TRS sees small global sugar surplus in 2017/18

Friday, 17 February 2017 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Sugar production to rise partly by response to high prices
Improved weather post 2014-16 El Nino to also boost output

London (Reuters): A small global sugar surplus is forecast for the 2017/18 season but stocks will remain almost unchanged at “historically low levels,” Tropical Research Services said in a report.

TRS forecast there would be a surplus of 1.365 million tonnes, raw value, following deficits of 8.303 million in 2016/17 and 6.597 million in 2015/16.

The drawdown in stocks during the two seasons meant there was “little latitude for underperformance in the major sugar producing countries,” the report said. Global sugar production in 2017/18 was forecast to rise to 187.14 million tonnes, up from 174.89 million in the prior season with consumption set to climb to 185.78 million from 183.19 million.

“Elevated sugar prices had stimulated a significant sugar supply response globally which will combine with an expected normalisation of sugar production levels in the drought affected regions of Asia and Africa and the liberalisation of the EU sugar regime in order to bolster global sugar supply in the 2017/18 crop year and beyond, weather permitting,” TRS said.

An El Nino weather event in 2014-16 reduced sugar production in several countries including India and contributed to the two season drawdown in global stocks.