End to uncertainty?

For months most Sri Lankans have been feverishly engaged in speculating on the potential Presidential candidates that may be put forward by the respective political parties. As the days tick down, there are clear signs that much of the speculation may be laid to rest by next month. 

Political analysts are watching with a hawk eye the manoeuvres of the United National Party (UNP), the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). The latter was the first to announce that their Presidential candidate is likely to be announced at the party’s first national convention on 11 August. The date, less than two weeks from now, is also expected to be the event that will see Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa officially become a member of the SLPP. 

Even though many were hopeful of seeing former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa being named as the SLPP candidate, there has been no definitive indication that this will in fact be so. The element of surprise is with the SLPP, and if they do indeed announce a candidate on the 11th, they could have momentum on their side as the three main camps move forward in earnest. Even though coalition talks between the SLFP and the SLPP have been ongoing for some time, they have sputtered in the last few weeks, with the SLFP seeking a meeting between President Maithripala Sirisena and Rajapaksa to hold talks on the SLPP candidate. There has been no reports of the meeting taking place yet. 

If the SLPP and the SLFP are unable to agree on a candidate, then the SLFP will go solo in a Presidential Election. The United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which is led by the SLFP, this week announced it will also hold a national convention on 2 September, with its Presidential candidate likely to be announced at the event. This would mean that the upcoming Presidential poll will become a three-horse race, and vote bases may splinter in unexpected ways as a result. 

The UPFA is hoping the United National Party (UNP) will also announce their candidate at some point this month, or at least give strong signs of who their pick will be. The UNP Working Committee, which met on Thursday, has also decided it will form an alliance, which is to be signed on 5 August. If the alliance has a say in how the UNP picks its candidate, the balance of power may shift in favour of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, and put his closest rival on the back foot. Many are hopeful of a change emerging from the UNP, but only time will tell if this hope will be realised. 

For the truly moderate and democratically conscious segment of the vote base, that is serious about change and want to see a fresh and credible candidate, none of the options that have been placed on the table appear very attractive. They may find themselves faced with a very strong compromise in selecting the next President, and the only option to continue the fight from outside the mainstream political sphere, as there is no one who will truly embody the causes of governance, rule of law, minority rights, and economic reform yearned for by them. The business of politics will continue.