Global rice crop in 2012 to be marginally up to 459 m tons

International Grains Council (IGC) is forecasting the world’s rice production to go up marginally by 2% to 459 million tons in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) because of increases in Asia, notably in China and India, it said.

It said the record outturn will be accompanied by a further expansion in global use, to 458m. tons (448m.), with the carryover placed at a nine-year high of 98m. (96m.).

Inventories in the five major exporters are projected to rise by 10%, to an all-time high of 31.9m. tons, due to increases in India and Thailand.

World trade in calendar 2012 is forecast to contract sharply, by 8%, to 31.5m. tons, owing to significantly reduced shipments to markets in Far East Asia

Rice exports from India, the world second-largest producer, may go up by 32 per cent to five million tons whilst shipments from Pakistan too are expected to see a jump of 32 per cent to 3.7 mt from 2.8 mt, according to IGC. India’s rice exports are projected to increase to five mt this year from 3.8 mt in 2011, said IGC, which forecast rice exports for five major exporters.  Forecast for India is based on assumption that the government will continue non-basmati rice exports that was allowed in September 2011 and in anticipation of higher production.  India has kept a target of a record 102 mt of rice production in 2011-12 crop year (July-June). Basmati rice shipments are allowed at a minimum export price (MEP) of USD 900 per tonne. Pakistan does not follow any MEP regime.  According to the IGC report, barring India and Pakistan, rice exports from Thailand, Vietnam and the US are expected to be lower in the current calendar year.

While shipments from Thailand may drop to 7.2 mt in 2012 from 10.5 mt last year, rice exports from Vietnam are likely to decline to 6.5 mt from 7.1 mt in the concerned period. Similarly, shipments from the US are expected fall to 3.1 mt in 2012 from 3.3 mt last year.

Exports from other countries are seen declining to 6.3 mt in 2012 against an estimated 6.8 mt last year.

As regards rice imports, IGC noted that the total global shipments are seen to be down at 31.5 mt this year against 34.1 mt last year, due to significantly reduced imports to markets in Far East Asia.