Flagging off the poll

After months of uncertainty, the Election Commission has decided the General Election will be held on 5 August. The announcement, which came yesterday, puts to rest much speculation and flags off the various aspects of electioneering in the midst of COVID-19 mitigation. 

This election is already set to be a historic one as it will be the first to be held in the middle of a global pandemic. As Election Commission Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya himself has repeatedly stated, this will mean that mock elections will have to be held around the country before the real polls are finally conducted. 

Getting people used to social distancing measures, ensuring that the record number of officials needed to carry out the polls are trained, and a level playing field is maintained for the election will make this by far the most challenging vote held in history. 

Political parties will now have to swing into action with zest and dexterity. Not only do they have just a few weeks to campaign, they also have to do so in vastly different circumstances than earlier. Most of the campaign will have to be online and with large rallies impossible, reaching out to people will have to be done with greater creativity and poignancy. How younger, first time and minority voters behave will also make for an interesting analysis in this election.    

Obviously the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is out in front and this is essentially their election to lose with only the two-thirds question to be resolved. However, things are not as simple as they may seem at first glance with the loyalists of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and the Viyathmaga members of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa vying for prominence within the SLPP. 

For now it would seem that the Viyathmaga nominees are on the back foot, having managed to snatch fewer than expected nominations but their preferential vote capacity will indicate how the SLPP may evolve in the years to come and what power balance will exist between the two brothers once the votes are counted. 

Whether they were his pick or not, the President will have to rely on the SLPP parliamentarians to implement his policies and these could see interesting dynamics emerge as the party moves to implement some of the more challenging proposals in the President’s manifesto, which includes a new Constitution. 

The party has also said it will reverse the 19th Amendment, and if they are given a two-thirds majority, the result could have a deep impact on Sri Lanka’s democracy. The party will also have to balance what is seen as its pro-China tilt and give a clearer picture of how it will navigate global relations in the uncertain post-COVID-19 world. 

Already at loggerheads the United National Party (UNP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) will likely have to contend with a deeply disillusioned and split vote base. The voter turnout for the Parliamentary Election may be lesser than the high turnout seen for the vibrantly contested Presidential Election, and many who opt to sit out may well belong to the UNP/SJB quota. 

One of the key challenges for the Opposition will be to convince people to keep the faith with them. Neither the UNP nor the SJB has really worked to shore up their minority vote bases that strongly supported them during the Presidential Election in November, and this oversight could cost them dearly. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is also unlikely to impress though one can never say where voters will turn until the count is done. 

As everyone steps up to the starting line, it is now up to the public to pick the best from a largely unimpressive group of candidates.