A tour of our travails

Vote yes for staying conscious, vigilant, financially numerate, and demand transparency, efficiency, effectiveness and ROI. Defend the lives and liberties of the people of this beautiful island. And create an opening for the leaders we need

So, Sri Lanka continues to dominate the world press, a “canary in the mine” foretelling economic meltdown in less developed and poorer countries after disastrous global COVID over-reaction and monetary printing press mania leading to inevitable inflationary pressures worldwide. This has been exacerbated by the Ukrainian conflict, and the most atrocious confection of sadistic and masochistic economic national self-delusion on record.

Professor Mick Moore, a political economist and Professorial Fellow at IDS, founder of The International Centre of Tax and Development (ICTD), who has studied Sri Lanka for close to 50 years calls this “The most man-made and voluntary economic crisis of which I know.” 

This is a damning characterisation to say the least. The fascination with “infrastructure” projects that delivered nothing really other than debt and doubtless kickbacks, the cancelling of the Japanese Light Rail Project and the immense loss of collective face associated with that, jettisoning a large part of the tax revenue in the 2019 budget, this is the stuff that economic suicide is made of.

The unwillingness to far earlier confront and restructure the stockpiling debts are the primary fissures today, compounded then by the persistent fact-free “curfewing” and COVID lock up bungling, and of course the global shock waves from the Ukraine. 

And no, if you look at the diverse consortium of debtors, this could hardly be considered rationally a Chinese trap to “ensnare” Sri Lanka.

A slippery slope from success

Not so long ago, Lanka was justifiably a South Asian success story let’s recall. By 2019, 10 years after its 30-year Civil War (during which greater economic sanity was exercised by far than over the COVID “pandemic”), it had been elevated in the global league tables to an upper middle-income country by World Bank classification. The GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power, is about double that of India, and akin to the poorer countries of Eastern Europe like Ukraine and Moldova, slightly behind Brazil.

Colombo was blossoming into a tourist magnet; quality of the life was on the rise and justified optimism was in the air. 

How quickly reversals of fortune can take place though. This last week airlines were told by authorities to ensure adequacy of fuel supplies as they would not be able to refuel in Lanka. 

For a country with an abundance of food before the madness of the “overnight” organic fertiliser compulsion – truly a delirium too far – it is particularly painful to find us applying for international food aid.

The most manageable, diverse, well-educated of the South Asian countries has essentially become a failed state. And that it has happened completely unnecessarily and avoidably is where the deep well of anger and sense of betrayal among common people comes from. And the elites are sitting there shellshocked, as they simply averted their gaze for far too long from the glaringly obvious warning signs of disaster.

The propagandist distortions of the Western media work overtime to addle the critical faculties of their electorates. Here it seems “murder in broad daylight” worked just fine.

The Fragile States Index

Once called the “Failed States” Index, generated by the ‘The Fund for Peace’, this analyses States across Cohesion, Economic, Political and Social Indicators. The higher the rating, the greater the fragility. Lanka’s “fragility” had increased by 5 points in the last several years. The 2022 assessment is guaranteed to see that vastly accentuated. 

Cohesion indicators

Security apparatus

On the one hand this considers ongoing threats such as bombing, attacks, rebel movements, acts of terrorism. Crime rates, entrenched homicide rates, dissolution of social order all contribute here. Then the presence of a “deep state,” a security intelligence apparatus, armed resistance being mounted to authority in a socially disruptive manner. Violent uprisings on a routine basis are considered.

A key question is how clearly is the military under civilian control? Do private forces have to exist to protect assets? 

Are the police professional and is the proper use of force, legally administered, respected overall? Or does it depend on which “call” they receive?

Factionalised elites

This relates to the fragmentation of state institutions across ethnic, class, racial or other lines. It can also relate to stalemating brinksmanship between cliques or parties, or excessive nationalist political rhetoric that dominates the governing paradigms of a society. Endemic power struggles, political competition outside the electoral process, all factor in. 

