Master’s degree in Education from the University of Cologne, Germany and is a regular writer to several international and local media outlets.)