Are leaders fairly elected? Are these leaders representative of society? Is there political reconciliation underway where such fault lines exist? Is there a strong sense of cohesion? Is there cross-cultural respect? 

Is wealth concentrated in the hands of a few? Is the middle class declining or stagnant or healthy and growing? Are resources widely distributed? 

Group grievance

This relates to schisms between groups based on identity or other identifying characteristics. This can also have an historical component, where aggrieved communal groups cite injustices from the past. This sometimes goes back centuries. If injustice is “institutionalised” so much the worse.

Is there a “Truth & Reconciliation” process if needed? How actively have groups been reintegrated? Are war criminals apprehended and justly prosecuted? 

Is there freedom of religion? Is there a perceived meritocracy in terms of future opportunity among the young?

Economic indicators

Economic decline

Progressive economic decline, consistent, persistent, insidious, invidious. Per capita income is the primary indicator. Gross National Product, unemployment rates, inflation, productivity, debt, poverty levels and business failures. Sudden changes in commodity prices, collapse or devaluation of the national currency. While this focuses primarily on the “formal economy”, consideration is given to the “illicit” trade, black markets, drug and human trafficking, flights of capital and more.

What percentage of GDP is the government debt? What are the actual and projected interest rates? What is the current and forecasted rate of unemployment? What is the Consumer Confidence Index? 

Is the business climate attractive to FDI? Does the business climate foster and encourage and reinforce internal entrepreneurship? Are their multiple sources of national income? How healthy is each?

Uneven economic development

How widespread is inequality across the economy? Does the performance of the economy move in tandem with the fortunes of most people who make up the economy? 

In addition to tangible inequality, there is also the perception of fairness, of a level playing field, to enterprise and industry paving the way to attractive outcomes. This indicator also assesses the opportunities for groups to improve their economic status, through access to employment, education, or job training, so that today’s “inequality” is not a future economic death sentence. There is upward mobility, and the inequality is not structural.

Does the economic system seem overtly discriminatory? Are hiring practices legally fair? Are there equal rights in society? Is there a housing system for the poor?

To what extent is there free education? Is ongoing adult re-education stressed and fostered? Do ghettoes and slums exist and, if so, are there developmental off ramps?         

The debt kept being downgraded, and after shadow boxing with imaginary COVID containment with fatuous “tests” decoupled from mortality, the tourists finally allowed back in, started flooding in, but alas the Russia and the Ukraine’s conflict took the wind out of those sails, as did the forex woes producing fuel queues and 13-hour power cuts

Human flight and brain drain

Here the economic cost of human displacement (for economic or political reasons) is considered, and the consequences this can have on the future trajectory of national development. 

This can encompass voluntary migration, and it has real impact when economically productive segments of the population lead this exodus. Particularly, entrepreneurs or skilled workers or physicians, because of the economic and social deterioration of their home country.

Of course, additionally you may have forced displacement of professionals or intellectuals due to actual or feared persecution. There is a mounting cost that accrues when the productive, skilled professional labour no longer finds living at home to be viable. 

So, are a high percentage of professionals leaving the country? Are an increasing number of those with higher educations being readily lured away? 

What is the health of overseas remittances and are they coming in via traditional banking channels or via other routes?

Political indicators

State legitimacy

Are political state structures fairly open and representative of government’s relationship with its citizenry? What is the level of confidence in the judiciary and other state institutions? Is that confidence manifested through the ability for peaceful public demonstrations, attendance at decision making councils, voter turnout, rather than armed insurrections?

Government openness is an indicator here, and the ability to gather the view and voice of the people is crucial. Ruling elites, even where democratic processes are more “informal” need to be transparent, accountable, with no recurring discriminatory exclusionary tendencies. 

The presence of corruption, profiteering, marginalising, persecuting, are of course contrary indicators. Government and institutions are also funded through confidence in the ability to gather taxes, and the co-equal trust that taxed revenue will be dutifully deployed for advancing the aims and aspirations of citizens. 

Does the government clearly have the confidence of its people? Do cause-based peaceful protests take place? 

Or, on the other hand, is there clear evidence of corruption on the part of public officials? Are political parties treated in a way that protects their rights? Is there a history of peaceful transitions of power? Are elections perceived to be free and fair? Have elections been monitored to corroborate this? 

And certainly, the regular presence of political assassinations, armed insurgencies or terrorism demonstrate far greater fragility in terms of State integrity and viability.

Public services

This assesses the provision of essential services relating to health, education, water and sanitation, transport infrastructure, electricity and power, internet connectivity and bandwidth, etc. 

It also looks at the State’s ability to protect its citizens, effective policing and more.

And across this continuum are the services shared widely, or are they at the beck and call of ruling elites? Do services first and foremost get mobilised for security agencies, presidential entourage, central bank, diplomatic services, whereas providing inconsistent support and service to rural and urban populations?

Is there relatively equal access to public services? Are government services quick, reliable and efficient? Are there adequate medical facilities for the population? How is the quality of sanitation? Is infant mortality at globally benchmarked norms?

What is the literacy level? The rate of women’s education? Onto housing, once more, access to housing for the poor? Are costs in line with the general economy? 

Is there an adequate supply of fuel? Are there well-functioning, readily accessible, airports, roads, railways, consistent with the development level?

Human rights and the rule of law

Are fundamental human rights enumerated and protected? Is there widespread abuse of legal, political or human rights? Are individuals, groups, institutions (like the press or judiciary) free of harassment or repression? 

What is also assessed is politicisation of judicial processes, the military deployed for political ends, denial of due process, emerging authoritarianism or dictatorial default settings that bypass or annul constitutional and democratic institutions and processes.

Are minority rights in place and are they enforced? Are civil rights laws robust and protected? Is freedom of speech guaranteed? Is religious extremism unable to find the irrigation and sponsorship it needs to flourish? 

Are child labour laws in place? Is there effective legal resistance to any systemic violation of rights whether by government or otherwise? Is there independent media and are they able to accuse those in power? 

Is there freedom from arbitrary arrest? Are fair trials the norm? Are people treated humanely and transparently if accused?

Social and cross-cutting indicators

Demographic pressures

Here the assessment relates to population pressures relating to food supply, access to safe water and other key resources, or health services during normal times and also when dealing with outbreaks of disease or epidemics. 

High population growth rates can be an indicator, or divergent rates of population growth among competing communal groups. There are clear and pervasive social, economic and political ramifications flowing from these. 

Response to extreme environmental or weather effects on the population and environmental hazards are also to be factored in.

Is the population growth sustainable? Is population density putting undue pressure on parts of the State? Is there a high orphan population?

Is there an effective public health system for controlling the spread of diseases or pandemics?

What are the main medical killers in society and are they being effectively addressed?

Are there short-term or long-term food shortages? Are there sound environmental policies that are sustainable? Is there access to adequate potable water?

How quickly reversals of fortune can take place though. This last week airlines were told by authorities to ensure adequacy of fuel supplies as they would not be able to refuel in Lanka. For a country with an abundance of food before the madness of the “overnight” organic fertiliser compulsion – truly a delirium too far – it is particularly painful to find us applying for international food aid

Refugees and IDPs

This relates to the pressure upon States caused by the forced displacement of large communities (social, political, environmental or other causes) both internally as well as refugee flows. Such inflows can put extreme pressure on public services and resources and precipitate broader humanitarian and security challenges. 

By also measuring the country of origin of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) and Refugees, the significance of violence, environmental or other factors can be woven in. When the numbers are significant enough this can in population per capita terms affect the human development trajectory of the society.

Is there a sizable inflow of refugees? Are they integrated or put into communities? How many IDPs are there in relation to population? Is there access to additional resources from the international community to address this?

External intervention

How significant is the intervention of external actors in the functioning, particularly the security and economic realities, of the State? External intervention can be experienced covertly or overtly putting internal affairs at risk. The balance of power within a State can be impacted.

External impact is also felt through multilateral organisations, large-scale loans, developmental projects, or foreign aid, such as ongoing budget support, control of finances, debtor management, management of the state’s economic policy, fostering of economic dependency. 

Is there any external support of factions opposed to the government? Are there foreign troops present? Are there peacekeeping operations on the ground? Is there external support for police training? 

Is the country receiving significant economic aid such that they would be on economic life-support without it? Is there outright dependence on such aid and support, and what does that do in terms of autonomy or economic flexibility and capability?

And forward ho

That rather extensive deep dive into what determines “fragility” by global standards shows the interlocking woes of Sri Lanka’s government and political and economic apparatus. 

It is what happens when there is an egregious, toxic brew of hubris, mismanagement and demonstrated venality of political elites including the “ruling clan”, and frankly irresponsible borrowing detached from any real developmental “value”.

The Sri Lanka rupee as of April had lost 44% of its value since August 2020, and inflation (the world’s worst – yet another singular achievement) has hovered near 75% percent per year.

I have written and already mentioned the wasteful “megaprojects” which either had no strategic conception underwriting them, or utterly botched execution and the inability to focus and discipline the resources required to pull them off. 

Constitutional power-concentrating debauchery (that is now being chipped away at painstakingly and incrementally), tax cuts, the earlier written about organic fertiliser quackery by overnight banning chemical fertiliser, the “greatest hits” of self-chosen economic collapse are terrifying when assembled for review.

And again, you have to ask, where was the intelligentsia? Where were corporate stakeholders? Where were any advisers or influencers who were not either full scale nepotists or outright cretins or both? 

The debt kept being downgraded, and after shadow boxing with imaginary COVID containment with fatuous “tests” decoupled from mortality, the tourists finally allowed back in, started flooding in, but alas the Russia and the Ukraine’s conflict took the wind out of those sails, as did the forex woes producing fuel queues and 13-hour power cuts. 

And then we had protests spilling out into the street and conflagration galore. These are not usually ways to woo the foreign traveller to come and spend.

Time to create anew

Timing is often everything. When you start and what you start, and then your quality of follow through. So everything will need undoing and redoing.

And it will have to be meticulous. And if we get stability, then the current stable can be cleaned out and fresh leadership finally, finally be inducted. We cannot currently afford instant reformation. We will get revolutionary anarchy instead.

The other danger is that as things improve, any transformational ardour cools. But let us revert to the anchoring wisdom of the “Fragility Index”. Hardiness is not an accident, it’s not chest pounding, it certainly is not fevered rhetoric. 

It is the prosaic job of building the civilisational circuit breakers that keep anarchy at bay, that endow sovereignty with meaning, that renew our pact with progress and possibility.

Let us go global and look at the tawdry World Pandemic Treaty that would have given the WHO at least “influencing rights” in health emergencies.  After their catastrophically getting everything wrong during the COVID disaster (airborne, age stratified, only a risk to an elderly minority with multiple compounding illnesses, undeterred by locking up the healthy(!), unaffected by face nappies as data repeatedly shows, undeterred by “vaccines” that don’t stop reinfection or spread but seem to stimulate all cause mortality after boosters as we have seen in multiple cycles in Europe now), why would anyone want them at the helm?

But the rich nations were all there, ready to kowtow, because they are the funders, the puppeteers perhaps? But a stunning knockback came via the Third World, who were done being hoodwinked. A tranche of African nations, along with Bangladesh, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Iran, refused to be railroaded, and Brazil threated to leave the WHO if the measures went through.

And the World Pandemic Treaty referendum petition in the UK has amassed far more than the needed 150,000 signatures required to instigate potential Parliamentary debate. 

Manic panic aside, a stand was taken. A tide turned back. We need this here. 

And here locally, everyone has to come together to identify and pick the really important battles and take a stand. 

Vote yes for staying conscious, vigilant, financially numerate, and demand transparency, efficiency, effectiveness and ROI. Defend the lives and liberties of the people of this beautiful Island. And create an opening for the leaders we need.